Vires in Numeris ⚡

#bitcoin

[Fathers Diary @Fathers_Diary]

As a man, adulting is realizing;

1. You will die, and most people won’t care after a while.

2. People use you until you’re no longer useful.

3. Most people secretly want you to fail.

4. One day you’ll wish you started today.

5. Most people fake happiness while dying inside.

6. No one is coming to save you.

7. You’ll be judged no matter what you do.

8. Your health is your greatest wealth.

9. Happiness is temporary—discipline is permanent.

10. Success takes longer than you think.

11. No one respects weakness, even if they sympathize.

12. Complaining changes nothing.

13. Not everyone you love will love you back.

14. Money won’t solve all your problems—but it solves most.

15. Social media lies to you every day.

16. You’re replaceable at your job.

17. Life is unfair—get used to it.

18. One day, you’ll run out of days.

19. Regret hurts more than failure.

20. Nobody cares about your excuses. Work harder

The earlier you understand this, the better and easier your life gets.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

I Helped Run Lululemon. Companies Need to Stop Kidding Themselves About A.I. https://t.co/fcOChJtGiT

[Nayib Bukele @nayibbukele]

Cuadra por cuadra... tardará un poco, pero quedará hermoso.

[Pierre Rehov @rehoov]

Quand un homme au service de l’humanité fait involontairement un geste banal qui peut prêter à confusion, c’est l’hallali. Mais quand une ordure antisemite pourrie jusqu’à la moelle reproduit le même geste, en regrettant de n’a pas pouvoir transformer tous les Juifs en kebabs pour les servir à ses amis, ça passe tranquille chez les idiots utiles.

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

Europe joins an extremely exclusive club, of locations warming faster. Other members of the club include [checks notes.......] everywhere else on the planet.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.

Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.

The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.

So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.

As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.

More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.

But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.

Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.

But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.

Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.

OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.

So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.

I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.

And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.

As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy.

Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028.

Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well.

OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet.

So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

专门写给我的中文读者：

绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。

他们的业务涵盖：

谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户）

人形机器人旋转关节减速器

直线执行器

电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。

并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。

目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。

主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。

如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的人形机器人的 4-15%，随着他们进军更多细分领域，这个比例可能还会更高。

我认为没有人能对这类公司进行精确的财务建模，其前景更多取决于未来几年内会有多少人形机器人实现量产。

这其实是对一家能够在每台生产出的人形机器人中占据可观份额的公司，进行的一种方向性做多（directional long）。

在可扩展的规模化量产方面，中国显然是该领域的领导者，许多西方玩家无法将成本降到绿的谐波那样的水平。

随着我们向实体人工智能（physical AI）的规模化迈进，我极其看好机器人这个赛道。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

DID YOU LISTEN ANON?

Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.

$SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform.

For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH.

This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history.

As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route.

I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue.

To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.

[cnLedger @cnLedger]

Chinese company Unitree has unveiled the world's first mass-produced manned mech, a transformable civilian vehicle weighing approximately 500 kg (when carrying a passenger). Pricing starts at $574,000.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Let me recap the earnings call. $MSTR

[blamz @bl4mz]

@nikitabier Don't encourage them man. 🙄

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Coal Equities in 2026

Peabody Energy $BTU +33%
Core Natural Resources $CNR +28%
Alliance Resources $ARLP +28%
Warrior Met Coal $HCC +12%

vs.

Nvidia $NVDA -10%
Meta $META -20%
Microsoft $MSFT -26%

Bloomberg data

[Citrini @citrini]

The Photonics Supply Chain

(from our latest piece "Let There Be Light")

[SpaceX Super Intelligence @SpaceXSI]

Announcing Terafab: the next step towards becoming a galactic civilization
https://t.co/WBCO7qKI8Z

[Roman Helmet Guy @romanhelmetguy]

Islamic terrorist attacks are just blowback from America’s GWOT, which was just blowback from 9/11, which was just blowback from America supporting Israel, which was just blowback from the Ottomans fighting against America and Britain in WW1, which was just blowback from Britain seizing Egypt and supporting Greek freedom from the Ottomans, which was just blowback from the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople and hundreds of years of oppression, which was just blowback from the Crusades, which were just blowback from the Seljuk conquest of Anatolia, which was just blowback from the Byzantine Empire’s expansion into Syria under the Macedonian dynasty, which was just blowback from the Arab conquest of Byzantine Syria and Egypt and North Africa and repeated siege attempts against Constantinople, which was just blowback from the Byzantines no longer paying Arab tribes to defend the frontier against Persia, which was just blowback from an extended Persian invasion of the Byzantine Empire, which was just blowback from 700 years of warfare between Rome and Persia, which was just blowback from Alexander the Great’s conquest of Persia, which was just blowback from Darius and Xerxes’ invasions of Greece, which was just blowback from Athens supporting the Ionian revolts against the Persian Empire, which was just blowback from Cyrus the Great conquering the Ionian Greeks of Anatolia, but before that everybody in history probably got along.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

This is crazy.

I knew from about 2015 that Core devs (Bitcoin's main developer team) was compromised and had sold out, but I never imagined the connection went back to Epstein, of all people.

See the emails below between Core devs and Epstein.

THIS is why Bitcoin stagnated on-chain scaling!
THIS is why they forced RBF (replace-by-fee) to eliminate peer-to-peer cash use!

Core devs neutered $BTC on purpose so it wouldn't compete with globalist fiat and banks. Epstein was just the frontman and deal maker for these powerful entities.

The individuals named below (in the emails with Epstein) either founded Blockstream or worked for Blockstream, with funding ultimately via Epstein.

• Austin Hill: Blockstream co-founder; involved in early entrepreneurship and fundraising.
• Adam Back: Blockstream co-founder & CEO; cryptography expert, inventor of Hashcash.
• Kelly Zakka: Blockstream early team associate; possible administrative/support role in founding phase.
• Ellaina Atra: Blockstream early team associate; similar operational support during startup.
• Francesca Hall: Blockstream co-founder & Team Coordinator/Operations Manager; handles coordination with 11+ years at the company.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

The goal was literally to "take control of the [Bitcoin] developers", as stated here:
https://t.co/nc0obAOai2

[Pavel Durov @durov]

French police is currently raiding X’s office in Paris. France is the only country in the world that is criminally persecuting all social networks that give people some degree of freedom (Telegram, X, TikTok…). Don’t be mistaken: this is not a free country.

[Sam Gatlin @sam_gatlin]

Is the best fundamental analyst on Wall Street foreshadowing a failed breakout in small-caps?