Nashiyu 那时雨

难离难舍想抱紧些 茫茫人生好像荒野

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

DWF 劣迹斑斑

[Choc🏃 @choc07_]

沉默了一周，我决定替我的朋友发声

我的朋友在交易 ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6 的过程中，亏损了将近170万美金。

DEXE 的价格在一天之内从 $46 一泻千里，直接跌到了 $5，跌幅高达 88%，这基本上等同于归零。但这些都不是市场的正常波动，是著名的做市商 DWF 干的好事。

他们用了一个非常聪明的方法绕过监管，把 将近 80 万枚
ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6 全部砸进了交易所，获利将近 4000 万美金。这直接砸出了一个天坑，把所有散户的钱都砸进了自己的口袋。在这一切发生的过程中，链上没有任何预警，散户手里所有的监控工具全部失效——因为这一切并没有发生在链上，而是用一种镜像的方式发生在交易所内部。

这就是他们的所作所为，砸盘获利4000万美元，却成功逃过了监管。

一、我朋友的遭遇

我朋友是一个 Crypto 大户，在圈子里做交易做了很多年。

大概从 7 月初开始，他就一直在建仓 DEXE。那时候DEXE 一路拉升到历史新高接近 $49.4，市场情绪高涨，叙事完整，没有任何出逃的理由。结果，却落得如此下场。

7 月 21 日，就在几个小时之内，$DEXE 从 $46 附近一路崩到 $5 出头，单日跌幅接近 88%，超过 5 亿美元的成交额在极短时间内涌现，订单簿被直接砸穿。无论是高位持仓的、中途补仓的，还是在下跌途中试图抄底的，几乎无一幸免。

他的几笔单子，合计亏损超过 170 万美金。这是他的部分实盘截图：一笔全仓 3 倍做多，开仓价 $11.84，标记价格跌到 $2.89，单笔亏损 $659,511，回报率 -226.72%；现货账户成本价 $21.05，浮亏 $604,523；另一笔成本价 $36.69 的现货，浮亏 $434,158，跌幅超过 91%。

一周了，没有任何的回应和说法。

二、DWF 今年又干了什么

作为著名的加密货币做市商，DWF 过去都做过哪些事，大家心里清楚，我不需要在这里科普。
但我要说的是，仅仅在今年，他们就已经操控了 SIREN 和 ESPORTS 等代币，让这些代币跌掉了 90% 以上，又是一大波人因此受伤，在市场上亏损了巨额资金。
ESPORTS（2026 年 5 月）：代币在几小时内闪崩 93%，市值蒸发超 1.1 亿美元。崩盘前五天，约 1990 万枚 ESPORTS 被存入与 DWF 相关的 Kraken 地址。项目方随后发声明，直接指责做市商合作伙伴未经授权抛售代币。

SIREN（2026 年 6 月）：BNB 链上 AI Meme 代币 SIREN 暴跌 96%。链上侦探 ZachXBT 指出，该代币单方控盘比例高达 88.5%，控制钱包被指向 DWF Labs。代币在暴涨 6800% 后，随着主要持有者抛售，经历了两次超过 90% 的暴跌。

再往前看——YGG、CRV、JASMY，每一次都有他们的影子，每一次都有散户血本无归，每一次都没有任何人为此付出代价。

在这样的市场里，普通人不停地在维权，而 DWF 却赚得盆满钵满。没有任何监管能管到他们，他们甚至还用这种绕过监管的方式直接砸盘——这非常、非常不合理。

三、他们这次是怎么做到的

这次砸盘，DWF 用了一套更隐秘的方法，越过了链上的所有监控。

有三个需要理解的名字：Falcon Finance、Ceffu、MirrorX。

Falcon Finance 是 DWF Labs 的亲儿子，由 DWF 直接支持。DEXE是Falcon官方支持的抵押资产，机构可以把DEXE 质押进Falcon 换取流动性，而 Falcon 的资产托管机构包含 Ceffu。

Ceffu 是币安的机构托管合作方，它的 MirrorX 功能允许机构把资产存放在 Ceffu 托管，同时在币安交易所生成 1:1 的镜像仓位，可以直接用于现货、保证金和衍生品交易。资产不需要先链上转入交易所，交易先发生，链上结算在事后自动完成（通常 T+1）。

完整路径是这样的：

ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6 质押进 Falcon → Falcon 通过 Ceffu 托管 → Ceffu MirrorX 在币安内部生成镜像仓位 → 镜像仓位完成大规模抛售 → 链上转账在暴跌结束后才出现

根据链上数据，Ceffu 地址累计向 Binance Deposit 转入 797,917.24 枚 ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6，共 6 笔，最大的一笔发生在价格已经完成主要跌幅之后。

按高位价格估算，这 79.8 万枚 ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6 的实际价值高达 3944 万美元。

砸盘在前，链上结算在后。 Whale Alert 根本没响，因为真正的卖压从来就没有出现在链上。这套机制，把所有散户的预警工具全部架空了。他们太清楚怎么利用资金优势、时间差和机制漏洞来收割市场了。而这一次在 ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6上，他们甚至连链上转账的预警时间都不留给散户了。

四、被砸穿的下一个可能就是你手里的币

ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6 之所以被发现，是因为它的崩盘幅度足够极端，才有人把 Ceffu 的转账记录、Falcon 的抵押关系一条条串联起来。

但如果崩盘幅度没那么大呢？如果只是"正常回调"20%、30%，没有人去深挖，最终被归因为"市场情绪变化"，这件事就永远不会浮出水面。

现在，通过 Ceffu 托管映射机制接入币安的代币，远不止
ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6一种。根据调研，Ceffu 目前支持超过 70 种代币的 MirrorX 镜像服务，而 DWF 旗下 Falcon Finance 更是接受广泛的资产作为抵押。

最近上涨的这些代币，都在 Ceffu 的托管体系里：COTI、COTI、COTI、GIGGLE、AKE、AKE、AKE、EPIC、BOME、BOME、BOME、PUMP、LUMIA、LUMIA、LUMIA、ADA、WIN、WIN、WIN、CORE、SSV、SSV、SSV、ZIL。

下一个跌掉 90% 的，说不定就是这几个。

这里面有多少是 DWF 曾经参与过做市、或者有关联且质押过的项目？越是这样的代币，筹码越集中，做市商仓位越重，这套机制的杀伤力就越大。链上工具保护不了散户，因为真正的卖压从来就没出现在链上——等散户看到结算记录的时候，一切都已经结束了。

五、回看 2025 年 10 月 11 日那一次

去年 10 月 11 日，那一波行情大家还记得吗？

很多代币在极短时间内出现了剧烈砸盘，链上没有任何明显预警，事后被普遍归因为"市场情绪波动"和"获利了结"。

但现在，带着对 Ceffu MirrorX 机制的理解，我想请大家重新审视那次行情：那些在 10 月 11 日出现异常暴跌的代币，有没有人认真查过它们的 Ceffu 地址在那几天的链上记录？有没有类似的"砸盘在前、结算在后"的时间差？

如果这套机制在 ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6上有效，它在其他代币上就同样有效。那些被归因为"市场情绪"的暴跌，有多少其实另有隐情？有多少散户的损失，其实是被这套看不见的机制收割的？

这个问题，值得每一个人认真追问。

六、谁能来做监管

币安是全球交易量最大、用户最多的加密交易所。正因为此，币安内部的生态也最为复杂——各种机构、做市商、项目方在这里交织。水很深，很混。币安自己也知道这一点，所以这些年一直在合规建设、打击恶意做市、保护用户资产上下了很大功夫。这些我们都看在眼里。

但正因币安足够大，才更需要有人能真正管到位。币安上的散户少则几千万，多则上亿，如果有做市商在利用币安自己的工具绕过监管收割用户，币安是唯一有能力、也最应该站出来把这件事查清楚的那个人。

我们写这篇文章，不是要指责币安，也不是要制造什么舆论。我们只是希望，币安作为整个市场最重要的监管方，能够看到这个被 DWF 们利用的漏洞，重视它，并且把它封上。
如果币安能够公开说明 Ceffu MirrorX 机制的监管规则，调查相关事件期间的异常交易行为，对受损用户给出一个正式的回应，并修补这个漏洞防止同类事情再次发生——这才是币安一直希望建设的那个公平、透明的市场应有的样子。

我们在等币安的回应。我相信还有很多受害者也在等。
希望作恶者能够得到惩罚。 @cz_binance @binance @heyibinance @binancezh @sisibinance

以上内容基于公开链上数据、价格记录及相关方公开资料整理。关于具体操作方与主观意图的部分属于基于证据链的推断，并非已定罪的法律结论。欢迎任何相关方公开回应和澄清。

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@_TAOLIMAO @pengchujin BTCUSD在腾讯自选股里面搜不到，请问怎么设置？？😅😅😅

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@JensenHuang @nvidia 欢迎来到X!

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@Miles082510 didi

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@chaofandie @sun_xinjin @SleepNotPayTax pane

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@sama 癌症和糖尿病

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@z0r0zzz 0x9030626362f8848e5567cdf116992beeeaac3bee

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

“Net, we see
$ARM
as the biggest beneficiary on server CPU side, followed by
$AMD
and then
$INTC
– but all should see big tailwinds.”

[Knockouttrader @knockouttrader]

Timothy Arcuri at UBS: We’re seeing a clear shift! Agentic AI is bringing CPUs back to the center of the story.

From UBS´ expert calls, Arcuri believes server CPU TAM can grow about 5x to roughly $ 170B by 2030, driven by higher CPU usage in AI workloads and new demand from standalone CPU racks.

From a competitive standpoint, he sees all architectures benefiting, but not equally. In his view, ARM is best positioned given its efficiency and ability to scale, with potential to reach around 40 to 45 percent unit share by 2030.

He is raising his price target on $ARM to $245 from $175, reflecting stronger earnings growth and a more compelling long term outlook.

He also expects $AMD and $INTC to see meaningful upside from this trend, supported by both server demand and an AI driven PC refresh cycle.

Bottom line: AI compute is expanding, and CPUs are becoming a much bigger part of the story than many expected.

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@misaENFP 😅😅😅

[Sisyphus @0xSisyphus]

The entire bubble in photonics is due to a bunch of stock promoters being followed by guys with a bit of cash who don't know much about stocks. There are companies building semi components making zero money that GPT thinks are "bottlenecks" which have repriced 100x in a year

[Nikita Bier @nikitabier]

Crypto has had a rough year. Maybe we should launch something to fix it.

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@justinsuntron 孙割都被割了😅😅😅

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@wuyou818 @binancezh @star_okx @cz_binance CZ经典技能装疯卖傻 指鹿为马

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@octopusycc 嘀嘀嘀 大老师

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@gauntlet_xyz Quick positive update: I just successfully withdrew my $100k USDC from the Gauntlet USDC Core vault! 👍

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

Currently, available liquidity in the Gauntlet USDC Core vault is <0.01 USDC, and I am unable to withdraw. Following the Resolv exploit, the wstUSR/USDC market is stuck. I understand you are monitoring the liquidity, but I kindly hope you can provide a rebalance timeline and recovery plan as soon as possible. Please prioritize this, thank you! @gauntlet_xyz

@mattdobel

@ChiangRei

@RiskRinger

@CarsonMBrown

@DemoSkalkotos

@tarunchitra

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

总结的特别好，读下来颇有收获

[Mable 煤宝宝没饱饱 @mablemeibao]

https://t.co/QzGRSF44FP

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

@AltstreetBet 6 看笑了

[Nashiyu 那时雨 @nashiyueth]

石油不错的观点

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Everyone talks about Iranian oil in barrels. Nobody talks about what is inside them. That difference is why Western refineries have been running shadow networks through Dubai for twenty years to get it despite the sanctions.

Crude oil is not a uniform commodity. It is a spectrum of hydrocarbons with different molecular weights, and the composition of a given crude determines how easily it converts into the products refineries actually want to sell: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil. The measurement that captures this is API gravity. Higher API gravity means lighter crude with shorter carbon chains, which means lower energy cost to crack, lower processing cost to refine, and higher yield of the light distillates that carry premium pricing. Lower API gravity means heavier crude requiring more energy, more processing steps, more capital equipment, and producing a higher share of lower-value residuals.

Iranian Light crude runs at 33 to 36 degrees API gravity with sulfur content between 1.36 and 1.5 percent. That is the refinery sweet spot. It is light enough to yield high fractions of gasoline and middle distillates without excessive processing costs, but heavy enough to produce the full range of products that complex refineries are designed to process. It is what petroleum engineers call an optimal blend crude.

Now compare the alternatives.

Venezuelan Merey heavy crude runs at approximately 16 degrees API gravity with sulfur between 3 and 5 percent. Refining it profitably requires a coking unit, a hydrocracker, and an extensive desulfurization train. The equipment exists. The economics work for refineries purpose-built around Venezuelan feedstock. It is not a substitute for Iranian crude. It is a different product requiring different industrial infrastructure.

US West Texas Intermediate runs at 39 to 40 degrees API with sulfur below 0.25 percent. In theory, the cleanest and easiest crude to process. In practice, it is so light that it does not yield the heavier middle distillates a complex refinery needs to run at full capacity. European and Asian refineries built around medium crudes cannot switch to WTI without blending it with heavier crudes to achieve the molecular weight distribution their process units require. WTI is not a drop-in replacement for Iranian medium.

Iranian oil fits where both US shale and Venezuelan heavy do not. It is the liquid that flows through the middle of the global refining system without requiring either the coking infrastructure for heavy crudes or the blending operations for ultra-light shale. That molecular fit is why it commands a persistent premium above comparable grades. It is why Indian refineries maintained Iranian crude purchases through every round of sanctions and negotiated the logistics to keep that flow moving. It is why the Dubai shadow banking and trading network that the UAE is now considering dismantling existed in the first place.

The Strait of Hormuz does not just carry oil. It carries the specific category of oil that the global refining system was built to process most efficiently. Closing it does not just reduce supply. It removes the grade of crude that the system runs best on and forces every refinery in the world to run less efficiently on whatever it can find as a substitute.

That is the premium embedded in the $82 oil price. Not just volume. Molecular weight.

https://t.co/ULBgEzZ3A8

[Culper @CulperResearch]

NEW: We are short Ether $ETH, and ETH-linked securities, incl. $BMNR.
We think ETH tokenomics are impaired following the December 2025 Fusaka upgrade. Vitalik knows it and is selling, while $ETH's most ardent bull, Tom Lee, is throwing good money after bad.
$ETH is going lower.