Massimo Fuggetta

CIO, Bayes Investments

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

.@mihaljevic I hope it is clearer now

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Prior indifference is a distortion of Bayesian updating. While a correct update takes BR and increases or decreases it according to the likelihood of new evidence, Prior indifference triggers an inadvertent shift of the Base Rate to 50% before the update takes place. As a result, the update builds on Knightian uncertainty and Perfect ignorance, rather than on prior beliefs.

With meaningful, momentous and sometimes tragic consequences.

Link below 👇🏻

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

https://t.co/KswhwNrSwR

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

@mihaljevic The point @mihaljevic is again Laplace's dictum: Extraordinary (improbable) claims require extraordinary (accurate) evidence. So an infection from a rare 1/1000 virus can only be supported by a test that is at least 99.9% accurate.
We shall clearly see it in the next post.

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

https://t.co/W8VX9vtGPt

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Here is the amazing paradox. Without the test, Bob would have reckoned he had a 0.1% probability of infection. With the test, after a positive result, that probability increased 19-fold: it went from 0.1% to 1.9%. But Bob thought it had gone all the way to 95%. He took the test because he wanted more evidence to lead him closer to the truth, but he ended up drifting far away from it. He would have stayed much closer to the truth if he had not taken the test: just like Othello, he was blinded by evidence.

Link in the first reply below👇🏼

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

https://t.co/8xPwbbIUCm

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Dependence on prior beliefs is an inconvenient obstacle in the pursuit of truth. Ideally, we would like evidence to speak for itself, swamp priors and give us certainty. But when evidence is not so obliging, ignoring priors, or pretending they do not exist, is not the right course of action.

Link in first comment👇🏼

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

New Advances Bring the Era of Quantum Computers Closer Than Ever https://t.co/dazYGP31KA via @QuantaMagazine

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

How did Iago manage to sway Othello from Faith to Prior Indifference?

https://t.co/1C6SC8qERU

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Like all of us, Othello is a fallible Bayesian.

He has just learned from the wily Iago that the treasured handkerchief he had given to his beloved wife Desdemona has been discovered in the lodgings of his lieutenant Cassio.

How could this have happened? And how should he begin to make sense of such a troubling discovery?

https://t.co/ZkCXCf0soE

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Nuovo video sul canale YouTube #MadeinItalyCEOs.

@VincePolidoro, Consigliere Esecutivo di @FirstCapitalSpA

L'intera conversazione è qui
👉 https://t.co/uGmv9XRXHk

Con sottotitoli [CC] in italiano ed inglese.

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Good point

The vibe-coding thesis confuses the way software looks with the way software works inside an organization.

[Finbarr Taylor @finbarr]

https://t.co/KRlTbtnA8A

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

https://t.co/WsPZguW5JS

[Yasmine Mohammed 🦋 ياسمين محمد @YasMohammedxx]

#NoHijabDay
#FreeFromHijab

🕊️🕊️🕊️

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

https://t.co/ixdFHyCxVP

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

Where we apply Bayes Theorem to Michael Burry's Nvidia thesis

https://t.co/Izp98XDhqr

[Guy Spier 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 🇨🇭🇬🇧🇮🇷🇦🇪 @GSpier]

No. Because Ayatollah Khamenei is not jewish, is not the head of the one and only jewish state, and his name is not Bibi Netenyahu.

Duh,

[Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta]

We start with P

https://t.co/ZnAvS06YFP

This was the first paid post. An introduction to probability