@huntwinkk@GulagJamun_ She went to the United States to study in high school, went to an American university and taught in the United States, not a doctoral student in Beijing.
"You need to remain abreast of Beijing's policy dialogue to read the tea leaves of the Communist Party's intentions."
I am surprised you are suggesting that the problem is that I don't know that Beijing believes it is serious about wanting to raise the role of consumption in driving growth. Of course I know. Everyone knows, and has known for years.
That's also what the Japanese wanted in 1986. But simply saying they want it isn't enough, and I would have thought that after several years of failure in China, it might have become obvious by now that there is a difference between what is politically desirable and what is economically likely.
Beijing wants to raise the role of consumption in driving growth, but it also wants to do so without undermining growth. That's the real problem, and eventually many more policy advisors will understand that low consumption is not just an accident, or something an absent-minded policymaker forgot to do. It is fundamental to the structure of the economy.
This means that to raise the consumption share of the economy, wishful thinking is not enough. As we saw with Japan in the 1980s and after the adjustment began, China cannot sustainably raise the consumption share of GDP by more than an insignificant amount without undermining its manufacturing competitiveness, and with manufacturing representing such a high share of GDP (even higher than property development at its peak), China also cannot raise the consumption share of GDP without slowing GDP growth.
I am still a little shocked that there seems to be so little interest in understanding why other countries have wanted to do the same thing and found it so difficult.