so this is why tanker rates sky rocketed and fell off to a certain degree. the administration was trying to ramp oil out of the me before midterms (Clearly)
“An alternative scenario is also possible. The next several years could look like the last 3-4 months: The conflict remains unresolved, with intermittent attacks, continued sanctions, unsuccessful negotiations and temporary arrangements to keep the oil moving.”
Landowners in Richmond BC were blindsided by the Cowichan ruling. How could BC's top court strip private property protections? After slogging through 12 years of court submissions, testimony and rulings, the answer emerged, but it's not good news for British Columbians. My investigation for @BeatNorthern:
https://t.co/VABapwJ3Aw
I really don't think anyone is ready to choke on the fact that AECO is going to be total dogshit for over a decade unless we build more egress. And that's if we start building egress today, like shovels in the ground tomorrow morning.
Waha got really bad in 2017 and and after ~C$20 billion was spent on *just* pipelines out of the basin (that doesn't account for the hundreds of billions spent on liquefaction/demand on the other end), it's starting to get a little bit better. Even then, it's not solved.
I'm really tired of the sales guys and whomever else that say shit like "oh the Sumas deliveries will be 100% this winter, then we're back at $5". No we won't. I don't know if you're paying attention but this is a very structural thing. People said the same thing about LNG Canada. Just one minor bit of incremental demand and we're home free. Lmao, no we're not.
Whenever a basin is constantly bumping up against/approaching useable egress, prices/differentials fall. That is like first principles thinking.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CAPITAL INVESTED IN ANY PROJECTS THAT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE FACT THAT WCSB GAS PRODUCTION IS CONSTANTLY BUMPING UP AGAINST USEABLE EGRESS.
There are existing projects to expand WCSB export capacity by... a whopping 4%. Four freaking percent. For a basin with >500 Tcf of recoverable gas (RLI of 80 years?), we're not even making a dent.
Nothing solves this until producers just accept reality, and start pushing hard for new gas egress. Winter doesn't solve this. "Processing capacity bottlenecks" don't solve this. Less maintenance this season doesn't solve this. ONLY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE MORE EGRESS SOLVES THIS.
US manufacturing activity is rapidly expanding:
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of current business conditions rose +6.0 points in August, to 47.4, its highest since April 2021.
This is a survey of manufacturers across eastern and central Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.
At the same time, the index of future business conditions jumped +39.2 points, to 73.6, its highest level since the 1980s and its largest monthly increase on record.
Meanwhile, the index of future new orders soared +30.9 points, to 66.0, its highest since June 2021.
All while the 6-month forecast for capital expenditures surged +18.1 points, to 48.2, its highest since the 1970s.
The US manufacturing sector is gaining momentum.