Peter Waring

Co-host of Deepest Dive: The Search for MH370 | Consultant at @UNDPPA & @RidgewayInfo | Antipodean 🇦🇺

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

After almost three years, I’m thrilled to announce the release of the Audible podcast, Deepest Dive: The Search for #MH370. Thanks to everyone at @WhistledownProd and @Audible_AU. And the incomparable Jana Wendt, my co-host. https://t.co/A8N8k9GMQ8

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@LabratSR Thanks again to Kevin and co for the updates. Personally, I think it's remarkable how proactive OI has been,and how much they've achieved

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@AustinJamesCoo1 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill Olivier Ferrante, the SG of BEA and the lead investigator for AF447 said: "the reverse drift analysis that was done for MH370 was from too far away, and I would say that all is shows is that it's in the right ocean... to pinpoint the exact location. I wouldn't trust those results

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@AustinJamesCoo1 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill If OI are willing to look elsewhere, beyond 15k (which I think is possible), then they may find it...I hope so. There was once a near consensus on a rapid descent at the 6th arc - that is no longer the case - and I feel eventually the same will happen with the drift analysis

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@AustinJamesCoo1 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill Big question. I have long advocated searching further south and wider of the arc. I have minimal faith in drift analysis, especially with such inadequate data. I have also long believed in a controlled ditch and, based on proposed search area, the thinking on this has changed

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@HDTBill I think that is a very likely possibility. In fact, it's Simon Hardy's scenario. The question becomes, do you think it more or less likely that the perpetrator would have flown the aircraft as far as possible, in which case we're looking at -38

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@HDTBill @Ventus_45 I've asked enough savvy pilots to know they don't. And there was less online information about it pre disappearance. We didn't even know what it was capable of at the ATSB (we asked and got a non-response)

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@HDTBill @Ventus_45 Yes - which means a controlled ditch. I worry that such a path is inside the known range of the JORN (over the horizon radar). Any pilot worth his salt and who planned this adequately would have know the radar range arcs. But as I said, the datum we have is the 7th arc...

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@Ventus_45 @HDTBill An excellent question...all of it. We factored in the full width before adding the simulator loss of control work...Here's a graphic:

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@Ventus_45 @HDTBill I think the pilot remained at the controls until the end. I've thought that for a long time (there were a few ATSB dissenters). BUT search 101 requires that you start at a datum and move outwards. All we had was the 7th arc and so I think we did the best with what little we had

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@LabratSR @AustinJamesCoo1 @BigOceanData I guess it depends on whether they're worried about the weather window. Which explains why they've started in the southern part of the search area - get it done first. Based on the experience of 2014-18 the northern part (above -35) should be okay, at least for another swing...

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@HDTBill There's so much to unpack. I was with the ATSB search team in 2014-2015 and what was believed (although questioned by myself and a few others) was that MH370 was taken deliberately but that the pilot ended his own life between the top of Sumatra and the end of flight. Thanks Bill

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@RadiantPhysics @Take7_Reserved @bytesaber_ @khunpleb @TheRagingElk @LattimerKa22100 @StangV2_0 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Yeah that's right. Quite an incredible piece of work, really

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@HDTBill All depends on the drift analysis. Byron believed in 38 degrees because it fits best with how a B777 would be flown. In other words, the 188T course matches the arcs. But he's wrong - no one in the Aust gov ever thought it was anything other than a deliberate act by the captain

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@Take7_Reserved @RadiantPhysics @bytesaber_ @khunpleb @TheRagingElk @LattimerKa22100 @StangV2_0 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Importantly, the BEA also engaged a US based company, Metron, to undertake a Bayesian analysis which de-weighted the drift analysis prior. They found the debris field quickly after that https://t.co/6OD1pnsDlV

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@LabratSR @TheRagingElk @BigOceanData Thanks Kevin for all you're doing! It's great work

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@Edward_767 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Big question! It's worth remembering that in 2018 the initial area was 25k and they ended up doing over 100. So, I think there's a good chance OI expand elsewhere if needed. The fact that they're currently doing what appears to be prelim work without a contract is a positive sign

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@MystOddities @elizanow1 @AustinJamesCoo1 @370Location A return to first principles is needed. Starting with the Bayesian model and the inflated claims of certainty. Those of us that have been involved since 2014 have seen this play out and the simple truth is that there is insufficient data. I hope they succeed but I have doubts

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@RadiantPhysics @benjohn65 @YouTube Precisely my thought, Victor. Let's see the peer reviewed paper!

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@MystOddities This brings back some memories - there was about 8 hours between the high AUV pass and the low pass - we thought we'd found it and were getting press releases ready etc! But shows you how accurate side scan sonar can be - some of those pieces of coal are no bigger than a fist!

[Peter Waring @pwar82]

@thebigtwoseven @RadiantPhysics It is a new(ish) phenomenon - certainly when the search begun there were very few vessels in the area (all of which were contacted). It is, strangely, the result of the search, and the public release of the bathymetric data. Fishing vessels like to fish on a known bottom...