pystolp

#Bitcoin | Machine Learning Researcher

[Mike McDonald @MikeMcDonald89]

@snowbox_yo I gotta give it a re-read

[pystolp @pystolp]

@BitMEXResearch Did you correct Fidelity numbers for 29 Jan, but not for Total for 29 Jan? The numbers don't add up.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@TaprootWizards @udiWertheimer @realizingerin TULIP TAKEOVER 🌷🧙‍♂️

[pystolp @pystolp]

@TaprootWizards resting wizard face

[pystolp @pystolp]

@TaprootWizards Wizard costume ordered, my body is ready!

[pystolp @pystolp]

@jimmyvs24 @glassnode Looks like you could have said the same thing back at the ATH.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@FatManTerra Likely dumped quite a bit more in $ terms, that is the current value of the missing BTC.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@GhostofMTC Are you getting that from the revenue column? Don't think that has anything to do with how much he has tied up.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@_Checkmatey_ @ercwl @art_pleb @udiWertheimer Weren't you trying to apply S2F to Decred in 2019-2020🙄

https://t.co/wosJVPNjUr

https://t.co/YArnXJLiQQ

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

The #Decred S2F model developed in Phase 1 proposal provides an indicative 'fair value model' for $DCR.

Taking the ratio with Price gives us an indication of large deviations from the mean.

Currently, Price is 1.5 standard deviations from the model, a zone of mean reversion.
4/

[pystolp @pystolp]

@TarasBob @MikeMcDonald89 Those companies have many orders of magnitude more active users (not to mention things like IP). Not at all comparable. Plus, switching costs for FB is high, but pretty much non-existent for L1s that apps run on, they are just under the hood rails after all.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@Mepslol @MikeMcDonald89 @TarasBob Congratulations, you answered your own question. Unlike ETH, the value proposition of BTC is not so much about the apps built on it.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@ercwl @bccponzi @RegularBore Adam Back has got to be on that Mt. Rushmore.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@tokenstate First 3 BTC halving decreased emissions from 28% to <2%, ETH merge is 4% to 0.4%. Sure both decrease emissions by ~90%, but you think those are the same? There is a reason BTC halving have diminishing effects. If ETH decreases to 0% instead, is that an infinite halving?

[pystolp @pystolp]

@matthuang Wasn't this done a few years ago with Bitcoin/Lightning at Satoshi's Place?

[pystolp @pystolp]

@TwonXBT @gametheorizing Jokes aside, you can back it out with the numbers he is using: 386k / (1.08^3) = 306k in today's dollars.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@iwearahoodie @BarrySilbert Bc BTC is fungible, price discrepancies can be arbed away, even across a fractured marketplace. You can’t do that so easily with NFTs, price discovery would be deterred.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@_Checkmatey_ @glassnode I went through it as well! We were more like at 7.5k there.

Regardless, don't think most would agree that further >50% drawdown and *1 year* just for price to get back to "late bear" *start* point = later part of bear cycle.

The pain hadn't even started at that point for me.

[pystolp @pystolp]

@_Checkmatey_ @glassnode Not sure if I would say most damage was already done. There was still another >50% drawdown to come, (without a quick bounce back) and a full year for price to recover to the "late" bear entry point. Those were brutal times!

[pystolp @pystolp]

@_Checkmatey_ @glassnode Months afterwards? We have to go based off of when it enters the zone, May 2018.