Tom Bayley

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@burntbulb @KelseyTuoc "Everything will all work out in the end" is an enlightened position. It's the foundation of confidence and perseverance that public-spirited folk tend to share. It's not religious per se but it may have the accoutrements. Personal existential fear is the training ground.

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@TheLastNeocon @ChrisWGuthrie @KelseyTuoc Quantum physics has shown you can't treat counter factuals ("what you haven't observed") that way. They are neither true nor false.

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@VukasinPekovic @Silver__Santa "This is a bulk disseminated system, not a narrow-vein system."

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

Absolutely my experience too. You have to be articulate though, and you clearly are, so the problem may be that many devs cannot express themselves adequately? But to them I'd say AI is a good way to exercise and improve that kind of skill. You have to engage with it and keep it under control - and that can be exhausting sometimes!

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@spagsaurus @HeadedNine @theBuoyantMan @HFI_Research @KobeissiLetter @Rory_Johnston He wrote this in March:

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@HeadedNine @HFI_Research @KobeissiLetter @Rory_Johnston A bit self-absorbed? And a couple of months ago (or more) he wrote this:

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

Why should Iran care too much if the Gulf states build alternative export infrastructure? (Which BTW would involve much more than oil, stuff that can't go through a pipeline.) Iran only needs a weapon to deter US/Israeli attacks, and they have shown that blowing up neighbouring infrastructure is the real pain point for their aggressors.

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@AndrewM_Fischer @Brad_Setser Apparently they may not be quarterly numbers that need to be annualised. Could be end of 4Q balances. Why would anyone plot annual single Q figures ? https://t.co/riPJuFpWF8

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@techn0eacc @venturetwins Another Anthropic fan boi. Fair play to Anthropic, their PR is top flight.

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@otemple79 An actuary would assess age and health to determine how much those 5% annual payments are worth today. That amount is then outside of IHT forever. The remainder is gifted under trust (can be bare or discretionary.) https://t.co/xR9kkIV2gU

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@otemple79 Discounted Gift Trusts take capital out of your estate immediately as a lump sump which is then returned in smaller amounts annually, typically 5% pa. The amount of the 'discount' implied is treated as a gift. https://t.co/XKqmwHCbxS

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@phild915 @AscendedYield @ikeijeh https://t.co/aQ9TXO4Tsh

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@LiQuidPr0Qu0 @LukeGromen Rates not going down I should have said - going up too much could be a problem!

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

Rates going up would be positive for the US economy. Regarding Japan, the public sector has very large overseas investments so net debt is actually moderate. Nobody ever tells you that. Also japanese people like to save simply as cash (inflation has been low remember) meaning their banks take in huge deposits which need to be balanced by JGBs

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@LiQuidPr0Qu0 @LukeGromen Not heard @LukeGromen calling for a collapse in equities, but definitely steering away from bonds. He's invested in grid/infrastructure which have done well. Gold/BTC is a long term call.

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@alpix17 @Object_Zero_ @HYeahBrother Possibly more to do with solar levels and weather than iranian missiles?

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@BurggrabenH @LinaSeiche You fool.

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@grok @TheTradeTailor @gentrydc @RaoulGMI Maybe the US was fine but I remember some pretty tense moments in Europe with 10x on energy prices. So this time is different?

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@BryGuyShy @LukeGromen @alon_perlmuter https://t.co/jgXf6hR3JN

[Tom Bayley @notanobject]

@TheMichaelEvery Michael, from someone so focused on unearthing realpolitik and hidden quid pro quos, that question seems extremely naive.