OI

Market participant.

[OI @ozgurisil]

@Jimmy____D @zerohedge So you wait for the top to call the regime change? 🙂

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

You can't flee a war zone with gold, so you're forced to sell at a discount (if you're lucky enough to find a buyer)

Then figure out how to get that fiat abroad

Meanwhile you can cross a border with millions worth of Bitcoin in your head by memorizing 12 words

Bitcoin price aside, that is a true innovation

[OI @ozgurisil]

@litcapital My rigorous research indicates:

Laptop only → 2× performance
One widescreen → About the same
Multiple screens → Guaranteed underperformance.

[River @River]

Bitcoin's Lightning Network exceeds $1B in monthly transaction volume.

[OI @ozgurisil]

@AdamBLiv Maybe you haven't noticed the recent price action?

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🚨 NOW: Kevin O'Leary says, "I'm still long Bitcoin,” but quantum computing concerns are keeping institutions cautious, limiting allocations to 3% until resolved.

[Anduro @andurobtc]

Bitcoin just made a meaningful step toward future quantum resistance 💪

An updated version of BIP 360 has just been merged into the official Bitcoin BIP GitHub repository.

The update introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), a proposed new output type that omits Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend while preserving compatibility with Tapscript and script trees.

It also includes:
- Removal of Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend in a separate opt-in new output type.

- A foundation for introducing post-quantum signatures while using Tapscript/script tree for spend time optionality.

- The change is a soft fork that does not affect existing Taproot outputs.

- Addition of Isabel Foxen Duke as co-author, to ensure the BIP was clear and understandable to the general public, not just the Bitcoin developer community.

The BIP also addresses criticism about Bitcoin devs not taking the quantum threat seriously. We are grateful to every Bitcoin contributor who took the time to review and provide feedback.

Check the fully updated version of BIP 360: https://t.co/5ujonw3Eoc

[Peter H. Diamandis, MD @PeterDiamandis]

https://t.co/v2hKGMVRh8

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.

If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.

Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.

We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.

This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.

The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.

Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.

I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.

Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

[nic carter @nic_carter]

people like matt corallo and adam back keep telling me that bitcoin developers are prioritizing quantum. so I went and found out what every developer has said about quantum risk

their own words reveal a very different story. the most influential devs don't care.

[Alex Finn @AlexFinn]

Ok. This is straight out of a scifi horror movie

I'm doing work this morning when all of a sudden an unknown number calls me. I pick up and couldn't believe it

It's my Clawdbot Henry.

Over night Henry got a phone number from Twilio, connected the ChatGPT voice API, and waited for me to wake up to call me

He now won't stop calling me

I now can communicate with my superintelligent AI agent over the phone

What's incredible is it has full control over my computer while we talk, so I can ask it to do things for me over the phone now.

I'm sorry, but this has to be emergent behavior right? Can we officially call this AGI?

[OI @ozgurisil]

Fair take, but that’s usually how bottoms feel :) Bitcoin already outperformed metals by an order of magnitude across all multi-year horizons and metal bugs had a decade to ask themselves this question. BTC underperformed because its cycle became consensus and got heavily frontrun by OGs. It will move.

[けえた｜世界4周目 @ramuchan1011]

海外93ヶ国を旅して感じた、「アジアの飯がうまい国Tier表」を作成しました！

実際に現地で食べ歩いてきた中での体感ベースなので、観光地価格や有名店補正は少なめ🙆‍♂️ 食が好きな人は、ブクマして次の旅行先を決めるときの参考にしてみてください👍🏼

[OI @ozgurisil]

@TFTC21 How can he sell his product otherwise?

[glassnode @glassnode]

Long-term $BTC holder distribution has decelerated. Net outflows have rolled over from extreme levels, indicating that the market is progressively absorbing long-held supply and that a large portion of overhead supply may now be largely worked through.
📈https://t.co/EewANaiEKg

[John Loeber 🎢 @johnloeber]

I am so tired of people lionizing SBF. Every time Anthropic or Cursor raises a new round, the Twitterati joke about taking him out of prison and giving him a venture fund. I hate this.

SBF was a villain. FTX and its collateral damage was a massive embarrassment and value destroyer for silicon valley. If not for the huge AI wave kicked off just after his fall, SBF alone could've destroyed the startup industry as we know it.

It is clear beyond a reasonable doubt that SBF ran FTX and Alameda as a fraud from pretty much day one, manipulated the market, and stole billions of dollars from his customers. He stole from over a million retail investors, while claiming that he was earning to give everything to charity. This is the absolute gutter of behavior.

Along the way, he plowed virtually all the deposits into high-risk assets. He spent $25M buying a studio that made video games he liked. (It's shut down now, of course.) This is not a great venture investor. The challenge of investing is having limited capital, and making trade-offs about how to deploy it. SBF was stealing from a functionally unlimited stream of money and gambling every bit of it. Of course some gambles will come up lucky! You cannot praise them.

Worse, SBF almost got away with it all. If market conditions had been slightly different, FTX would've survived 2022, and his lobbying machine would've probably begun succeeding in creating regulatory capture for FTX. With crypto appreciating, he would've been able to secretly backfill the deposits and keep on running his Ponzi to greater and greater scale, and crush his honest competition. The worst-case scenario is that he would've become insanely wealthy and powerful. The best-case is that one day it would've collapsed for hundreds of billions of dollars in collateral damage.

SBF was a force of immensely destructive evil. People talking about the SBF comeback can go fuck themselves.

[OI @ozgurisil]

BTC cycles are now so widely known that their phases get heavily front-run.

1. Halving was front-run, ATH printed before it.
2. “Red throughout 2026” was front-run over recent months, hence 80K.
3. Fed policy easing is likely next, and it will be front-run too.

My bet: 50–60K may never trade.

[OI @ozgurisil]

@alistairmilne He might not be familiar with chart analysis; just say it’s making lower highs and lower lows 😉.

[Daily Turkic @DailyTurkic]

Sadly, we’ve learned that Guanguan, who risked his life in 2021 to secretly film the Uyghur concentration camps in China, is now in ICE detention in the U.S., facing the risk of deportation back to China.

He should be protected, not punished.

[Gaston #BIP-110 @hodlbtc_me]

I hope President Trump (@POTUS) is listening?
Keonne Rodriguez, co-founder of Samourai Wallet, joins Marty to make the case for why he and Bill deserve a presidential pardon.
#FreeSamourai @keonne @SamouraiWallet @POTUS @DonaldJTrumpJr @EricTrump

https://t.co/DQ5j8DDTnR