Bitcoin as Validation of the Regression Theorem: An Austrian Synthesis with Szabo and Ammous
Author: J. P. Mayall
Abstract
At the intersection of Austrian economics and digital innovation, Bitcoin exemplifies a new form of money that validates classical theories of monetary
Anarcho-capitalism is a wonderfully abstract ideal that can inspire innovation. It helped inspire me to help invent cryptocurrency.
But real-world cryptocurrencies are not trustless -- they are trust-minimized. Each cryptocurrency has a legal attack surface, representing the kinds of ways governments and/or private entities can practically use law to disrupt their operations. The layer 1 of a good trust-minimized cryptocurrency like Bitcoin can withstand much more interference than centralized technologies could or can, but the technology still has its limits.
The kinds of attacks that come from financial law have largely proven to be manageable, due to a combination of the trust-minimized (not trustless) technology, which requires diligent attention from developers motivated to keep it a trust-minimized form of money, and a large army of cryptocurrency industry lawyers who specialize in financial law.
The legal attack surface from arbitrary data is far larger and far less predictable. The crypto industry does not have the legal expertise to deal with it.
Thinking that Bitcoin, or any other cryptocurrency or blockchain protocol, is a magical anarcho-capitalist Swiss army knife that can withstand any kind of governmental attack in any legal area is insanity.
Keynesianos fizeram um estudo e concluíram que 2+2 dá 4. O mundo está muito doido mesmo, pra todo keyneisano da 5 pois tem o multiplicador keynesiano implícito na curva da soma.
SF Fed study examines 150 years of U.S. tariffs and find that they lead to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand (which raises unemployment) https://t.co/d7d9WmIHHJ
Pelo sentimento do CT achei que o @PedroCeriz já tinha virado faz tempo.
Nem entendo como estou 86% do tempo na liderança com Bitcoin que cai tanto e iBovespa só sobe.
Lembro de ter visto uma modelagem que o Cerize tinha 14.5-29% de chances de ganhar.
Será que ele vira?
In the last 2 years, the second largest Bitcoin peak in losses: 5.1M today. It only loses to 5.4M in September 2024 - which was the bottom at $54K.
At the time, 1 in every 3 circulating BTC (excluding lost ones) was in the red, 33% of the supply. Today, 31.5% of the supply is
The mistake starts with labeling it a "Trade War" - what Trump is doing is essentially a currency war. Other countries have very few options to mitigate the impacts.
Gold, for example, is an indirect exposure to U.S. Treasuries.
TRUMP ANNOUNCES $2,000 TARIFF DIVIDEND FOR AMERICANS
President Donald Trump announced a $2,000 payment to most Americans, funded by U.S. tariff revenues. In a Truth Social post, he said the U.S. is collecting “trillions of dollars” in tariffs and will use the money to reduce national debt and reward citizens—excluding high-income earners. Trump called tariff critics “fools” and claimed the U.S. is now the “richest, most respected country in the world,” citing record stock markets and 401(k) values.
MVRV-Z = (Market Value - Realized Value) / Price Volatility.
Deep negative = price far below what holders paid on average. This metric has nailed every major market bottom in Bitcoin’s history.
When price trades this far below realized value, it’s usually fuel for the next le
JPMorgan predicting bitcoin at $170k in next 6-12mo, says perp deleveraging is behind us and that's it undervalued vs gold historically, which implies "significant upside next 6-12mo"