Moe Ibrahim

Co-Founder & CIO, YMC Capital. 30 yrs in Asian distressed credit & special situations. Ex-Lazard. Writing YMC Insights on stuck capital ↓

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

In Asian credit and workouts since the late 90s.

What I see most now isn't blowups. It's capital that's just stuck. LP stakes with no bid, loans to friends nobody mentions, stuff marked at par that hasn't paid in years.

We write about it here: https://t.co/2MzcDpY4Nt

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@business how much of singapore's piped gas still comes from indo these days. do the gencos have enough lng cover or does this end up in their margins

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@business the indo dollar bonds already moved wider on this. did they get into which groups actually have to refinance next year

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

private credit funds mostly lend floating but the hurdle is usually a fixed number

when base rates went up a lot of that hurdle got cleared without the manager doing anything clever

anyone seen an lp actually get a sofr linked hurdle into the docs?

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@Restructuring__ funny timing, this is usually when restructuring gets interesting. are they mostly going to ai stuff or all over the place

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@business which jetblue paper is organizing here, the loyalty backed notes or the unsecureds

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@mileskimball true until a workout drags on and the marks stay stale. do you think the lack of daily pricing helps lenders get to the table early, or does it just delay the hard conversation?

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@SCapStrategist how much of the wider spread do you think is real refi risk vs index funds just forced to sell? curious if the 2027 maturities look manageable

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@ZeGoodTrader fair. are you waiting for rates vol to calm before adding more, or scaling in on the way down?

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

bloomberg has indo corporate dollar bond spreads at a six year wide vs asian peers after the msci warning

equity got all the headlines this week but this is the bit that matters for anyone refinancing next year

is real money actually selling or is it mostly dealers marking it down

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

lseg paying ~3.5bn for octus tells you what distressed data is worth in the us

in sea most of that still isn't on a screen. who holds the bonds, what the docs actually say, who's on the committee. it's mostly phone calls

anyone found a decent source for indonesian creditor info or is it still just who you know

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@IlliquidInsight makes sense. finding operators who actually know the local market was the hard part for us. do these funds keep a bench ready or hire per deal

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@business are indo dollar bonds actually moving on this or is it mostly the equity side getting hit

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@EnergyCredit1 being up that year was the whole thing. plenty of people had the right idea and couldn't act on it. did you hold the converts to maturity or flip them

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@Restructuring__ who's checking transfer restrictions on that stuff though. half those stakes probably can't legally change hands

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@business so the good stuff moves out of reach of the bonds. do the indentures actually allow this or does someone sue

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@business where are the bonds trading now? curious if the loyalty-backed notes are holding up better than the unsecured

[Moe Ibrahim @moeibrahimsg]

@briandelucia how do you think the semi liquid vehicles hold up if redemptions pick up and loans cant be sold