Pancho Cortes @panchocortes - Twitter Profile

7 days ago

We Are About To Experience The Personal Agent Supercycle AI is rarely accused of being underestimated. But I think the movement forming around personal agents is highly underestimated. We have been talking about agents for a while. But outside the AI-pilled corner of X, I don’t think most people have internalized what happens when anyone can have a capable coworker that keeps working after they close their laptop. My thesis is that personal agents will trigger another compounding AI supercycle. Consumer adoption, enterprise demand and infrastructure consumption will accelerate together. Consider the early signals. In August, @OpenRouter data shared by @a16z showed agents consuming nearly 5x as many tokens as human-driven usage on its platform. @Deloitte projects inference will account for roughly two-thirds of AI compute in 2026. One person delegating a goal can set off an extended chain of planning, execution and verification. The amount of work we delegate becomes a new driver of demand. Now combine that with mass consumer distribution. @Meta’s @Muse brings personal agents into @WhatsApp. Meta knows how to make sophisticated technology accessible to enormous audiences. That is a meaningful advantage in a category where adoption depends on people experiencing something they struggle to understand from a description. Whether it is @Muse, Instinct, @Grokbot, @OpenAI or another player, personal agents could make power-user capability available through an ordinary conversation. People won’t need to master a collection of tools to experience what those tools can accomplish. My bet is that the next 12 to 15 months will bring a much faster move toward mainstream adoption than most companies are planning for. And that experience will travel into the enterprise. Once people routinely delegate meaningful work in their personal lives, they will expect similar capabilities at work. Consumer adoption becomes a training ground for enterprise adoption. Companies will face growing pressure from their own employees to make this possible. The biggest constraint, in my view, will be trusted delegation and infrastructure availability. An agent’s usefulness expands with the access we give it. So does the consequence of a mistake. Without access to our applications, data and tools, much of its potential remains inaccessible. Granting that access requires confidence in its judgment, clear limits on its authority, visibility into its actions and the ability to intervene. That makes safety and security central to adoption itself. Every improvement in trust can unlock more delegation. More delegation creates demand for the compute, memory, networking and power needed to support it. This is the compounding effect I think we are underestimating. More people discovering what agents can do. More work entrusted to them. More enterprise demand. More infrastructure required. We are approaching another ChatGPT moment in AI. I thought @OpenClaw might be that moment, but its setup complexity limited its reach. The next breakthrough may come from agents that hide that complexity entirely: a Muse, Instinct, Grokbot or OpenAI product that lets anyone delegate a long-running task in a simple conversation and return to a completed result. Delegation will feel natural, trustworthy and reliable at scale over the next few months. Every task users are willing to hand over will expand the market for agents and the infrastructure required to run them. The next ChatGPT moment is fast arriving. The next AI supercycle is forming right in front of our eyes. 3 months from now will look very different for personal productivity provided safety and security make progress which they will, however we will continue to have demand outstrip supply in infra if personal agents proliferate as much as I think they will.

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Pancho Cortes

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