eric_h_speron

No comment qualifies as investment advice/endorsement. Holdings are filed in our 13F. Do your own research.

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

My first live interview hopefully comes across okay. It is definitely a treat to have Andrew study up on the business before we start recording so I tried to pick one close to his heart but one I hope his audience still appreciates….

[Yet Another Value Empire @YetAnotherValue]

Podcast #279 is up!

@off_the_run discusses what he thinks the market is missing at $MBB.FP and why a looming $VIV.FP spin could catalyze the stock.

https://t.co/THiQzY89ja

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Murray Stahl is without a doubt an intellectual north star to many of us, thank you for your leadership Murray.

https://t.co/sVGSaKDGU3

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@ohcapideas @FoxCastlehold @SpecSitsCapMgmt @SawbillCap @abroninvestor I am sure the market won’t be ready to extrapolate they could do this amount 9 more times with cash, businesses or securities.

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@DarkfireCapital Hopefully UConn

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@CapitalObserver @marginofdanger @WhiteHouse @MichaelDell Seems like the 2 key advantages are that it doesn’t require earned income and that there are already 3 dozen large companies who have agreed to chip in. https://t.co/1NoM2Abfxv

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@marginofdanger @WhiteHouse @MichaelDell There are many companies that agreed to contribute to these accounts/match besides the Feds (req birth ‘25-28). Unlike an IRA, it doesn’t require your child has income. My thought - contribute & have it grow tax free. In their young 20s, Roth it and use later as a down payment.

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Merger failure fears fading today. I estimated synergies would be 250m of ebita, today Canal told the market its goal is 400m. For context SocGen was so unclear it wasn’t modeling synergies(not common for Wall St.) its ebita midpoint 1,178. What did the market miss, this map…

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Canal+ up to 2.3x ebitda per today’s DB report but FCF guide is 500m vs. 300m in April. A 20% FCF yield understates it if Multichoice merger doesn’t fail - also means they’re strategic to NFLX in 30 more countries https://t.co/DzFvoyz0Jz. Remember mgmt comp target pre-split >£5

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Interesting 2 days in Odet. The first time in many quarters we didn't get a weekly corporate buyback (was ~400 shares/week); Vincent Bollore we found out has acquired 600 additional shares on 12/22 at1332 and as my friend @FoxCastlehold points to me Odet cancelled 18,000 shares.

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

When I’ve posted interviews it’s b/c I’ve agreed with a courageous speaker. Einstein said "If I were to remain silent, I’d be guilty of complicity." Without Charlie Munger, we lack this voice in investment, maybe it can be @michaeljburry great talk here:https://t.co/hZ7diHXHCf

[Ronbo @Ron284Ron]

$TRC Shareholder letter from Pres. & CEO 8 months into his tenure. Quite elaborate. Probably a must read. Be nice if others did the same. Will read over the weekend. https://t.co/s63PXmOje0

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

VB takes in $200m Odet: https://t.co/DqnuGFPtLv…
@FoxCastlehold

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Multichoice disclosed to the South African regulator that Canal owns 77%. Remember there is no squeeze out unless Canal clears 90%. I’ve only seen one Wall St estimate, they had pro forma debt >1.5x. Less cash will be going out the door today, but minority interest is higher.

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

With the core circle completed, focus turns to Viu - entirely on C+’s racket for control ‘26. The graphic misses the biggest opportunity - Sky https://t.co/6h9sO4VJRi .Versant’s Form 10 is done, C+ has MCG - a few quarters from now, talk should start on C+\Sky merger. @anael_tw

[philippe bailly 🇺🇦🍀 @pbailly]

👉@canalplus + #Multichoice = 41,4 millions d'abonnés
👉+#Viu (Canal+ à 36,8%, et une option pour monter à 51%) = 56,9 millions
👉+#Viaplay, dont Canal+ est le 1er actionnaire (à quasi-parité avec PPF) = 61,7 millions

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

In the 13F, you can see that we made a large buy of Canal+ coming out of the VIV spin. I help at the Ben Graham investment program at UCLA and did an interview where they decided to feature the rationale. If you have any interest, you can find it here: https://t.co/lX860z3T14

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Marriott acquires IWG. Dynamic office is asset lite and growing considerably but there are no brands after WeWork’s fall. IWG has more units than their next 10 competitors combined. Dynamic office is going into hotels, gyms & airports but will stay slow unless it’s branded.

[PAA Research @ActAccordingly]

It's one of the slowest Friday's of the year. Let's try something fun. I think we're about to see a DELUGE of M&A after this weekend. What's the craziest M&A idea you have that actually makes a ton of sense after further reflection?

I'll start. $GOOG should acquire $GNRC.

What's your favorite crazy but sensible M&A idea?

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@abroninvestor @LuchesiPhilippe — Merci Philippe, j'ai toujours hâte de lire votre travail.

[Christopher Bloomstran @ChrisBloomstran]

The CFA Institute is no longer the outstanding organization it was when I joined upon earning my charter 31 years ago. If you are a CFA charterholder and have not yet voted your proxy (deadline this Monday the 21st at noon Eastern) or may consider changing your vote, or are simply interested in an opinion as to how a once-great advocate for financial education, advocacy and ethics is failing a large proportion of its membership, please read on. Please also resend this message.

I’ll get to the important proxy vote and bad governance on display shortly, which I hope all charterholders take the time to vote, but first, many likely saw the CFA Institute’s Chief Marketing Officer “allegedly” embezzled nearly $5 million from the Institute from 2016 to 2024, including $150k for an engagement ring, and another $1 million from another employer. He was indicted on June 23 by the Manhattan DA. Despite immediate media coverage, the institute waited more than two weeks to address the disaster with its membership and on July 8 finally sent an incredibly tone-deaf email update from its President and CEO, Margaret Franklin, CFA, paid $1.4 million compensation by the Institute in 2024. The accused embezzling CMO was earning $500k annually. The message took zero accountability, other than suggesting it would do better.

As an institution that holds itself out as an exemplar of ethics, integrity, and that administers the CFA examination program, which focuses on accounting, financial statement analysis and ethics, among other subject matter, a failure to detect fraud over eight years is beyond a financial-controls black eye. It serves to destroy the CFA brand, already under assault from the way the organization sitting atop the membership and local member societies is managed and governed.

The CFA membership received another email message from President and CEO Franklin three days later on July 11 which encouraged the members to vote their proxies. They need a quorum. Franklin is an infrequent direct communicator. I find only a New-Year’s message over the past two years from her in my inbox. Franklin’s urge to vote notes, “By voting, you and or your colleagues around the world will be electing a chair, vice chair, and governors to serve on the Board, and additional proposals related to Board governance.”

The “additional proposals” the President and CEO FAILS TO DISCUSS are bylaw changes serving to grotesquely strip the membership and local societies of representation. The members and societies are the bedrock of the organization and for whom the President and CEO serves, and this year’s proxy initiatives are a perfect illustration of governance gone haywire. The proposals are an embarrassment to the Institute but more importantly to all 211,000 CFA charterholders globally.

Specifically, proposals 1a, 1c, and 1d shift the election of the Chair and Vice Chair from the membership to the current CFA Institute Board, concentrating power within the Board and diluting the perpetually diminished role that members and societies play in shaping the direction of their global association. The proposals erode membership democracy, weakening transparency and member engagement in governance decisions. I voted AGAINST.

Proposal 1e merges the Nominating and Governance Committees, restricting its composition to only current Governors. This removes multiple non-Governor perspectives, including two from the membership’s elected Presidents Council Representatives, PCRs. It is obscene that the current Board would introduce a proposal to self-select nominees to serve on the Board. Of course a one-sided, like-minded Board will work to perpetuate itself. Stunning. Between the four proposals the Board nominates itself and solely elects its Chair and Vice Chair. I voted AGAINST. 1/3

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@GWInvestors Keep at it Steven….For those who wanted the study reviewed and later in the call placed in context of live examples from Steven’s fund I would recommend this @acquirersx podcast he did with @Greenbackd in mid May: https://t.co/HHU3VYCxWg

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

This is truly a seminal paper by @GWInvestors. The conclusion is shaming of the popular investment theme of the day - cheap beta/access is supreme. Steven demonstrates owners generated 10.9% return over 3 decades vs. the index at 6.3% - getting owners 17x more over 30 years.

[East 72 Dynasty Trust @East72Dynasty]

This is a magnificent piece of academic/econometric work by @GWInvestors which is the very basis of why @East72Dynasty exists. It delves into all the subtleties - less acquisition, passion for customer etc. Worth a read. https://t.co/RthLTNgnSm

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

@OlmesJo Speaking of annual meetings, we are also told that UMG was sold out of Odet for Canal(and some of Yannick’s Havas) as both MS and UBS built large stakes that presumably were being resold to VB.

Hard to also not see it being strategic to Paramount, Sky, F1, FIFA, Olympics, etc

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Canal+ up to 2.3x ebitda per today’s DB report but FCF guide is 500m vs. 300m in April. A 20% FCF yield understates it if Multichoice merger doesn’t fail - also means they’re strategic to NFLX in 30 more countries https://t.co/DzFvoyz0Jz. Remember mgmt comp target pre-split >£5

[eric_h_speron @off_the_run]

Few Canal+ updates. Indo, Malay & Thai led VIU to 15.5m subs - with MCG 62m subs today. US activist crossed 5% threshold. Broker initiations; Socgen has C+ at 4x P/E. DB at 1.4x ebitda shows why board now incents FCF conversion. Insiders buy, CEO makes C+ the only stock he owns