Pytho LLC

Our training programs, tools & expertise in predictive analytics future-proof your organization. @Superforecastr & @PavelDAtanasov distill the wisdom of crowds.

[Pytho LLC @pytho_io]

Can collective human intelligence outpredict algorithms? @pytho_io won @NSF funding to test our @HumanForests method against random forest machine models in predicting cancer drug success #HumanForests #HumanVsMachine #AI #machinelearning
https://t.co/O7DIATuXnm

[Dan Goldstein @dggoldst]

GPT and the Linda Problem.

[Michael Mauboussin @mjmauboussin]

Attention valuation fans: we have a new report out today on return on invested capital (ROIC). It updates and extends work from 2014.
https://t.co/BH9XSScZcp

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

With a dedication to all members of the forecasting community (forecasters from @Metaculus, @INFERpub, @GJ_Open, @superforecaster, @pytho_io, @Hypermind_com and others) and with special thanks to @PTetlock @bamellers @dgardner, @AnthonyNAguirre and all who made it possible.

[Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe]

God, I can’t believe what a strategic genius Putin is.

[Center for Adaptive Rationality (MPIB, Berlin) @arc_mpib]

Thursday (15:00 CET), Pavel Atanasov (@PavelDAtanasov) presents his work on “Skill Spotting and Elicitation Systems in Crowd Prediction”

DM if you’d like to join!

@mpib_berlin @HumanForests
@pytho_io

🧵More info below!

[NATO @NATO]

🇫🇷 French troops from the #NATO Response Force (NRF) have been deployed to #Romania 🇷🇴 in response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of #Ukraine 🇺🇦

[ABC News @ABC]

Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador directly addressed his Russian counterpart at conclusion of U.N. Security Council meeting: “There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell, Ambassador.” https://t.co/iqOY0jHTUu

[Pytho LLC @pytho_io]

Wordle 233 6/6

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[Superforecastr @Superforecastr]

Thanks @AmardeepSParmar for the interview in today's @entrehandbook! We really covered a lot of ground: #strategic foresight applied to #DigitalTransformation, #decision-making processes and the birth of #DigitalMedia. Whew! https://t.co/kzOuPwaZIL

[Superforecastr @Superforecastr]

We at @pytho_io love the name check for our @HumanForests research in @CrowdMoneyGG newsletter today! Check them out!

[Pavel Atanasov @PavelDAtanasov]

When two experts make opposing arguments, it is hard to decide whom to trust. The Fed economists will do their own research, but for non-specialist investors, picking a side based on incomplete information is more likely. That's where track-record data would come in handy.

[Pavel Atanasov @PavelDAtanasov]

"Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes" by @VSatopaa
https://t.co/XsCto8JiAw

[Pavel Atanasov @PavelDAtanasov]

"The observed lower variability, lack of speeding up, smoother individual dynamics, and leader-less inter-personal coordination [in drum circles] indicated that stability increased as group size increased, a sort of temporal wisdom of crowds."
https://t.co/d2kdSsw9LO

[Pytho LLC @pytho_io]

💥LAUNCHING TODAY!💥 Human Forest Tournament #2 goes live at NOON EST, but you can still sign up @ https://t.co/U3mo3Mi1Zw to join the hundreds of forecasters competing to beat a top machine model! Help us advance science & maybe earn prizes up to $1500! #datascience #forecasting

[Pytho LLC @pytho_io]

Experience reference class forecasting & outpredict machine models! Our @NSF -funded research goes live TODAY & you can still sign up @ https://t.co/iFCBHfbqc4 to advance solutions to the problem made notable by #Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky #science #forecasting

[Alliance for Decision Education @AllDecisionEd]

.@pytho_io is launching Phase 2 of the @HumanForests experiment, a forecasting competition. The experiment can help you practice gathering information, thinking probabilistically, updating your beliefs, and making predictions, all key decision skills. @NSF https://t.co/QJECxJk8gJ

[Steve Stewart-Williams @SteveStuWill]

15 Data Fallacies and How to Avoid Them https://t.co/vcromKLREq

[Pytho LLC @pytho_io]

Countdown! I'm excited to be conducting an exclusive forecasting tournament for Clarim Media Techonomy Media + Worth Media, culminating next week in an exciting presentation/post-mortem. So far, Afghanistan's fall & oil prices have challenged our top participants. #forecasting

[Pytho LLC @pytho_io]

Friends: VOTE here: https://t.co/wOglMWaX4R to help us bring our work on how human intelligence beat machine models in predicting #COVID drug trials. VOTE for our #SXSW2022 Panel Picker session about our @NSF Human Forests work to help us win a slot! #Prediction #MachineLearning