I make your Internet work

I make sure packets make it to your Hooli phone. Unsniffed. IPOs, 2ndaries, ISOs, RSUs, AMT, IPv6, TCP, and 101. Tech by day investor/econ by night Anon bc job

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

This aged well. $TSLA

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@elonmusk @GerberKawasaki I first bought $TSLA in 2014. Sold at $350, $500, $1200, the week before the Twitter deal closed, and the last bit on Monday. Seriously - thanks for the great returns, but the veneer is off of Elon. The company is overvalued by every measure.

[‏ً @omgsidewalks]

Police DO NOT prevent crime; they respond to it. Crime is prevented by higher wages, guaranteed health care, food security, high-quality child care, housing, good schools, and addiction treatment.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔An NBER study by MIT and Wharton researchers tracked 100,000 GitHub developers before and after adopting AI coding tools. Autonomous agents produced 17x more lines of code. But by the time that work went through review and release, the uplift shrank to 30%. When they checked four major app marketplaces, they found more new apps but no increase in total usage or downloads. More software shipped, but nobody used it.

My Take
The bottleneck in software has always been deciding what to build, reviewing whether it works, and convincing someone to use it. AI accelerated the typing and left all three of those untouched.

The entire financial case for the AI buildout assumes faster output translates to more economic value. This study measured it and found that it mostly doesn't, at least not yet. Alphabet reports Wednesday with $180 billion in capex guidance. If the productivity gains from AI coding tools can't survive contact with the rest of the production chain, the revenue assumptions underneath that spending need to be a lot more conservative than what these companies are currently projecting.

Hedgie🤗

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

The nice thing about Moonshot catching up to US frontier labs now is that it happened before the data center moratorium wave has fully hit, so the US AI guys can’t blame the public for their failure.

They still will of course but we can look at a calendar.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@GaryMarcus Yeah. Not happening without some major changes in the biz.

$ORCL - $357B
$MSFT - $3T
$CSCO $432B
$SAP $200B
$BABA $281B
$NET $98B

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@StockMKTNewz

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@P_Remarks Doesn't really help with the exposure to OpenAI and their gov business is already huge. I don't think it turns the needle a whole lot.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@buccocapital These guys building software need to get over themselves a bit.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@matthewstoller

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@MikeIsaac After the last 18 months, most Americans are too old to remember Joe Biden.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@WUTangKids The notion that Trump could wait more than 20 minutes to present actual damming evidence is hilarious. He's just going to get up and whine.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@unusual_whales Ooh an API for corruption and insider trading. Bloody hell.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The richest Americans have never controlled this much wealth:

The wealth of the top 0.00001% of Americans is up to a record ~12% of US national income.

National income measures the total income earned across the economy, including wages, business profits, and investment income.

This percentage has more than quadrupled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

By comparison, this metric never exceeded 1% between the 1950s and the 1990s.

The surge has been fueled by record gains in the equity market and rising real estate prices.

Asset owners are the only winners.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@Polymarket Fortunately there are only 50 other ways to hear him whine play the victim.

[Stock Market Nerd @StockMarketNerd]

Almost poetic how quickly we’ve gone from Dario talking about Anthropic “replacing all white collar work” to cheap, open weight models potentially ruining his company’s valuation, value prop & IPO.

Life comes at you fast.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@BrendanPedersen An API for corruption.

Maybe this will finally reduce the $DJT multiple from insane to stupid.

Paging @howardlindzon who saw value in the wisdom of the crowd posts long long ago.

[Howard Lindzon @howardlindzon]

people here declaring their switch from openai to grok to claude to gemini to grok to claude is the new I am quitting Twitter

The amount of switching also shows the inevitability of open source for most of this

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@handotdev You are building software. Get over yourself.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

The danger of continuing to act like a third world country is that you might actually become one.

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

@devahaz Why can’t I rent GPUs in a neocloud from Airbnb yet?

[I make your Internet work @middle_cloud]

$ORCL is Cooked

[Adam @ RepVue @thaAdamLittle]

$ORCL