MoatVault

High-potential company deep dives with an assumptions-based valuation calculator. Not investment advice.

[MoatVault @MoatVaultX]

MoatVault is where I do deep dives on high-potential public companies and turn the thesis into an assumptions-based valuation calculator.

Pick a company, adjust the scenario, see what has to be true.

https://t.co/YG6GwxQWPx

[REDRUM 🅰️ @redrum_2001]

$ASTS - Cool, interactive Bluebirds. I want that app!

[SpacBobby @SpacBobby]

$ASTS - Rakuten Q2 Report Confirms: Selected for Japan’s Domestic Satellite Network Development Project (J-LEO)

+ Commercial service, provided by @Rakuten Mobile via @AST_SpaceMobile satellites, is targeted to be launched from Q4/26
*In addition to commercial services starting in Q4/26, we plan to build a communication infrastructure through the J-LEO project. Details to be disclosed once finalized

+ Selected as an indirect subsidy operator under the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ “Japan Low Earth Orbit Satellite Communications Project (J-LEO)”, which supports the development of Japan's own satellite communications network

+ Holding the rights to own and operate satellites, aiming to achieve strong resilience that can maintain Japan's domestic communications infrastructure on a priority and stable basis, unaffected by external environments even in emergencies

+ To achieve resilience to prioritize and stably maintain domestic communication infrastructure in Japan

+ Maximizing capital efficiency to expand business opportunities in the satellite communications domain

H/T: @Defiantclient2

https://t.co/1kWpCbaMaW

[Peter LINDM🅰️RK @peterlindmark]

$ASTS The Only Solution

[REDRUM 🅰️ @redrum_2001]

$ASTS - Rakuten CEO Mikitani comments J-LEO

"AST SpaceMobile's J-LEO project in Japan will become extremely important going forward,"

"To be honest, Starlink's short messaging service might only work if you can see the sky, but I personally feel that broadband (high-speed, high-capacity communication) is technically quite difficult to implement." In response, he said, "AST SpaceMobile has the potential to become the only (broadband) service in sparsely populated areas and at sea in the future," emphasizing its potential as a high-speed internet communication service that supports daily life and economic activities."

"We believe that this will become a service that can be used in various ways for the benefit of our country, and that we are bearing the extremely important responsibility of realizing the first low-Earth orbit satellite with Japanese nationality,"

"Creating a system that can continue services even during power outages, and above all, the ability of AST SpaceMobile to provide broadband, are extremely important,"

"In the event of a major disaster like this, we can flexibly move the target area. We want to realize a system where we allocate a more generous frequency band to the affected area and continue providing services."

[Peter LINDM🅰️RK @peterlindmark]

$ASTS @AST_SpaceMobile Doing God's Work

[Endless Capit🅰️l @endless_frank]

$ASTS The confirmation of JLEO and announcement of commercial services in Japan, which the company will talk about tonight on the earnings call, will generate enough recurring revenue to account for more than the entire current market cap.

It is mind boggling that this stock is this low and this heavily shorted considering all the other revenue streams that are coming. Revenue and positive cash flow are going to explode higher over the next 24 months.

[$ASTS SpaceMob 🅰️ @ASTS_SpaceMob]

A 50% earnings pop would be nice for old time sake

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$ASTS and Rakuten are selected for Japan’s ~$1B J-LEO satellite communications project with Rakuten targeting Q4 2026 for initial commercial AST SpaceMobile service.

The award gives the partnership a path to build and operate sovereign satellite infrastructure in Japan while expanding ASTS from carrier coverage into nationally strategic communications infrastructure.

[$ASTS SpaceMob 🅰️ @ASTS_SpaceMob]

And yet the market still hasn’t priced this in… 🤦‍♂️ $ASTS

[$ASTS SpaceMob 🅰️ @ASTS_SpaceMob]

AST Spacemobile basically was just officially awarded a $1bn contract from Japan and people are selling…

Wait until you see what the US gov pays them eventually or other nations and we build this crucial global infrastructure.

$ASTS is a steal

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: The current short interest as % of tradable float is approximately 27.1%

Assumptions:
➡️388.1M shares outstanding
➡️Remove 65.9M shares owned by Rakuten, Cisneros, Google, AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone American Tower, Bell Canada and Telus
➡️Remove 78.2M shares owned by Abel
= Actual tradable float: 244.1M shares

➡️86.2M shares short
➡️Remove 20M shares short from convert arbs (assume 80% ownership of outstanding converts)
= Net Short Interest 66.2M shares

% of Float Short (ex Convert Hedging) = 27.1%

[Tuff_4r @tuff_4r]

$ASTS - “We’re buyers of launch across entire heavy launch footprint…that we’ve been prepared years ago…as we’ve been doing integration activities with others to get ready for potential launches…these other launches we’ve developed for some time we’ll have updates on as appropriate.”

Updates today? Probabl-y.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: So now we have 👇

+ @AbelAvellan and @scottwisniews guiding beta service later this year (BB25)
+ @Rakuten_Mobile guiding Q4 2026 service start (probably aligning with US timeline with BB25)
+ @VodafoneGroup CEO guiding for beta service with BB45 in early 2027 "based on the new replanning"

Clearly there is a new launch plan and @AST_SpaceMobile has communicated the plan to their core MNO partners. Let's hear it today afterhours in AST's Q2 update!

[SpacBobby @SpacBobby]

$ASTS / $RKLB - Q2 earnings out for both after market close on Aug 10th:

Estimates:

Rocket Lab:

Rev: $232.1M, EPS: -$0.08, EDBITDA: -$22.1M, Implied Vol: 13.59%

Key Catalysts: Neutron still on track for Q4, 26 maiden launch, revenue backlog expansion, additional gov't/defense awards, Iridium acquistion update.

AST SpaceMobile:

Rev: $34.9M, EPS: -$0.29, EBITDA: -$66.8M, Implied Vol: 13.11%

Key Catalysts: J-LEO update, beta service launch, U.S. JV update, 45 sat target date.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

WHY $ASTS DOESN’T NEED TO OWN THE CUSTOMER

AST uses BlueBird satellites in low Earth orbit to connect ordinary smartphones directly to broadband at speeds up to ~200 Mbps then routes that traffic through ground gateways back into the carrier’s existing network.

That lets AST extend coverage for nearly 60 MNO partners covering 3B+ subscribers without requiring new phones, apps or billing while using the carriers’ spectrum and customer relationships.

The model is essentially a wholesale revenue share so AST keeps 50% of subscription and day-pass revenue with estimates scaling from ~3M subscribers and ~300M of subscription revenue in 2027 to ~30M subscribers, ~$2B of subscription revenue by 2030.

The technology is proven but the next phase is a lot of execution because reaching those estimates depends on launching enough BlueBirds, adding gateways and securing country-by-country approvals to turn intermittent coverage into a continuous commercial network.

[SpacBobby @SpacBobby]

$ASTS - Institutions kept loading over the last correction because they know what’s to come!

[scott powell @scott_m_powell]

$ASTS Chart showing how ASTS stock traded the following day post earnings for the last 12 quarters:

Guesses for how we close Tuesday?

[Theodorus The Atheist @TheodorusAtheos]

$ASTS Getting ready for tomorrow 🚀

Second Quarter 2026 Results
Monday, August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT

Webast:
https://t.co/Mp04RvbySw

[C🅰️tSE @CatSE___ApeX___]

$ASTS 🎯

Investors in $SPCX should ask themselves why Starlink stopped launching direct to device satellites beyond fielding an initial single sat tier. And why such sparse coverage needed a waiver:

Their tech suffers from law of diminishing returns and can not scale.

[Tut C🅰️pital @kingtutcap]

Whether you like it or not