Phil Brown Weather

Commodity Trading Meteorologist, BSc Meteorology Uni Reading, UKMet, Met Eireann, Private sector. Expertise in medium to long term weather forecasts and climate

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@PROLIFICSHlTTER @DonSuth89069583 Both the long lasting continental summer heat highs and wintertime cold highs have a stable inversion above them from sinking air that keeps the low level air trapped.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@PROLIFICSHlTTER @DonSuth89069583 There are 3 main types of winter highs. Short lasting cold core highs e.g. post cold front, long lasting radiative cooling continental highs e.g. Siberian high (cold dome like) and there are subtropical mainly oceanic highs e.g. Azores high. 1st 2 are low level cold dense air.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@ChrisMartzWX I disagree with you. The most impactful event on the temperature scale for life on this planet is when water changes from liquid (rain) to ice (snow/frost). It makes sense to have the temp scale centred at the freezing point. 32 deg F is random for this important temp transition.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@RyanWeather Meteorologists don't use GFS because it's shite. Only online bloggers and media do. However, one big problem is that most phone apps use GFS data because it's free. The person on the street walks around thinking it's going to be 58 degC 10 days ahead.

[Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1]

A small subset of scientists agree with that conclusion. There are other probable explanations for the current changes, driven by winds and strong wind events south of Greenland, which are becoming stronger because of stronger contrast between the Greenland Ice sheet and warmer and increasingly warm waters farther south.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@JeffHooper24784 @peblackstock @Tw_timerAlder A valid one. We have many of past obs to fill model parameters, but climate models can't recreate the past climate without fudge factors. Therefore it's perfectly valid to question future predictions. The graph shown by Zeke is a selection of best fit models not all of them.

[Richard Lyon @RichardLyon_]

The scheme is Contracts for Difference. The government fixes a 'strike price' for every unit a wind farm generates and holds it for twenty years. When the market price falls below it, we pay the difference. It's a levy on suppliers, folded into your unit rate.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@NachbarLumpis @orwell2022 (" since both (aerosols & clouds) had the opposite effect before 1980 they can‘t be claimed as feedbacks of CO2 which is constantly rising for >100years")

Good point. Although raising global temps, raises dewpoint temps in the lower atmosphere which could explain SC cloud loss.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@orwell2022 @WEschenbach Interesting. There is no doubt there has been warming from GHGs, but I have strong suspicions that some of the warming trend is from a combo of bad siting, urban sprawl, smaller screens and also not adjusting for the transition to faster response times of PRT thermometers.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@orwell2022 There has been a reduction in stratocumulus cloud globally particularly in oceanic and subtropical regions thought to be associated with aerosol reduction, so the affect is global albeit perhaps much smaller away from urban centres. @WEschenbach has done work on this.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@Tw_timerAlder @TheRealRolfster @rahmstorf @PanirL17903 I'm a meteorologist. I rely on data, specifically observed data to come to a conclusion. Any good atmospheric scientist will tell you that all weather an climate models have significant flaws mainly due to parameter estimations and resolution.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@Tw_timerAlder @TheRealRolfster @rahmstorf @PanirL17903 (" The negatives dwarf any small positives. That’s very very clear. ")

Feel free to show real global wide observed (not modelled) evidence of this claim.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@Tw_timerAlder @TheRealRolfster @rahmstorf @PanirL17903 Global Desert areas have declined due to increased rainfall, CO2 induced increased plant growth and human development.
https://t.co/GyuTa2ii05

I could go on but suspect it will make no difference. I would step outside the media, activist and politic arena and look at obs data.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@Tw_timerAlder @TheRealRolfster @rahmstorf @PanirL17903 Greenland is the greatest contributor to SLR but would take about 10000 years to melt at double our existing SLR.
https://t.co/7L4KvvwRUi

https://t.co/9DHjaeaoIZ

Just in time for the next orbital induced iceage to start.
https://t.co/cwoz55GejB

https://t.co/35Y0fIwskM

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@Tw_timerAlder @TheRealRolfster @rahmstorf @PanirL17903 Ok. List negatives and we can compare to see if you a right.

[Phil Brown Weather @pbweather]

@Tw_timerAlder @TheRealRolfster @rahmstorf @PanirL17903 1. More biota growth both on land and sea.
2. Warmer more expansive liveable land areas in colder latitudes.
3. More rainfall and smaller desert areas allowing expanded liveable land.
4. Weaker mid-Latitude storms due to decreased polar
/equator temp gradient.
All observered!