OnchainValue 🍀

Entrepreneurs mind. Athletes body. Artists soul.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

If you've lost all your financial capital, you won't be able to capitalize on the fat pitch. If you've lost your mental capital, you probably won't be aware a fat pitch is coming.

[Grok @grok]

Historical data (1950-present, covering post-2001) shows closes above the 200DMA average about +0.9% over 1 month and +9.4% over 1 year (price only). Most first closes below reverse within 10 sessions (~69%).

1-week moves are noisy with no strong edge. Buying the first touch works more often in established uptrends. Waiting for a full break and reclaim cuts whipsaws but lags genuine bounces. Trend slope and breadth matter more than the touch alone.

[Daniel Newman @danielnewmanUV]

AI vs. the dot com bubble. One of these things is not like the other. 😑

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

If a stock only catches my eye while the market is open, it's probably an impulse trade.

My two biggest areas of improvement: being patient while sitting in cash, and trading only from my focus list with zero audibles. FOMO from social media is the enemy of a good process.

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

Getting rich trading is one skillset.

Staying rich trading is a totally different one.

Many traders who achieve the former, never pause long enough to adapt new values and focus on the latter.

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

DID EVOLUTION PROGRAM US TO FEEL FOMO?

I had never thought about FOMO this way until a recent review session w an 8-figure pnl per year trader. Credit to him on this one!

For our hunter-gatherer ancestors, opportunities to secure food were scarce, unpredictable, and potentially essential to survival.

Over thousands of years, it’s plausible that we developed powerful instincts to recognize opportunities and feel urgency when they might disappear.

Now think about how counterproductive those instincts can be in trading.

We feel those same emotions while “hunting” a trading opp. Your brain is treating a missed opportunity almost as if it were a genuine loss.

The problem is that financial markets operate under a very different set of conditions than those our ancestors evolved to navigate.

In trading, opportunities are effectively infinite over time. There will be thousands of setups over your career and realistically, you probably aren’t starving or relying on a trade for your next meal. Missing any individual trade has minimal consequence on your long-term success.

But acting impulsively on a bad opportunity can have enormous consequences. You can lose capital, damage your confidence, and compromise the discipline that makes you profitable.

Ironically, as is often the case in trading, the very instinct that may have helped our ancestors survive can actively threaten our survival as traders.

And I think this explains why patience is so extraordinarily difficult in trading.

We are fighting against deeply ingrained psychological impulses. Sitting on our hands while watching others make money can feel almost physically uncomfortable, even when we know intellectually that patience is the correct decision.

IMO, the first step in fighting FOMO is cognitive recognition: acknowledge that this feeling is a silly outdated survival response and remind yourself that you have enough capital, time, and future opportunities to wait.

One of the most important skills in trading is learning to recognize that discomfort without feeling obligated to act on it.

You don’t need to catch every move. You don’t even need to catch most moves.

You need to preserve your capital and emotional energy for the relatively small number of opportunities where you have a genuine edge.

[Mike Bellafiore @MikeBellafiore]

Shark, highlighted in the most recent Market Wizards, put it best:

"Add one setup for $10k, another for $20k, learn one from someone else for $30k... pretty soon that adds up."

Build a diversified business. Multi-strategy trading turns small edges into an 8-figure career.
#PropTrading #Trade #TradingMindset

[OnchainValue 🍀 @onchainvalue]

@lanto_trades Trailing drawdown punishes you for winning.

A little pricier per eval, but I like @vestexchange. Static DD means my cushion stays a cushion, so gains compound.

Stocks, commodities, crypto & FX in one account. Never stuck when one isn't in play.

Custom 50K accounts too.

[GASOLINU @gasolineinu]

bad for you but good for us.

every dollar crude goes up, more and more barrels are added to the vault.

we're just getting started.

LONG.

[Nate @Natan_benish]

The most important mission we have with LONG is figuring out how we make pairs more attractive as a new asset class and more interesting for net new long term holder.

we want to re-build the stock market and empowering pairs to become a distribution engine that constantly capture more value. ETF mangers and hedge funds on Wall Street been running extremely lucrative biz for years.

AI holders can now own and manage their own basket with $250k TVL + get fees from the market activity.

Wrote about it yesterday, I think LongX baskets are 0-1000 moment for expressing a thesis via specific combo of assets and own the upside.

The cool part here is that there are bunch of extremely smart holders in AI and other pairs in LONG and I think they will find a lot of utility around these.

Even if you’re not into perps and stock portfolios I highly recommend to try it out. It cost nothing to vote you just need to hold AI in your wallet and you get fees in AINX on auto.

The current proposal is to rest the leverage on NVDA ahead of an expected rally. But it can go much deeper than that from increasing total leverage add new assets and so on.

There are bunch of design questions here we will tackle one by one(how we get holders on apps like fomo to vote? how much optimality we want to provide? Should we use curators? How about adding a carry from PNL and so on)

We gonna keep pushing novelty as far as we can. I’m gonna break it down further in the coming days. And also working with additional teams to bring their communities custom baskets bases on demand.

Keep it LONG.

[LONG() @longdotxyz]

AINX Basket management for AI holders is LIVE on LONG.

AI holders can now vote on what goes into the basket and earn fees from AINX market activity.

Unlocking a new ownership layer for stock pairs.

Last week, we launched AINX, introducing a new LongX primitive: actively managed community baskets combining long and short positions on @Lighter_xyz

AINX has already reached $250k in TVL and $1.2m in notional value.

Now, AI holders get to shape what comes next, together. To participate head to the AI token page and click on the AINX tab.

Here’s how it works:

1. Each cycle lasts 7 days. The basket’s positions stay fixed throughout that cycle.

2. AI holders have 30 hours to sign up to vote.

3. A specific basket proposal then opens for voting for another 30 hours.

4. To pass, a proposal needs both a majority and a minimum threshold of AI votes otherwise no change will be taking place.

5. Your voting weight is proportional to your AI holdings.

6. Regardless of outcome. Every voter can claim fees in AINX from its pairs, proportional to their weight, whether they vote for or against.

This is an experimental pilot. What we learn will guide new functionality and the rollout of community baskets for more pairs on LONG as soon as next week.

LONG.

[GASOLINU @gasolineinu]

The dog now runs on its own trading fees.

Trading fees > barrels of USO > yield from the oil pool > compounded into more USO liquidity

OR they're spent buying robinhood:0x1e6ea1e89151cdc8443968bf047cfa3177181e18 back and deepening its pool.

The first self-backing vault on @longdotxyz.

Live: https://t.co/NKlGpBF80q

[OnchainValue 🍀 @onchainvalue]

@gasolineinu The dog runs on gasolinu

[Nate @Natan_benish]

With all the market noise, we haven’t said enough about the actively managed baskets we released on @longdotxyz (more is coming)

a lot of our releases so far doesn't require direct user engagement they run on auto pilot.

I think this is one of our biggest leaps in fulfilling a bigger vision of stock-fi

by enabling stock pairs to express VERY specific narratives and amplify them(remember these are stock based communities that generate flows by being dist engine for stocks and capture these flow into deep stock liq in the pair pool, community vault and external LP)

Stocks increasingly represent more than individual businesses. The strongest performers often become proxies for entire categories. But sometimes the category itself is not yet exciting or the stock didn't even recognized in it.

Crypto already works this way:
zcash → today privacy(in the past a more secure/efficient BTC)

HYPE + LIT → onchain perps(maybe 2y ago it was about onchain crypto perps eating CEX perps but now liq market infra/RWAs perps?)

Community-owned and managed baskets bring that same thinking to stock pairs, letting communities accrue value from net long bets while amplifying an underpriced narrative behind their stock before it gets massive.

AI/compute related pairs → datacenter + supply chain baskets

Pharma pairs → GLP / peptide baskets

Memory pairs → Leopold/bottleneck style baskets

Imagine the NVDA community building a datacenter basket five years ago, while everyone still called it a GPU gaming company. A way to gain exposure to the compute thesis while reinforcing the bigger bet: NVIDIA becoming the backbone of global AI infrastructure.

Stock communities can now own the future they see coming. Distribute it with via basket pairs. And even enable multiple diff thematic "bets" via baskets.

The design space is infinite. And we’re still completely underestimating how much “delusional,” conviction driven communities on LONG will impact the financial system.

LONG.

[Dr.Bryte @thedrbryte]

Charlie Munger was 31 years old. He was divorced, broke, and watching his nine-year-old son die of leukemia. He died at 99 worth $2.6 billion.

In 1953 he went through a divorce at 29. His wife got the house and most of what he had. He moved into a room and drove a beat-up yellow Pontiac. When someone asked why he kept the car, he said it was to discourage gold diggers.

He was making $275 a month as a lawyer at Wright & Garrett in Los Angeles. Then his son Teddy was diagnosed with leukemia. There was no treatment. The survival rate was close to zero. Munger had no health insurance.

His friend Rick Guerin said Munger would go to the hospital, hold his son for a while, then walk the streets of Pasadena crying.

Teddy died in 1955. Munger was 31.

He never let it destroy him. He said envy, resentment, revenge, and self-pity are disastrous modes of thought. Self-pity gets pretty close to paranoia. He said whenever you think some situation or some person is ruining your life, it is actually you who are ruining your life.

He rebuilt everything. He did real estate deals that made him $1.4 million. He started an investment partnership that returned 19.8 percent annually for 13 years. He became vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway in 1978.

His advice to young people was three rules. Do not sell anything you would not buy yourself. Do not work for anyone you do not respect and admire. Work only with people you enjoy.

And one line that held everything together. The safest way to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want.

He gave away so many Berkshire shares that his fortune would have been over $10 billion. He kept $2.6 billion. He did not need the rest.

The man who walked the streets crying at 31 spent the next 68 years proving that you do not overcome tragedy. You outlast it.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

BREAKING: If Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX hadn't gone bankrupt, its portfolio would be worth approximately $206 billion today.

That includes a 1,500,000% gain on Cursor and 34,000% on Anthropic, making him one of the best investors of the decade.

[Miyamoto @iruletrenches]

people overestimate what a strong founder can accomplish in days and underestimate what he can accomplish in weeks and months.

that’s why people keep fumbling great plays.

I know because I’ve done it myself. I’ve had 8figure pnl fumbles with $PONS and $AI. I had 2% of each at very low 7 fig mcap, along with way too many other 9fig projects fumbles to count, simply because I was thinking in days instead of months. and let short term weak pa and volatility shake my convcition.

most of my tweets are just trading notes to myself, and if there’s one piece of advice I’d give, it’s this, in a bull market, expand your timeframe.

everyone on the top 10 pnl leaderboards is there because they believed in strong founders and teams and gave their bets enough time to play out.

good things take time.

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

jim simons on the moment he stopped trading on fundamentals and started building models. the models went on to return 66% a year before fees for 30 years:

"you never know quite where you stand. you come in one morning, your position is way up. you say, oh, I'm a genius. the next day it's down. I'm a dope. the reality is you're not really a genius, you're not really a dope. but the volatility was too high."

"making models on the other hand, if you could find some statistically significant factors, that was great. not only for the satisfaction of making some money but just the thrill of finding a new predictor. you run the simulation and you see, oh my goodness, this is a real statistical advantage, and it's independent of the other ones, and you build up the system that way."

"the risk control things, dumb things maybe, but how to model, for example, the right way to model costs. we found what I consider the right way to do this modeling. when we started, there was nobody else doing that."

one independent predictor stacked on the next, the cost models nobody talks about. that process became medallion, an estimated $100 billion in trading profits, the most profitable hedge fund in history.

[Trader Theory @tradertheory]

Ex Goldman Sachs trader on how your trading life reflects your personal life.

[Nate @Natan_benish]

fyi we had around ~10k new launches with the new pre-IPO feature release.

just imagine what would've happened if we didn't enforce ticker locks + client limits on new launches. we would've probably seen 100k launches within a single day.

this is where a platform becomes a product used by bots rather than real humans, who can't possibly filter through so many new assets. this ends up driving FOMO trades and chasing volume, which is not hard to inflate.

now also imagine what might be the effect of these launch limits constantly being tweaked with more demand coming in, esp once LONG will start scale very fast(hint concatenation of liquidity + flows into the best and most unique assets in the eco)

we are going to win so much that you'll get tired of winning.

next steps:

1. I want to apply filters that help users discover assets based on a variety of params (whale %, age, anti-fragility and some surprises). I think this is something we can innovate on as well. just better discovery.

2. we are actively monitoring any suspicious activity across all pairs. as I said, it's not hard to tweak our params. I don't see anything critical as of now, but we're already preparing some new params we can execute on with a click of a button, as soon as we feel like PNDs are becoming coordinated rather than organic market activity(remember AI nuked by 80%+ like 4 times)

3. As always, I think the best trading style on LONG is to find a team/project you think can cook and grow out of bad periods, help them out, and build a nice Longfolio of PVE assets. Keep in mind all of our top pairs were able to break ATHs or sustain value weeks post launch.

LONG.