Austin Muñoz

Investment Partner at @ambergroup_io | Former HF analyst covering video games | Studied quant finance @YaleSOM | 🇵🇷

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

US 4Q CUR ACT REVISED TO DEFICIT $221.1B VS DEFICIT $190.7B

[Plasma @Plasma]

Plasma One is live now.

Join in the next 7 days and get the Core tier free for your first year. Over $1,000 in value, reserved for early users.

[ambient.xyz @ambient_xyz]

5/9:
Today we launch our own agentic harness: Ambient Desktop.

A pleasant, local-friendly workstation for Mac, Windows & Linux. Model orchestration engine and miner in one. Curated, vetted high-utility plugins, and a security model that lets you safely run the agent on your real machine instead of a quarantined Mac mini.

[ambient.xyz @ambient_xyz]

In just two weeks: some of the largest supply-chain attacks in history, a major commercial LLM sabotaging legitimate ML research requests, and a US export ban kneecapping the world's access to a major model release. More than ever, we need Open, Verifiable Inference.

Today we start shipping direct responses. A🧵:

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@BobEUnlimited Mine fell a lot, like 30-40% or so

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@BobEUnlimited Yeah but it has Micron and Intel in its top-10 holdings. Also Exxon.

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@buccocapital @DeepDishEnjoyer Idk man, real readers know that referencing things you underlined and pages you marked months ago is actually kind of a pain and also doesn’t work if you wanna borrow books from the library

I’m normally not a fan of extra gadgets but this one actually could be kinda nice

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@VictorTaelin “Shorter please. Just put it all on a single line of text.”

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

US API Crude Oil Stock Change Actual -4.47M (Forecast -1M, Previous 6.1M)

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@DeepDishEnjoyer Yikes… S&P gonna be down as much as 12bps until at least noon tomorrow

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@ericnuttall Hey Eric, oil tourist question here:

How long would the strait need to be closed for oil inventories, including SPRs, to be totally depleted (or brought down to their operational minimums)?

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@HFI_Research @MarineTraffic Ah thank you! Super helpful!

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Iran's only leverage is its demonstrated ability to impose massive economic costs on the entire world at will and for an undetermined length of time.

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@mattvsmith01 @Kpler Ah yeah, duh. Thank you!

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@AndreasSteno Unclear if it is Iraqi ships or Iraqi oil though. Big difference between the two as Iraq apparently doesn’t have many ships

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@Rory_Johnston Does Iraq have a lot of ships?

And do you think they’ll be allowed to sell oil to anyone they want, or only certain recipients?

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@JaguarAnalytics @trentkelp The market would probably be ok with that, but those two conditions don’t seem likely to happen at the same time

Bombing = strait closed
No Iran-approved deal = strait closed
Serious war escalation = strait mined?

[Austin Muñoz @moon_yose]

@robertwrighter Sure, but this assumes that they reopen the strait to the US and its allies even without a definitive deal, which seems unlikely.

What would stop Israel/the US/GCCs/etc from attacking Iran in six months to reclaim the strait entirely?