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Data driven Sports analysis. By @jamesday87

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@SquiggleAFL @HAH_Binnie @informedstats @SnooThinks Ok I think things up updated. Let me know if it's not working

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@SquiggleAFL @HAH_Binnie @informedstats @SnooThinks Dusting off the model and firing it up now 🤞

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@databyjosh @andrew_whelan Ta mate. Although I think @MatterOfStats will tear up my modelling membership if I accept any kind of award for winning on Tips

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@SquiggleAFL Checking if this is still causing issues? I think things should be updated and live but let me know if something is going wrong https://t.co/ZM72u1mNCY

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@MatterOfStats @SquiggleAFL Great motivation to overhaul my model this off-season!

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@MatterOfStats Cold Sims are way easier to program and run so much faster if you do it right. Please find some evidence that they are better. I'm happy to ignore any evidence to the contrary until you do!

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@SquiggleAFL @daveslutzkin Thanks for pointing this out - found a bug where the Gabba was listed as being in Victoria so the Lions got a penalty for playing interstate! Should be fixed for this week and hopefully explains most of my models poor performance this year!

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@NickWelch51 I’m still unconvinced by season sims this early in the year (cc @MatterOfStats) BUT this round has caused some wild fluctuations in mine and Sydney now a 45% chance of top 4 and projected 2nd most wins https://t.co/MuYgSI7Q4b

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@MatterOfStats @GRAFTRatings @SquiggleAFL This
https://t.co/eNDpQndXMx

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@MatterOfStats @GRAFTRatings @plusSixOneblog @SquiggleAFL The Fourcasters ?

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@MatterOfStats @GRAFTRatings @SquiggleAFL The quality of forecasters coming through suggests that (at least for me) this streak might be coming to an end pretty soon. I think we need an official name before that happens so we can always look back on that as a feather in our caps!

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Chrisscottshocked.gif #AFLCatsLions

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@SquiggleAFL Hmm any info here? Data should be there but finals might be messing with things. I’ll have a look later this arv

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@MatterOfStats The 2012 Hawks were arguably more dominant than in any of their three-peat years that followed

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Full disclosure - I’m a lifelong Hawks fan and lived in Brisbane for 10 years with fond memories of playing footy in Queensland

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Objective ranking of who I would like to see win the #AFL premiership, using a GUT based model

Brisbane
St Kilda
Bulldogs
West Coast
Power
Richmond
Collingwood
Geelong

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@thehulksheroes Thanks mate. It’s using an R package called {reactable}. It does require some HTML to get it looking like it does but I just used their examples and modified from there https://t.co/XnPNGoni81

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@FMI_TL @fuzzybluerain And thanks @FMI_TL @The_FMI for all the hard work!

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@FMI_TL @fuzzybluerain Congrats @fuzzybluerain - well deserved!

[Tony Corke @MatterOfStats]

Fellow @FMI_TL ers, please join me in offering huge thanks to FootyMaths for forging on and putting in all those hours despite the especially trying circumstances in this weirdest of years.

Not even a global pandemic could stop this competition.

Hip hip ...

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@thejohnholden @SquiggleAFL I guess technically Win Probability is my only output which I then map to predicted margin

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AFL Wonk Tweeps on @SquiggleAFL (or others!) who only produce estimated Margins, how do you calculate ladder percentage? I just use `average margin` as a kind of surrogate but that falls down towards the end of the season where percentage matters