protechtor

Crypto trader/investor since 2014, $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $CRV technical analysis. No investment advice. Educate and help navigate. Occasionally found in 🐰 holes.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@JoshuaBarzon Corn grows here

[protechtor @protechtor]

This chart shows it has held its value relative to BTC since 2016… with periods during bull markets of outperformance… less extreme in each cycle so far.

In 2023/24 it show a loss of relative value vs BTC (even though both gained value vs USD/fiat… no shown). In 2025 (still part of bull market), it shows a relative outperformance again, but less so than prior bull cycles.

What we see is an initial run up of extreme outperformance, followed by a series of waves of higher lows and lower highs of relative performance.

The flatter the chart is, the more it mirrors BTCs price.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@rippledik Be nice, no name calling if you disagree.

[protechtor @protechtor]

A lot of bearish sentiment in Crypto simply comes from not looking at log charts.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@CredibleCrypto Excellent write up. Thanks 🙏

[protechtor @protechtor]

@GVOCollective The plan is the easiest part. The execution is always the challenge.

[protechtor @protechtor]

$BTC long term view of the chart below.

Late summer/early fall with October the ideal time to find the low.

Between now and then, expect extreme bearishness (RSI, Fear & Greed meter/sentiment, etc.) to move towards apathy.

The next 3 months will be the quarter of discontent.

Set your plan. Define your risk levels. Place your bets. Then go live your life and check in every quarter or so to up your investor IQ and adjust your plan.

[protechtor @protechtor]

Zooming in on $BTC. This has been a map of my expectations for price for a few months now with slight modifications as the counter trend pattern emerged. There is bit more room down into the $53k's right now that should be attractive (ie. liquidity) should the bears have strength to push it there, and/or bulls are too weak to mount a counter (even if short lived). We are in shotgun shooting distance of optimal long term hold DCA territory though imho, should you have conviction in the investment.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@STeRRienTS I follow you for the authentic analysis and opinions btw

[protechtor @protechtor]

@STeRRienTS Truth seeking isn’t the quickest way to get followers my friend. Getting reactions is.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@CryptoMichNL Look at the progression each cycle. Each bear low spends more time below the 200w ma than the last.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@cryptojack Probably just a rectangle, not a triangle.

[protechtor @protechtor]

I haven't asked them. 😉

Seriously though, time-wise, it makes sense based on how long the prior bears have lasted.

Whether this time is shorter or longer, noone knows for sure.

Pretty confident in my ability to find bottoms/entry points when the time comes. My approach has a much stronger track record than tops over two decades (pre crypto into crypto).

The real alpha though is risk management, as all methods are wrong often.

Part of the risk management approach recipe I am following is to not short term trade in crypto except early in cycles after confirmation of trend turns. Ups my success rate and confidence in the trade.

I prefer for the most part to hold assets I have conviction in for the long haul through a cycle, take profits, then reinvest through DCA'ing towards the bottom.

[protechtor @protechtor]

@misterrcrypto It hasn't held every market. Its broken through it the past two bear markets and didn't exist before then (BTC was too new).

[protechtor @protechtor]

I never bought the store-of-value pivot.

When $BTC maxis rebranded it years ago, that narrative solved two problems for them:
https://t.co/h4UhgMiW2w pulled attention off the fact that BTC can’t work as money on chain. The TPS ceiling kills it.
https://t.co/7B4tAe81PP built a moat against the flood of copies coming to dilute the brand, and the liquidity flowing into the new asset class.

BTC never behaved like a store of value. It behaved like a leveraged risk asset, born in the final years of a 40-year disinflation that pinned rates to the floor and flooded the world with cheap money chasing yield.

That tailwind is dead. Rates sit at 3.5 to 3.75% with inflation back up to 3.8%, the hottest since 2023. Markets just abandoned their rate-cut bets and started pricing rates drifting higher and holding restrictive for years. Liquidity is getting scarce and expensive. That’s the regime now.

So the current bear-market take, that “BTC is failing as a store of value because gold is crushing it in exactly the high-inflation, high-debasement world its loudest backers promised it would win,” rests on a premise that was never true.
BTC lagging gold isn’t BTC failing as money. It’s BTC trading exactly like the leveraged risk asset it always was. Gold catches the monetary bid in a sticky-inflation, risk-off tape. BTC, and crypto broadly, trades like a high-beta Nasdaq sector. Always has.

The curtain’s pulled. The wizard is just marketing.

To be clear: I own BTC. I have conviction in it. It has value. But I’m truth-seeking first.

What BTC needs, what every crypto asset needs, is utility at scale.

With the curtain pulled and so many prominent names quietly questioning their own thesis on BTC (and ETH, for different reasons), no wonder this bear feels existential again for the 👑.

Take heart. Narratives reflect far more than they predict. The story at the next top will look as shiny and new as the last, perfectly timed to peak exuberance, built to sell into. Today’s is built to buy.

This regime rewards utility, not cheap debt and yield-chasing.

[protechtor @protechtor]

More than 24 hours until weekly close, but the bullish RSI divergence is on play at the weekly level now.

[protechtor @protechtor]

Most of my crypto timeline right now:

“It’s different this time.”

“No, it’s not different this time.”

[protechtor @protechtor]

Similar to my view on $BTC.

[Kabuki🔴 @kabukistory]

Bitcoin is now hovering at the exact level where EVERY bull trap ends.

Next week, another bearish rejection will send $BTC back to ~$53,000.

$60K → $53K → $47K → $87K → $151K

Next stops:
→ $53K next week
→ $47K by July
→ $151K by January

I called the recent Bitcoin dump publicly, $126k top in October 2025, and even $15k bottom in November 2022.

If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too.

Follow now. I'll call every major move.

[protechtor @protechtor]

Wisdom.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Novice and aspiring market speculators think the magic is found in trade identification.
The "what" and "when" components of trading -- while necessary -- represent only about 5% of a trader's "edge."
Yet aspiring traders spend 80% of their time, energy, hopes and fears on trade identification and the next trade.
The real landmine in trading is self-sabotage. Dealing with human emotions is the battle line that matters.
You want to know yourself, I mean really know yourself -- the good, the bad and the ugly?
Become a trader.
This is why all the trading services who talk about their last trade (made 250% on XYZ) is such an absolute joke.
Trading services who talk about their winners are trading services you must avoid at all costs.
The real enemy in trading is self.
You want to know your biggest enemy to trading success? Well, just look in a mirror. It is you, not what you know or don't know, that keeps you from gaining traction in trading.
After three to five years of experience a person should know what they need to do to be profitable. The challenge is actually doing what you know you must do.
The task is overcoming self.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Local range lows on $XRP have been taken.

Would make some sense for a move to range highs assuming we get some relief across the board but I would be very cautious if/when we get that move because XRP/BTC still sits some 30% above my downside target so I don't quite think this will be the ultimate bottom for $XRP just yet, even if we do see a move back to the local range highs.

Ultimately, think $XRP will find it's way to our HTF demand zone in green one way or another, and that is when I would consider it worth buying assuming XRP/BTC has also hit my target zone by that time.

Keep in mind this correction is in the context of correcting our impulsive move that took us from .50 to around $3.60 so while this looks scary its a natural result of such a quick 7x move that now needs to be "digested".