Key takeaways from the Finnish National Defence University’s 2026 report on Russia’s military:
Bottom line: Russia is adapting to a prolonged war of attrition. Territorial gains alone are an inadequate measure of its military effectiveness.
‼️King’s College London War Studies PhD Alexander Grable just published a paper that directly challenges the core Western claim about the Ukraine war: that Russia is taking multiples of Ukrainian casualties and is being steadily attrited.
The article appears in the official 2026 Russia Seminar proceedings of the Finnish National Defence University.
Using open-source data only, Grable argues the opposite is true - Ukrainian irretrievable losses are substantially higher, both absolutely and relatively.
The most striking indicators:
➡️ Ukrainian Ministry of Health / National Institute of Strategic Studies amputee figures, even when deliberately adjusted downward to match the best U.S. medical performance in the War on Terror, imply 400,000–520,000 Ukrainian KIA by late 2024.
➡️ Parallel Russian military-hospital data (obtained via a defector) shows far fewer amputees relative to admissions.
➡️ Body exchanges across the war average roughly 12.5 Ukrainian dead returned for every 1 Russian.
➡️ Open-source Russian death tallies (Mediazona and similar) show serious inflation when cross-checked against obituaries and probate records. A 2025 prisoner cohort of ~4,000 produced only ~112 corroborated deaths by late summer — incompatible with claims of 30–50k Russian dead per month.
Grable’s conclusion: Russian KIA/MIA are very probably lower than most Western estimates, Ukrainian losses are very probably higher, and Ukraine is on the wrong side of the attritional gradient. Russia has used superior firepower, training, and its reconnaissance-strike complex to impose highly unfavorable ratios.
Full paper (free PDF): https://t.co/iBcAyxmkm8
This is not a fringe blog or a politicised claim. It is a published contribution to a major military university’s research series.
• Structural weaknesses: 70–90% of defense industry machine tools are imported;
• Battlefield strategy: Rather than prioritizing rapid territorial gains, Russia increasingly relies on remote strikes to degrade Ukrainian forces, logistics and reserves before advancing.
@RSA_Observer@ThomMohr These people live in a fantasy world where brave Ukranian female elves fight with Russian orc hordes, suffering massive losses. It is like talking to mentally ill people who lost any contact with reality and only listen to zelyanski/kallas voices in their head.
En 2016 le Times parlait des prisons secrètes où était pratiqué la torture en Ukraine, dévoilée par l’ONU.
Mais il faut continuer à envoyer les milliards à Zelensky, c’est pour nos valeurs.
A medic who revealed the existence of a secret prison in Petropavlovskaya Borshchagovka is being threatened with death, including by commanders of NGU and AFU units
He’s saying that he found Ukrainian people in trouble and just wanted to help them but he is now already being threatened by Ukrainian national guard and some AFU units (most likely Nazi) ..they will probably kill him .
The SAS in Basra were planting car bombs in Shia and Sunni areas to inflame sectarian tensions. They were caught red-handed dressed as Arabs, with a car full of explosives and detonators, then killed an Iraqi policeman at a checkpoint whilst trying to escape
🇷🇺 Una famiglia numerosa ha lasciato Oleshky durante la tregua, per trasferirsi in un luogo sicuro in Russia. Attualmente, si stanno dirigendo verso Skadovsk, nella regione di Kherson, ha riferito il difensore civile russo Yana Lantratova al corrispondente Murad Gazdiev (video)