Nicholas Dronen

Working stiff at United Metropolitan Improved Hot Muffin and Crumpet Baking and Punctual Delivery Company.

Jean Kayak roadie with all the requisite insurance.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

While Freeing Wheels is the hit single of the album, most of the compositions demonstrate the band's maturity, mastery of song, and distinct vision.

[A man A plan A canal @amanaplanmusic]

.@humpdaynews says Souled American "delivers a kind of transcendent, salvation-ready mood" on their song "Freeing Wheels," from new LP #Sanctions. At radio now from @jealousbutcher, and on the road through the end of June.

https://t.co/fAP3iiUdEd

https://t.co/4wsnqSvJRl

[NWS Boulder @NWSBoulder]

Hot temperatures will continue Sunday and through the week, with afternoon highs in the 90s across the low elevations. Remember to stay hydrated and limit strenuous outdoor activities! #COwx

[Viktor Shvets @ViktorShvets]

Russia: How to destroy soft power

In my first book “The Great Rupture” (https://t.co/lxFHnsSXdP) published in 2020, I described Russia as follows: “Danger to its neighbors as an unsatisfied and sullen but ultimately unsuccessful and deformed giant, eventually morphing into a modern-day equivalent of Mongol warriors in the service of the Chinese emperors.” Historically, Russia never had friends with its neighbors being either vassals or enemies. Finland did manage to walk the middle line, but this was only possible because the USSR knew that repercussions will be far beyond any benefits

In my second book, published in 2024, “The Twilight Before the Storm”(https://t.co/i1Ducs5VKc), I argued that the perception of what constitutes “Russian World” do not line up with borders of the Russian Federation. While this is a common ailment of formerly great colonial empires, it has taken a more toxic turn in a centralized Russian state, especially toward what Russians regard as “brotherly” nations of Belarus and Ukraine but also Caucuses and parts of Central Asia. Ukraine being the largest and the strongest of these neighboring lands, has fought for more than five centuries to have its own space. Ukraine’s distinct culture, language and history, made the conflict inevitable. As I described: “What Russia wants, Ukraine cannot willingly accept, and what Ukraine wants, Russia can never willingly concede to”. Whenever Russia discusses “mutual security”, it invariably means subordination within Russian Empire

And yet, it did not have to be this way

When I lived in the Soviet Union in the 1960s-70s, there was considerable goodwill and respect for Russia. Apart from the Baltics, everyone spoke Russian and while names and accents were different (e. g. my surname and accent were dead giveaways that I hailed from Ukraine), there was a very strong cultural gravitational pull. It is likely the same was true of 1980s and 1990s. Although neither Russia nor most Soviet republics (apart from the Baltics) were good candidates for the EU, there was a window of opportunity (as late as 2008) to create an integrated market of independent states, with strong links to the EU and China. But, this would have required Russia to accept hard power limitations and allow its soft power to bridge local frictions

Alas, by now it is far too late. Attacks on Georgia and the invasion of Ukraine destroyed any chance, leaving Russia as a dependency of China. If Georgia and Armenia want greater independence, the case is truly lost. But, despite sufferings, it is good news for Ukraine. While facing many challenges, Ukrainians have protected their independence and they will join the EU. Reconstruction and tapping into Ukrainian resources as well as high quality human capital will transform the EU itself.

Today, the US is also recklessly destroying its own soft power, but there is a good chance that “American Fever” will break. There is no such hope for Russia, at least not for generations to come.

[Olena Tregub @OTregub]

Apocalyptic bird nest.

A Russian glide bomb knocks down a tree in Donbas. From the shattered branches rolls out a tiny bird’s nest.

Made of drone fiber-optic cable.

Source: Oleg Malchenko

[Machine Learning Street Talk @MLStreetTalk]

This is what (pre-IPO) peak bullshit looks like.

I'm really pro-AI and I'm very excited about future developments, but the catnip is clouding our judgement.

Anthropic also say we should "pause" because we will "lose control" of a technology that has arguably less autonomy (now, in practice) than hand-written Python code. We are not "doing more with less" with current AI (if you take errors, legibility, time, cost and tail risk into consideration). Fundamentally new research is required, we are not even close.

There is weak evidence (so far) for broad economy-wide displacement or a general AI-driven "unemployment shock". There is some (possibly transient) suppression of junior hires and contractors (for highly automatable jobs).

They are now convincing Trump that nationalisation is a "good idea" for regular folks about to be "displaced" by AI.

> “It almost becomes a partnership with the American public,” he said. Trump added that “the American people can benefit from the success of AI, and by that, they’re going to like it better.” [WSJ]

George Carlin did say that "bullshit was the soundtrack of America". Imagine what he would have to say about all this if he were still alive.

This might actually be the most sophisticated, multi-layered bullshit in human history.

Book volumes, Netflix shows and management modules will be written about the 2020s frothy AI psychosis pandemic.

And what makes it all the more annoying is when you strip away the bullshit and see it for what it is: current AI genuinely is innovative and useful, but its harms can only be mitigated with high levels of AI literacy.

I'm hopeful that strong engineers will figure this out collectively, but I estimate it takes, on average, 18 months to 2 years of daily experience with vibe coding to properly grok it. We might not have that long.

PS. Look at the leaked Claude Code source

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

xAI leased a lot of their capacity because their software stack was getting them 10% GPU utilization. Half of the xAI GPUs are leased to Anthropic and Google now, who can make better use of the hardware. For Google, the lease has nothing to do with atoms, or lack of skill with build outs. It's just convenient.

The real question is whether Musk will be able to persistently cut to the front of the NVIDIA sales queue with his large purchases. That could be leverage in the data center capacity market.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

https://t.co/n7JrzycRzR

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

Juicing the IPO with contracts, I see.

https://t.co/JNKmG2Luik

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@mitchellbyars Summit is good, particularly the Pombazo.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@RousseauFTW @yoavgo By the tweet, but it's nice when a paper is accepted.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

Debt service ratio is still below pre-COVID levels.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@yoavgo @tdietterich More importantly, I would argue, is the question, "Will I be able to talk for three hours during a poster session in Paris and meet new people?"

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

https://t.co/mDYzvSOK4z

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@yoavgo Basics: you absolutely must know the types of incremental learning.

https://t.co/xk19Y9HMgg

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@MikeBurgersburg Musk up in GS CEO's DMs like fr bro

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

The long game.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

👇

[kasra @kasratweets]

this is an interesting point in the new ted chiang piece – no one really claims that alphafold is conscious, or that sora or midjourney or dall-e are conscious

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@maverick_oi @gbrew24 That's true now, too. I believe what Greg is saying is that what people are imagining now to be true is in fact false.

[Nicholas Dronen @ndronen]

@jkbjournalist @Phillies That looks fun!