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I studied 25 founders who built $5B+ companies between ages 24-29. Robinhood. Shopify. Airbnb. Twitter. DoorDash. Notion. Etsy. None of them had clean resumes. Most would've been rejected in a traditional interview. Three things show up again and again.
Trauma - an emotional relationship to a problem that can't be faked.
Neurodivergence - a brain that can't sit inside conventional structures.
Polymathic range - a weird combination of skills that shouldn't work together but does.
The kid who faked an MIT ID to get into NYU built Etsy. The German with no degree and a learning disability built Shopify. The boy from Xinjiang who learned English from SpongeBob built Notion.
@SamofAmerica Use open source models that approximate the output / quality of frontier models? Hyperscaler margins are still absorbable into the overall margin structure if the value of the service offered is good enough. At a large enough level of scale, can build your own data centres
The OpenClaw discourse reminds me of the 2014 AWS migration wave. Remember the freakout about cloud "bill shock"? The difference: AI tools have -ve marginal cost of cognition. Cost discipline matters (grt thread by @KSimback). But the real arbitrage is in compounding contect
@jimmyinvest@Biohazard3737 We absolutely need to see evidence of product velocity increasing, and R&D as a % of revenues sustainably decreasing as these cos
AI Bubble Fears Are Creating New Derivatives
Debt investors are worried that the biggest tech companies will keep borrowing until it hurts in the battle to develop the most powerful artificial intelligence.
That fear is breathing new life into the market for credit derivatives, where banks, investors and others can protect themselves against borrowers larding on too much debt and becoming less able to pay their obligations. Credit derivatives tied to single companies didn’t exist on many high-grade Big Tech issuers a year ago, and are now some of the most actively traded US contracts in the market outside of the financial sector, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp
With artificial intelligence investments expected to cost more than $3 trillion, much of which will be funded with debt, hedging demand can only grow, according to investors. Some of the richest tech companies in the world are rapidly turning into some of the most indebted. (Bloomberg)
@dampedspring It's more about the reassessment of terminal value. Banking went through the same thing with Fintech in the past - https://t.co/Krj4LNZK4S
The SaaS industry is experiencing a familiar pattern: terminal value compression driven by existential uncertainty. Between 2014 and 2025, banking went through an almost identical cycle with fintech and actually came out stronger: https://t.co/95gL5aLOYD
AWS took 9 years to prove profitability, but patient capital was rewarded with a $100B+ profit engine. Will today's AI infrastructure spend follow the same path? Critical lessons for CFOs and investors. https://t.co/NJDZnI0W0a