Pierre Sas

Europe is my playground interests in geopolitics economics Milan/Paris

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

He read my piece

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Do yourself a favour and follow my friend Lakshmi if you are into oil — and add a bit of motivation for her to become an active member of this community.

She is one of the most authoritative oil-market voices I know, with a depth of understanding few in the market can match. She probably also has the most no-nonsense tone in the business: says it exactly as she sees it, whichever way the conclusion points: long or short; and she doesn’t mince her words. I love that.

Best of all, among many other things, she does her own proprietary barrel tracking across the hottest spots comme il faut: SoH, BeM, Chinese consumption, Russian refinery runs — and a growing list beyond.

Thanks to her sharing her dark-fleet numbers with me — incredibly time-consuming and expensive work if done comme il faut — I was finally able to make sense of the oil puzzle in July. I’m not famous for requiring handholding. But in this new age of dark transportation at scale, we all need to up our game. The old tools simply aren’t good enough anymore.

Serious brain. Serious work. Serious insight.

@LSREnergy

PS: Please repost this recommendation. The new X algo only really gets things moving with a bit of help from the crowd.

[Hidden Monopolies @HiddenMonopoly]

Interesting !

High gross margins and a low volatility in gross margins may point to industries with high pricing power.

[Casper Ruud @CasperRuud98]

Is this the craziest statistic of any sport right now?
Would love to hear other crazy stats!

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

MAP OF THE DAY: Overnight, Iranian media have announced two alternative routes for he Strait of Hormuz to avoid "the presence of various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone."

The new Traffic Separation Scheme runs north of the old ones, and into Iranian waters.

[Jean-Michel Glachant @JMGlachant]

Un coup d’éclat du travail de prospective à la ⁦@CRE_energie⁩

« Tour d’horizon de la transition énergétique dans les territoires
et propositions d’accélération »

Dirigé par ⁦@JoelGiraud05⁩ et Olivier Loiseau👏

Rapport de Sébastien Ferrari 👏 https://t.co/G8X0nSAsEo

[Anna Hubert 🇪🇺 @AnnaHbrt]

👀👀
The Commission is waiting until 23 December to amend the ETS State Aid Guidelines for energy-intensive industries...

...If I were trying to hide something, I couldn’t think of a better way to do it.
https://t.co/RFF53b4QvL

[Montel News @montelnews]

Around 60%, or about 50bcm, of gas demand lost in Europe between 2021-2025 will probably never return as power-intensive firms in the steel, chemicals and other sectors have relocated outside the bloc, a TotalEnergies executive said on Tuesday. https://t.co/Ery3G3FkPt

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Le prix de gros pour l'électricité en 2026 en France baisse à 53€/MWh.
Une bonne occasion de rappeler que la France est en surcapacité de production bas carbone. Exports et subventions maintiennent les actifs de production en vie

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

L’électricité française est devenue :
❌ Non abondante
❌ Non bon marché
❌ Non souveraine

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: The coming LNG supply wave is here — Would there be enough demand? At what price?

LNG demand is threatened by a pincer movement involving, ironically, the two old and new sources it’s supposed to bridge: coal and solar.

My column: https://t.co/iQy19WHbG5

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné on solar / wind M&A:

"We have almost all what we need – it is not a priority"

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Dans l'énergie le "quoiqu'il en coute" doit être remplacé par un "combien ça coute" systématique.
Ma tribune avec @CcilMaisonneuve dans les Echos

[FT Energy @ftenergy]

EU faces extra €10bn bill to refill gas stores after cold winter https://t.co/XZVjtkAMBb

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Le courrier de RTE excite les esprits. Certains ont la mémoire courte. Que celui qui n'a aucune responsabilité dans la situation jette la première pierre
Thread rappel de la séquence :

[Anna Hubert 🇪🇺 @AnnaHbrt]

At the EU Council, the 🇵🇱 Presidency is proposing to abolish the 1 November deadline for filling gas stocks to 90%.

The Presidency's first attempt at a compromise to amend (and make more flexible) the prolongation of the gas storage regulation 👇
https://t.co/ffzRjuq0oA

[Wingchunlion @retailLNG]

The reasons to go spot in LNG procurement (in the order of importance): (1) disappearing baseload; (2) rapidly evolving energy mix; (3) lowering cost of alternatives like solar and heat pumps (4) perceived oversupply. It is not a contest of TTF vs oil indexaction - that is pump and dump by the financial press - the real contest is whether you buy one cargo at a time in rapidly changing circumstances. @SStapczynski @ira_joseph @asim

[Kpler @Kpler]

Tariffs in action: How China’s LNG imports are changing

China’s new 15% #tariff on US LNG is already shifting global trade flows. No US LNG is currently en route to China, and a mid-February cargo was redirected to Bangladesh.

Kpler Insight expects US LNG originally destined for #China to pivot to Europe, given its price advantage.

In 2024, Chinese players re-sold 0.93 Mt of US #LNG to Europe. With tariffs in place and new SPAs with Venture Global commencing, resales could quadruple to over 4 Mt in 2025.

See the infographic for a closer look at how China’s LNG trade is evolving.

#kpler

[Tom Marzec-Manser @tmarzecmanser]

#Gazprom to cut off #OMV #natgas from 16-Nov!
#ONGT #LNG #TTF
Sooner than expected! 😬

[💥Energy Flux💥 @EnergyFluxNews]

𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐚𝐥𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐞

The cost of LNG shipping crashed this year, and the silence around it is deafening.

The slump went unreported outside of niche trade circles, and was generally dismissed as a rational response to a wave of newbuild vessels entering service.

But there’s more to it than that. The cost of shipping is the ‘canary in the coalmine’ for the LNG industry.

Plummeting rates signal softening demand, oversupply, and broader structural challenges facing the LNG sector as it struggles to maintain its position in the global energy mix.

More 👉https://t.co/nXyAoNoDqL

CC: @ira_joseph @lngglobal @Global_LNG @JavierBlas @HeYiyong @gomatsuo @German_Analyst @TomH_Analyst @moldvayendre @Belyiand @BurggrabenH @degiorgiod @RichardMeyerDC @Energy_Tidbits @JKempEnergy @Smarter_Markets @OKalleklev

#LNG #natgas #energy #energymarkets #energytransition #TTF #JKM #naturalgas