HERE IS A LIST OF MY RECOMMENDED DOCUMENTARIES:
911 in Plane Site
2000 Mules
Above Majestic
America: Freedom to Fascism
Awake: The Life of Yogananda (2014)
Beyond Treason
COVIDLAND
Dark Secrets: Inside Bohemian Grove
Died Suddenly
Endgame: Blueprint for Global Enslavement
Esoteric Agenda
Everything You Know is Wrong
Fabled Enemies
The Fall Of The Cabal
The Fluoride Deception
Food, Inc.
The Great Global Warming Swindle
Hoaxed
I Am (2010)
Inner Worlds, Outer Worlds (2012)
Invisible Empire
The Light Bulb Conspiracy
Loose Change
Money as Debt 1-3
The Money Masters
A Noble Lie: Oklahoma City 1995
Out of Shadows
Police State IV: The Rise of FEMA
Resonance: Beings of Frequency
The Revelation of the Pyramids
RUN FROM THE CURE: The Rick Simpson Story
Samsara (2011)
Secret Mysteries of America's Beginnings 1-3
State of Mind: The Psychology of Control Terrorstorm
The Secret (2006)
The Underground: The Phil Schneider Story
Thrive: What on Earth Will it Take?
Trace Amounts
Vaxxed
What in the World Are They Spraying?
What Is a Woman?
The World According to Monsanto
Zeitgeist
Zero Point Volume 1-4
@Ledger@DonjonLedger U guys should really consider putting some type of tamper-evident seals on ur @ledger wallets manufactured in Vietnam because hackers in Vietnam are opening ur wallets & installing extra hardware inside the devices to steal people's coins, I told @DonjonLedger about this already.
Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon?
Let me tell you.
Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen.
And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards.
Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime.
On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000.
By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000.
Price change? Basically ZERO.
But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened.
Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%.
Read that again.
Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher.
Why?
Because OGs were selling.
And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins.
The data is insane.
During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from:
2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically.
5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile.
10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile.
Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing.
2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed.
The highest calendar-year total in the dataset.
Even higher than 2017.
And 58% higher than 2021.
Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get:
11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed.
That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle.
And 65% more than 2020–2021.
This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base.
At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization.
By November 2025? 13.2%.
And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%.
That's the changing of the guard.
Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000.
The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change.
But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically.
The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize.
The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis.
You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller...
...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin.
Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership.
You have RECAPITALIZED the network.
Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH.
Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution.
At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233.
Today the realized price is ~$52,645.
So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k...
The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER.
The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived.
And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing.
Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore.
At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap.
Today? 59.2%.
Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months.
The hot money is seasoning.
The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort.
And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs.
On a trailing 180-day basis:
2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%.
3+ year: down ~69%.
5+ year: down ~51%.
The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out.
In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity.
Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher.
Price eventually corrected.
The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged.
Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600.
The speculative premium has been annihilated.
At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price.
Today? About 1.19x.
The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis...
AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history.
And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting.
Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized.
If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion...
$200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price.
The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x.
In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity.
You don't even need 2021 insanity.
You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded.
THAT is the setup.
The $100,000 was a massive clearing event.
Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains...
...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices.
Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact.
Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading.
The network has been recapitalized.
And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve.
$62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart.
It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now.
This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced.
And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.
We're close to everybody simply giving up on Bitcoin.
✅ it's been 10 months since we hit the ATH
✅ cold card hack has hit the self custody crowd hard
✅ at power low bottom
✅ wintermute exiting
✅ MARA exiting
✅ all the "action" is in stocks and AI
feels very similar to dec 2022.
The last two times the $DXY broke below 96, #Bitcoin ran from $2,000 to $20,000 within 6 months and ran from $10,000 to $64,000 within 9 months
The DXY is currently sitting at 97
UPDATE: After this post blew up I reached out to him... he lives in Italy with a young family and has a sick yacht.
Told me he's still bullish Bitcoin... so I asked if he had advice for me Bitcoiners.
Told me: "You have to read that Blood of the Bourgeoisie book, SOOO GOOD".
Sau 33 NĂM,
những gì Peter Lynch nói còn 100% GIÁ TRỊ.
Nếu bạn đang cảm thấy đuối vì cố dí theo tất cả mọi xu hướng trên thị trường, những cơn sốt ngắn hạn, những thông tin vĩ mô, lãi suất, M2, M3,...
Đó đều là những thứ kéo chặt chân nhóm nhà đầu tư trung bình khỏi lợi nhuận tốt và lợi nhuận bền vững.
Và nếu bạn quên cái meme "Bell Curve" mình từng kể thì nhà đầu tư trung bình thường là nhóm đu đỉnh (thay vì là người suy nghĩ ít, không biết gì hoặc biết đúng bản chất, biết tới nơi tới chốn).
Nội dung của buổi nói chuyện này xoay quanh về:
• Sai lầm phổ biến khiến bạn mất tiền.
• Các cách để tìm món ngon.
• Cách để không phải là một con bạc.
Save lại buổi master mind 19 phút qua cuộc trò chuyện của Peter Lynch.
Vì nó không phải chỉ để nghe một lần.
(mình có gắn cả phụ đề tiếng Việt)
Anyone who currently holds 2.0 Bitcoin could be holding under 1 Bitcoin in one year from now without gaining any capital. The only thing needed for this is to sell Bitcoin here at $93,000 then pay $18,000 in tax to the government and transaction fees then wait for Q4 2026 when Bitcoin is $168,000.
What is more likely?
Bitcoin at $60,000 or at $168,000?
Maybe $60,000 happens - but it wasn't a good risk adjusted bet to sell Bitcoin for USD.