Optimal Lap

LO analyst

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@negligible_cap It’s just 15 days. Could file Monday and start the 10th which is still plenty of time. Wouldn’t be surprised if bankers want the weekend to finalize. If nothing Monday then start to think push

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@uncovered_alpha Exactly, there’s a reason the more senior you get the simpler your models become. Isolate the 2-3 key items, keep the rest as simple as possible as it’s just noise.

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@labubu_trader Insanely cheap IF you believe re-accel and they can achieve anywhere close to a SaaS margin

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@NetSeg_io @bubbleboi I’m increasingly positive SPCX, and think both can win! If you’re bullish SPCX and expect longer bottleneck, should definitely look at SEI

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@NetSeg_io @bubbleboi Infrastructure is a temporary bottleneck, not a durable moat. Attracting the leading edge AI talent is. Ant splits high margin frontier biz with OAI, and gets smaller but fair share of the larger, lower margin lightweight market

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@GraciousVik I’d expect they outperform a 30% 4y cagr in an oligopoly scenario where they take large share of frontier, and fair share of lightweight. Can debate margin but 80-85% gross margin today would suggest 30% op is achievable.

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@huaxying Why do you think AI would change it? IMO if anything ai will reinforce more fee pressure and leaner research teams asked to do more. It’s very difficult to do deep research when you’re spread across hundreds of names

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@TMTLongShort What is this chart actually telling us? Of course the largest spenders are AI natives, with some leading edge enterprises. It’s actually positive nearly 9/10 of typical spenders are not VC funded and have a long runway left to increase spend

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@PseudoPrism @evisdrenova I can’t explain exactly why today, but feel like in hindsight this will be like saying in 2014 the iPhone 6 did everything I’d ever need and will never need more capability

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@negligible_cap Yea Ant ain’t coming at 1.5T. Assuming no negative earnings surprises feels like we hit the ST peak AI fear last week. Probably a 1.5-1.7T range, prices at 1.8, immediately pops to 2+

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@ezyrider @MosesSternstein Nice straw man. You asked for markets where best closed players capture the economics. Not talking about the hyperscalers. Talking application software. Everyone thought open source would capture spend and it never did.

You can argue LLMs are infra, but that’s a diff argument

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@ezyrider @MosesSternstein False. Suggest you study the ~2015-2018 period where software investors thought open source would take over. Never happened.

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@ezyrider @MosesSternstein Poor examples. Does open source software capture majority of enterprise spend?

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@MF_Camillus Assuming all accurate. Will be very interesting to see how they message this in IPO. Seems like we are unlikely to get another ARR print, unless Oct is huge

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@BuffOnTheBrain Yea you need antenna asap

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@TripleNetInvest @alphahabilis You play golf and think watching sports is a waste of time? 😂

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@Jason @AnthropicAI Didn’t think the all in guys could reach a new level of retarded

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@Para_Capital These are right but obvious to the more sophisticated investors. Seems like the smarter bears are arguing the mature unit economics don’t justify the build cost. I disagree on clear value prop of the tech, but harder to disprove

[Optimal Lap @optimal_lap]

@tailrisked Correct, my PMs like to sell low and buy high