overjumped

market musings, hot takes, misc.

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@mixedusezoning @ClintVSmith I get it, but go binary as a thought experiment: If all 65+ work and all 65+ receive a pension, what's the point? How is that any different from a 25 y/o, or a 50 y/o...

[overjumped @overjumped_]

(1) We were a bit late to the party with KS, but I'd argue Australia has one of the more sophisticated retirement schemes globally

(2) I agree but that hits all demographics, and under the surface: One group gets to keep their jobs (via tenure / 'top of field') and gets a universal income, the other group can't get into the job market and has to fund the universal income now and forever.

[overjumped @overjumped_]

Sounds fine in theory, but tax is not paying for this nor are we paying for it "out of this year's economy"? As evidenced by every deficit this decade, we are by definition borrowing from future generations to pay for this.

Super costs are increasing by ~$1.5b/yr, thus we'd need to tax this amount more each year just to hold our ~$14b deficit.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Harbour Energy $HBR.L generated $700M in FCF at $76/bbl oil price in Q1 and trades for $6.5B

They're guiding for $1.4B in FCF at $80/bbl

That's a 36% FCF yield at well under spot oil

And they'll pay out up to 75% of that to shareholders with a strong base dividend

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

CENTCOM: We have started strikes in Iran in response to the downing of the Apache helicopter

[overjumped @overjumped_]

"Why their profits are consistently high..."
They're valued at a cumulative ~$39b... meaning they make 2.6% if you annualise those HY earnings.

Who wants to invest in a company that makes 2.6% on high risk capital projects... and if no one wants to invest, then where does the company get the money to build?

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@toiletkingcap The market vs overjumped today

[overjumped @overjumped_]

Too many big words for me, I presume that's just saying no it's not debt, but rather an unfunded obligation? Which in my opinion is semantics...

Because eventually you need to fund it and if that comes via decreasing assets or increasing liabilities, the Govts Net Worth today is ultimately mis-stated.

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@AucklandIsland Can we petition for cheaper coffee while we're at it, I'm sick of paying $5.50 for a long black

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@DaxxTrader What is price action LTWV trading?

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@kellyenz Meanwhile...

https://t.co/3WvF8QHeYn

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Nitrogen fertilizers trade is half of what it used to be

[overjumped @overjumped_]

Based on recent $VMC.ax deal, I get a market value of A$100m for $FZR.ax royalty!

I think Youanmi and Snowy River are reasonable comps - both UG, high-grade, potential for extension/expansion... wonder if some larger players are looking for 'geographical diversification' into NZ 🤔

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

$FZR.AX officially filed to dispute the Snowy River buyout clause. Whilst the outcome is uncertain the market price of the royalty is >$40m easily. I’d expect a settlement but interesting times!

https://t.co/DwNvZURuCB

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@LittleTreesCap Sneaky little collection of royalties in there + Chair owns ~30% + returns capital to SHs 😏

[overjumped @overjumped_]

Fitzroy River / $FZR.ax getting interesting..

Trades at A$20m, with courts to determine either:
(1) Royalty buy-out invalid: ~A$12m/yr
*Retains royalty over near-production project, set to produce 60kozpa over 10yrs (w. upside)
*3% for first 1m ounces, 1.5% thereafter
(2) Royalty buy-out valid: A$12m cash to bank

My take is that Endura missed the boat on the buy-out... (which would be a massive blunder by a fairly reputable team...)

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@jeremie0117 @AurelionRsch Weird flex at 5.30pm - don't stay up too late 😤

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

🚢Maersk suspends Strait of Hormuz transits; says Middle East conflict adds >$500m/month in costs
Security in the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated amid US‑Israel‑Iran fighting, prompting Danish shipping giant Maersk to suspend vessel transits and activate contingency plans, including land routing of cargo. Maersk’s chief commercial officer Carsten Kildahl said the measures protect crew but are creating severe economic pressure: direct Gulf trades and other routes face higher costs from rerouting and rising fuel, with incremental expenses already exceeding $500m/month. The group cannot absorb the full burden and will pass some costs to customers, many of whom are also facing higher raw‑material prices. Industry contacts say higher transport and production costs may feed through to consumer prices. (https://t.co/mXdRues767)

[overjumped @overjumped_]

@BSSONMYBS

[overjumped @overjumped_]

Exactly 3 months on... buying more today... still in the 7s🙄
$STO.ax

[overjumped @overjumped_]

Everyone fading O&G (sell the news..) but I'm happy to take some $STO.ax here...

Don't wanna chase anything, but this still feels cheap (regardless of current world events), as has been thoroughly discussed by others..
Growing pdn, prioritising SH returns, trades below bid price of $8.90, trading at ~6x trailing OCF
(on 2025 CFO of US$2.8b/~A$4b)

Force majeures and strikes on infrastructure threatening global pdn, Hormuz-issues, QatarEnergy rumoured offline (~20% of global LNG); lots of supply risk to Asian gas... yet this feels like a contrarian position to take