Reuben Cohen

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@jay_neyer true, but if the extra LTV is just prepaid product, the higher CAC ceiling can disappear fast.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@johntech778 It lifts the first yes. Whether it costs you later depends on why they subscribed. If they only ticked it for 20% off, cancel-anytime just makes the later no faster; which is still better than a chargeback!!

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@linafahizul Yes. The frameworks on this timeline were written for brands that can float an eight-figure hole on order one. At $200k a month that hole is just next month’s ad budget disappearing.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@chakirbillionzz the real question is whether that 10% drives new demand or just pulls future orders forward.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@AdebanjiFe35705

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@_ecomsam 3-pack default only works if people still convert. sometimes AOV goes up simply because the cheap option is gone, and the one-jar buyers just bounce

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@AaronOrendorff @justthethibs @bernardgmeyer @OisinO @codyplof @mbertulli The “no promos to subs” line is the one brands ignore first. Once you train them that the only reason to stay is 20% off, you’ve already written January’s churn email.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@9operators point 8 is the sneaky one. if month 2 never happens, that subscribe-and-save discount was really just a cheaper first order 😬

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@CarlWeische 👀👀👀

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@ecomrat @ecomcowboy @DTCMidas @jforjacob @conortrains that band is usually where first-order contribution and conversion can still coexist. under it you're betting the LTV, over it you're betting the conversion rate.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@ArbMails the pause/skip people are the ones that need a different letter. blended "active subscribers" treats a two-skip customer like a healthy one.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@halalmails the 30% also trains the January list. they don't come back at full price because november taught them not to. a cheap gift only works if they actually value it ; most GWP tests never check that.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@linafahizul beauty cadence is a guess dressed up as a plan. if usage isn't predictable, a 2 or 3 pack on order one is cleaner than a 30-day rebill they didn't ask for.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@rahijain save rate is a button metric. if they never take another charge, you didn't save them. you delayed the cancel by a week.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@AdamKitchen_co not that surprising if the bundle just pulled forward the next two orders. 180-day LTV looks worse because you already sold month 2 and 3 on day one.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@JackHenryPaxton @dtcprophet default the single and leave the 2-pack next to it. default the bundle and you buy AOV with people who would have paid $25 and now bounce.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@shanerostad @dtcprophet right. you didn't raise AOV, you borrowed month two and three and spent them on today's CAC. looks fine until the reorder never arrives.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@DTCMidas the audience shrink is the expensive part. AOV went up, the bid went with it, and you're suddenly shopping a thinner slice of the same catalog.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

@dtcprophet the $79 sub is the giveaway. that's not an AOV lift, that's asking a stranger to prepay three months of something they haven't tried. conversion takes the hit before LTV ever shows up.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

And processors keep the original processing fee on a refund. Stripe's published policy spells that out. Every reversed $97 leaves about $3 with your processor, so the timer's refund tail costs you on the amount and on the fee.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

Illustrative: 1,000 buyers of a $47 digital product with a one-click $97 upsell. No timer, 8% take and 6% of those upsells refunded. Add a ten-minute countdown and say take goes to 12%, refunds to 14%. Both numbers move, and most timer tests show you only the first.

[Reuben Cohen @MRRubyCohen]

Your read is net revenue per front-end buyer with the refund window closed, and on digital products that window runs weeks past the sale. A take rate you measure on day two is a forecast.