Kyber is Nvidia’s next generation rack architecture, the NVL144 system Jensen demoed at GTC just three months ago, and now it is reportedly delayed. (Save this).
It was supposed to be the successor to the current NVL72 Blackwell rack, doubling the GPU density per rack to 144 chips and representing the next major leap in AI training infrastructure.
Three months after that demo, SemiAnalysis is reporting it has been delayed by more than 12 months, pushing it to 2028.
On top of that, the NVL72x2 back to back rack which was being positioned as a bridge architecture to replace Kyber has apparently been cancelled entirely.x+1
The core reason for the delay is technical.
Kyber was designed to use co-packaged optics, CPO for the scale up interconnect between GPUs inside the rack.
CPO integrates optical components directly onto the chip package, dramatically increasing bandwidth and reducing power consumption at the rack level.
But the manufacturing yield rates on CPO optical engines, the difficulty of integrating them with the ASIC, and the cost structure have all proven harder to crack at volume than projected.
AMD and Marvell benefit from any architecture environment that extends Blackwell's dominance, because both are competing for the next generation of custom silicon at hyperscalers who are now more motivated than ever to reduce dependency on a single Nvidia roadmap.
When Nvidia delays, hyperscalers accelerate their own chip programs and AMD and Marvell are the primary beneficiaries of that spending.
Broadcom benefits the same way, its custom accelerator business building bespoke AI chips for Google, Meta, and Anthropic becomes more attractive every time Nvidia's roadmap slips.
Now for AAOI and this is where the market is likely to get it wrong.
Most people have been treating Applied Optoelectronics as a CPO play and that framing is incorrect.
AAOI supplies high power lasers and optical components that enable Near Packaged Optics, CPO, and its own On Board Optics solutions but the majority of its current revenue comes from pluggable transceivers, not CPO.
It has been winning volume orders for 1.6T transceivers and positioning its ELSFP lasers as a foundation for next-generation NPO and CPO architectures.
That distinction matters enormously right now.
The Kyber delay means the full CPO transition gets pushed out which keeps pluggable optics, the core of AAOI's business today, in heavy demand for at least two more years of the most aggressive AI cluster buildout in history.
Every NVL72 rack that ships instead of waiting for Kyber uses pluggable transceivers and every month the CPO integration is delayed is another month of near-term revenue from hyperscalers scaling AI clusters right now.
The irony is that Nvidia's Rubin Ultra manufacturing hiccups and spec downgrades, the exact problems causing the Kyber delay are keeping demand strong for the more mature, modular optics that AAOI actually sells today.
And because AAOI makes a lot more from pluggable and near-package products than from CPO, it benefits in the immediate term even more than the pure CPO narrative would suggest.
Bullish on AAOI and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more overlooked semiconductor ideas.
$MU $DRAM $SNDK Total memory revenue
$2,625 billion by 2030
14x growth. Six years.
Commodities do not grow 14x in six years. Foundational AI Infrastructure does.
Stop asking when the cycle ends. Start asking how much intelligence the world will need.
$2.6 Trillions
Reason all Christians Like
Thulasi Chandu aka Tracey Patricia
Joseph Ravan
Prakash Anthony Rai
Jada Sravan
Vijay Kumar
United Against Pawan kalyan
Since 2024 All Conversions in Andhra have been Reduced
Pawan Kalyan Started Developing Tribal Villages
In Turn All people in those tribal areas Are returning to Hinduism
idi agali ante vela goal Malli Pro Conversion Party YCP ravali
The opposition spent years doing nothing but symbolic stone layings, leaving Marwar in the dust. Today, PM @narendramodi Ji delivers a ₹79,000+ Crore "state of the art" BS-VI refinery creating nearly 90k jobs. Cry all you want but you can't hide the scale of this development.🙏
"Ram & Krishna appear thousands of times in Guru Granth. How many times does Allah come? Hindu-Sikhs respect each other's daughters but Muslims run 'Kaur to Khan' r@pe gangs for conversion. Sikhs are not close to Muslims. It's a Khalistani lie."
The IDF found this book in a school in southern Lebanon.
It teaches children how to execute the infidels.
This is what Israel is fighting against.
This is why Israel must destroy Hezbollah.
Mamdani got the whole American dream in eight years. Came here as a kid, got citizenship in 2018, now he runs the biggest city in the country.
And on America's 250th birthday he sat down at George Washington's desk and told us everything wrong with the place.
I'm not even angry. I'm disappointed.
Here's the picture he painted:
He mocked the people who supposedly think America "becomes less the more people it welcomes."
Said it belongs "only to those with the right accent or the right shade of skin."
Called our streets a place where "masked agents" are "terrorizing" people.
Said the country's wealth was built by "calloused, dirt-streaked hands" and then left to rot.
Looked out from Washington's desk and called the Americans who built this economy "small" and "weak."
Okay Mamdani. You hate it so much, why'd you come here?
Let's put that picture up against the actual country.
He's a Muslim kid born in Uganda and he's the mayor of New York. A guy back in his own birthplace said it plainly: over there he'd have had to claw his way in. Here we held the door open.
We've got the most diverse Congress in our history. It was never about skin color, no matter how many years the left spent forcing that story onto a country that kept proving them wrong.
A machine that grinds immigrants down? Nearly half the Fortune 500 was started by immigrants or their kids. 231 companies.
Apple, son of a Syrian.
Google, a kid who came over from the Soviet Union.
Amazon, son of a Cuban.
Put them together and they out-earn Japan, out-earn Germany. That's not a country grinding people into the dirt. That's a country handing them the keys.
It's been and always will be the land of opportunity.
And more people want in here than anywhere else alive. 53 million immigrants live here, the most of any nation on earth. We're 4% of the world's people and we hold 17% of the world's migrants.
Every year since 2007 you ask the whole planet where it'd go if it could go anywhere, the answer comes back the same. America. Number one. The line to get in wraps around the globe.
Here's the line he won't draw. I will.
Legal immigration built this country. The strivers. That's the front door working the way it's supposed to, and I'll defend it all day. You need to earn your spot, respect our laws and customs.
But that's not what we're running anymore.
Four years of Biden's open border blew the doors off. The foreign-born share of this country just hit 15.8%. An all-time high. Higher than Ellis Island, more than triple what it was in 1970.
The Census Bureau didn't expect that number until 2042 and we smashed past it. And on top of it, a record 14 million people here illegally, who cut in front of every single person who did it the right way.
The front door built America from Ellis Island to today. The fence is a different thing. Pretending they're the same is how you end up calling every American who wants a secure border a bigot.
And we've earned the right to standards. This is the most wanted country on the planet. We get to choose who walks in. You want in? Build something. Contribute. Earn it. Nobody's owed anything.
You come illegally, you commit crimes, you steal from taxpayers, you should get deported. That's not terrorizing the streets.
Mamdani walked through that front door in 2018. He of all people should be defending it. Instead he stood at Washington's desk and spent his speech blurring the line between the people who came the right way and the ones who broke in.
The man even admitted out loud that America is exceptional. Then spent the rest explaining why it isn't. On the one day the whole country stops to celebrate itself, he reached for the darkest story he could find.
That's not a man who's lost about America. That's a man who's angry at the country that gave him everything he has.
You don't like it here? Nobody made you come.
Nobody's stopping you from leaving. But you won't. They never do. Because there's nowhere else on earth that hands a person this much of a shot.
This country took him in and made him a mayor. He owes it. It doesn't owe him a thing.
We're not perfect. We're the best odds a human being has ever been handed. 250 years old, the richest and freest country alive, and the whole world is still clawing to get in while nobody's trying to leave.
They hold America to a standard they'd never hold anyone else to, then act shocked it falls short.
It's nonsense.
Respect the country. Especially when it's the reason you're standing at that desk at all.
No matter how you spell it, 250 years of American innovation, ingenuity & curiosity is something to celebrate. Have a happy & safe 4th of July!
On behalf of 1.4 billion Indians, I extend my warmest congratulations to President Trump and the people of the United States on the historic 250th anniversary of your Independence.
India and the United States share more than a strategic partnership. Our shared belief in democracy, rule of law and the limitless potential of our people make our friendship a force for global good.
May the next 250 years bring even greater prosperity, peace and progress for America and take the India-US partnership to new heights.
@POTUS@realDonaldTrump
Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.
Quantum barely has any revenue.
$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)
$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.
Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.
So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.
Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).
Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.
Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.
Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back.
But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out.
Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.
"You called me a beautiful younger sister, Prime Minister Modi, but at the small meeting before the big meeting, we confirmed that we are on the same page and will develop this relationship as brother and sister," says Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi during press statement with Indian PM Narendra Modi
(Source: ANI)
Memory and storage are in the tightest supply the industry has seen in years. Critical industries like automotive, medical and defense need certainty as much as they need capacity.
Today Micron and General Motors expanded our strategic partnership. Through this strategic customer agreement, GM secures long-term supply of LPDRAM, NOR and UFS NAND, the memory and storage behind AI-enabled in-cabin experiences and advanced driver assistance in next-generation vehicles.
This is backed by capital already deployed, not just intent. Our $2 billion modernization of the Manassas, Virginia fab began production this year, giving GM the U.S.-based, long-cycle supply that automotive platforms are built on.
Mary Barra said it well: “Delivering next-generation vehicles at scale requires a resilient and closely aligned supply chain. Our expanded collaboration with Micron strengthens our access to critical memory technologies.”
We’re grateful for GM’s trust in Micron over decades. This is what two great American companies deliver when they commit to each other for the long term, supply predictability in a market that needs it, and a technology roadmap that keeps vehicles safer, smarter and more capable.
Proud of what two teams are building together.
https://t.co/Ak8EoEPYmU
#Semiconductors #Automotive #Manufacturing
Birthright citizenship tale... Our social circle in Maskachusetts included a guy married to a Honduran. Every time one of his wife's relatives is pregnant she comes to stay with them. When it is time to deliver the baby, the relative Ubers to one of the most expensive hospitals in the world, e.g., Beth Israel. She gives birth, says the magic words to avoid ever receiving a bill ("I'm undocumented"), and, after a few weeks, heads back to Honduras with baby, birth certificate, and U.S. passport. This one family has likely cost taxpayers at least $300,000 in payments to the hospital for "uncompensated care" and more than 10 U.S. citizens have been minted. When the kids are adults they have an automatic right to sponsor their parents for green cards, so eventually this one family will be responsible for perhaps 40 or 50 legal immigrants from Honduras to the U.S.