rukja

PhD student @HarvardMed; Fellow @DecisionDeskHQ; Iceland, Lithuania for @EuropeElects

[rukja @orukja]

Buckle up, huge thread!

In 1988, voters in Arizona narrowly passed Prop. 106, which aimed to make English the official language of the state. The AZ Supreme Court struck it down in '98, but Prop 103. made English the official language again in '06.

#Electiontwitter

[rukja @orukja]

@ChazNuttycombe @cinyc9 @gelliottmorris The conversation would’ve been vastly different if the polling miss were in the other direction.

[rukja @orukja]

@baym What about for early PhD/computational bio students?

[rukja @orukja]

The AP voter poll hints at this directly, as @baseballot describes below.
https://t.co/8OvXXIIP97

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

And on the issues, voter anger at Republicans was (obviously) incredibly deep. But the Voter Poll showed that voters aren't necessarily in love with Democrats, either. They're on the clock now. https://t.co/bdOxbRRUYn

[rukja @orukja]

Were these elections a vote for Dems or against Trump?

Largely driven by US House races, these midterms had the largest % of D vs. R races with the winner receiving less than 50% of the vote.

Voters aren't in love with either party.

Data from @DecisionDeskHQ

[rukja @orukja]

There's no doubt this was a D tsunami, but the data shows that voters aren't particularly enamored with Democrats. As @lxeagle17 work shows, Dems still have work to do. With this historic majority, they have the chance to do just that.

https://t.co/ZbyHsMDMj4

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

Here's how our poll lines up. Voters...

- haven't forgotten the Democratic weaknesses on crime (R+7).
- remain distrustful of Democrats on immigration (R+1).
- don't align heavily with Dems (see chart)
- *Still* vote blue (D+11) because the median voter now hates Trump/the GOP.

[Louis Riel @theGhostOfRiel]

I redid the NYT blue wave map they put out, and extended it to previous years as well. You can really understand how big this wave was compared to everything else in recent history. 3.1 GB of data in 23 seconds.

[Derek Holliday @d_e_holliday]

This means most of Kalshi’s “superior” performance can be reproduced with one naive directional bet: take the forecaster model average and nudge every race toward the Democrat. No special insight required. Even better if you start with the best forecasting model. 6/9

[rukja @orukja]

Happy to answer questions about the analysis. The specific races I chose only had a D and R in the top two (no third place D) and were single member districts (NH I'm looking at you). Statewide races included gov, LG, AG, and secretary of state.

[rukja @orukja]

It also supports what polling has found, as @marywitha4 summarizes here
https://t.co/GcJBH46eAV

[Mary Radcliffe @marywitha4]

Voters didn’t choose Democrats because they like them. Being the lesser of two evils makes you still evil, in voters’ minds. Favorability for both parties is still underwater, and gains in deep red places probably won’t hold.

[Jesse🔸⏹️ @PoliticalKiwi]

@benwfreeman1 @NateSilver538 Corrected graph, the previous one had the dates wrong. FLIPR definitely moved the markets when it launched, an average of about 20% of the gap

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office

Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ

[rukja @orukja]

@JerusalemDemsas @politicsmaps @TheArgumentMag Great to see you and the scope of your work grow @lxeagle17

[rukja @orukja]

@lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris What about forecast tails? Where did the outcome (say Dems wins all outstanding races) fall in the percentile of your joint simulations?

[rukja @orukja]

@umichvoter Bigger on DDHQ. nearly 2k

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

There are a lot of races on the ballot this cycle, and many only became competitive late in the season, as seen on @DecisionDeskHQ.

To get a feel for how the night is going, watch these Senate races! FL and SC are quick counters and will likely be called early.

[rukja @orukja]

@twizzyu I trust your Kansas knowledge. What do you think happens at Gov and Sen and why?

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Of all of @uscdfelab CA polling there are only 2 of 7 districts to vote for Newsom over Harris in a head to head match up

In 2028 CA will be one of the most important states to win in the Dem Primary. Harris has lost in every Bay Area district polled, despite being her home turf

[Drew Gifford @drewgiff]

I'm having fun making a dashboard on Votes for every poll closing, as I finish them I'll drop them in this thread ⬇️

[rukja @orukja]

@galendruke Galen where are they 😭

[Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 @michaelzlin]

Imagine if some high school bros drew some buildings on CAD software then got all excited and declared software programmers have solved the most pressing problem of humanity: How to build more bulldings cheaply.

Actually, no need to imagine. Just read below.