Bull markets have lasted 5x longer than bear markets on average.
Bulls: +254% over 5 years🐂
Bears: -31% over 1 year🐻
Markets spend far more time growing wealth than destroying it. Why interrupting compounding is the biggest risk of all.
Video: https://t.co/cVstceJQGv
The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.
But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.
Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?
And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.
But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?
I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
Luck is a mathematical equation.
You increase your odds by putting yourself in places where rare opportunities can find you, by repeating high-upside actions long enough for variance to work in your favour, by building skills that make you useful when the door opens, by staying healthy enough to keep playing, and by taking enough intelligent risks that one of them eventually compounds.
More than half of Gen Z investors redirected investing dollars into sports betting over the last year.
And 26% now consider betting part of their long-term financial strategy.
This is a terrible trend. Investing builds wealth over time. Gambling is designed to take it.
School, politics, sports, and games train us to compete against others. True rewards - wealth, knowledge, love, fitness, and equanimity - come from ignoring others and improving ourselves.
@naval
I want to thank everyone for the outpouring of love and thank you for believing in me to lead the company that has always put you at the center of our work. This is not goodbye. It’s a hello to John and I can’t wait for you to get to know him like I do! 🙏