radogruden

[radogruden @radogrudev]

"I don't ever give up. I'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated. For my part, I will never give up, and I mean never." Elon Musk

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978)

“For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981)

“We must bring the Federal budget deficit under control.” - George H.W. Bush (1989)

“We must put our fiscal house in order.” - Bill Clinton (1993)

“We can pay down a large portion of the national debt.” - George W. Bush (2001)

“Families across the country are tightening their belts … the federal government should do the same.” - Barack Obama (2010)

“We will start to balance our budget and pay down our debt.” - Donald Trump (2016)

“My plan will reduce the deficit.” - Joe Biden (2022)

“We will balance the federal budget.” - Donald Trump (2024)

[Patrick Bet-David @patrickbetdavid]

The people who become difficult to break usually went through seasons where they had no one to lean on but themselves.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.

Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years.

Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control.

The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money.

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

Obviously, North Korea just hasn’t tried Marxism *enough*

[Genius Thinking @GeniusGTX]

In 1969, 5 engines produced 7.5 million pounds of thrust.

Enough to reach the Moon.

SpaceX just fired 33 engine at once. 16.7 million pounds. More than double every Apollo launch.

Here's why this rewrites space travel:

Saturn V flew 13 times. Every booster sank to the ocean floor. Built to be thrown away.

Super Heavy V3 produces double that thrust. And it's designed to come home.

SpaceX catches returning boosters mid-air with mechanical arms bolted to the launch tower. No parachutes. No ocean recovery.

Each Raptor 3 engine generates 280 tons of force. 17% more than its predecessor. Thirty-three of them form the most powerful propulsion system ever assembled.

Musk confirmed V3's maiden orbital test is "4 to 6 weeks" away.

NASA spent $23 billion building SLS. Half the thrust. Roughly 10x the cost per launch.

The agency that reached the Moon threw away the rocket. SpaceX catches theirs with chopsticks.

The vehicle that reaches Mars won't be the most expensive. It'll be the one designed to fly again.

If you're new here, @GeniusGTX is a gallery for the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. Follow along for more similar content.

I made a free toolkit breaking down 100+ mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. 5,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab your free copy here: https://t.co/u2q1uUm9vD

— SpaceX, X | Data: SpaceX, NASA

[Radhakishan Jat @rkjat65]

Venezuelan oil is flowing to the US for the first time in years! 🛢️ 🇺🇸

Where does this money go?

With a tanker at the Mississippi coast and imports hitting 1M barrels/day, will this finally end high gas prices, or is the Iran war masking the gains? ⛽️

[Cynical Publius @CynicalPublius]

This is the best 5 minutes and 50 seconds I have spent in quite a long time. I encourage anyone and everyone to watch.

The amazing thing is that ALL OF IT has been in plain sight for a very long time, yet very few people have seen it or are seeing it.

It's the genius of Trump. He intentionally creates a bombastic, almost clownish facade that purposely obscures his exquisite grasp and attainment of strategic goals.

Most people fall into Trump's trap--but not this British commentator. He lays bare exactly what America's geopolitical strategy is, but the thing is--it's always been bare and always been obvious and always been in plain sight.

You just had to see past the deception plan.

[Evan Luthra @EvanLuthra]

THIS IS CRAZYY!!!!🤯

A guy just built a $1.8 billion company with two employees. Him and his brother. Using AI.

Matthew Gallagher started Medvi from his house in Los Angeles. Spent $20,000 and two months. AI wrote the code. AI made the website. AI made the ads. AI handled customer service.

First month. 300 customers. Second month. 1,000 more. First full year. $401 million in sales. This year on track for $1.8 billion.

His only hire? His younger brother. That's the entire company.

The New York Times verified the numbers. $65 million profit last year. More than $3 million coming in every single day.

Now compare this. Hims & Hers sells weight loss drugs online. 2,442 employees. $2.4 billion revenue. 5.5% profit margin. This guy is doing nearly the same with two people and triple the margins.

He grew up living in motels and cars. Taught himself to code on a laptop his uncle gave him. Sold samurai swords on eBay as a teenager. Didn't finish college. Moved to LA to become an actor.

Now he's running the fastest growing company nobody has heard of.

When his website broke during a hike he had to sprint home because there was nobody else to fix it. Lost 200 customers in one hour. That's the reality of a two person company doing $1.8 billion.

A VC told him don't raise money. He listened. Zero outside funding. He owns 100% of it.

Two brothers. $20,000. A laptop. And every AI tool they could get their hands on. That's all it took.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The island play might be Trump's only clean exit...

The USS Tripoli is a week away with 2,200 Marines and F-35Bs.

Three islands are reportedly in play.

Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's oil exports. Seize it and you hold Tehran's revenue hostage without wrecking global markets.

Qeshm Island sits at the mouth of Hormuz with tunnels packed with fast-attack boats and missiles.

Take it and you control the chokepoint itself.

Hormuz Island hosts the small naval craft harassing shipping. Clear it and tankers can move again.

None of them are technically Iranian mainland, which lets Trump claim "no boots on the ground in Iran" while Marines plant flags offshore.

And the deeper play: every barrel of Iranian crude bound for China passes through these waters.

Control the islands, control Beijing's energy supply.

No tariff could ever match that leverage.

Source: WSJ @x4rius

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. hit over 90 targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, with B-2 stealth bombers flying 12,000-nautical-mile round trips from Missouri and Tomahawk missiles skimming the Gulf at Mach 0.74.

They obliterated bunkers, radar stations, runways, fast-attack boats, and defenses, but left the actual $53 billion oil terminals and loading infrastructure completely untouched.

Source: Navy Decoded

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇷 Iran's likely next Supreme Leader preaches resistance against the West. Here's how he lives:

-$40M mansion on London's Billionaire's Row
-$300M in gold and diamonds
-Swiss bank accounts
-Banks in UAE, Syria, Venezuela and Africa
-Private jet, helicopter, fleet of Mercedes
-Moved $328M to Dubai via crypto in January alone

His wealth comes from taxing Iranian oil sold to China and India while Iranian civilians suffer under the sanctions he helps perpetuate.

Source: Daily Mail

[Oversight Committee @GOPoversight]

WATCH: President Clinton calls out Democrats for selective questions & says twice that President Trump is clear of wrongdoing.

"Since there was no follow-up question ... he never said anything to me to make me think he was involved in anything improper with regard to Epstein."

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇱 HOW THE U.S. AND ISRAEL PULLED OFF THE MOST COORDINATED STRIKE IN MODERN WARFARE

The entire operation hinged on one concept: "time on target."

Every cruise missile, guided bomb, and stealth fighter was timed to hit Tehran, Karaj, Qom, Kermanshah, and Isfahan at the exact same second.

Before a single jet crossed Iranian airspace, electronic warfare flooded enemy radar with fake data while hundreds of decoy drones mimicked incoming fighter squadrons.

Iranian operators panicked chasing ghosts.

Meanwhile, F-35s and F-22s slipped through completely invisible.

Tomahawks carved the corridors.

B-2s crushed the bunkers.

F-15s hunted mobile launchers in valleys.

Two carrier groups launched jets every 30 seconds.

By sunrise, Iran's entire defense network was erased.

Source: AiTelly on YT

[WOLF Trading @WOLF_TradingX]

The people you surround yourself with is important

[Kris Patel 🇺🇸 @KrisPatel99]

$NVDA

What price would you re-enter?

For me …

$175… interested and might start buying again

$165… ok it’s time to sell some things to buy

$155… time to get a second job to buy

$145… hello, Wellsfargo, what rate did you say I could get for a home equity loan?

$135… hello, Big Tony, I know the vig and the whole broken legs thing… how much can I get?

$125… hello Mr. Lawyer, how many years did you say for an armed robbery conviction?

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

Valid question. Here’s the actual data.

THE CAPEX NUMBERS

2024 AI capex (Mag 7 + ORCL): ~$230B
2025 AI capex: ~$350B (projected)
2026 AI capex: ~$500B+ (guidance)

Yes, it’s accelerating. Yes, it’s massive.

BUT IS IT “CONSUMING ALL CASH FLOW”?

Let’s check:

MSFT:

- 2025 capex: ~$80B
- 2025 operating cash flow: ~$120B
- FCF after capex: Still positive

GOOG:

- 2025 capex: ~$75B
- 2025 operating cash flow: ~$110B
- FCF after capex: Still positive

META:

- 2025 capex: ~$65B
- 2025 operating cash flow: ~$85B
- FCF after capex: Still positive

AMZN:

- 2025 capex: ~$100B
- 2025 operating cash flow: ~$115B
- FCF after capex: Tight but positive

NVDA:

- 2025 capex: ~$4B
- 2025 operating cash flow: ~$65B
- FCF after capex: Extremely positive (they SELL the shovels)

These companies aren’t bleeding cash. They’re spending more, but revenue is scaling with it.

ON “BORROWING AND FINANCING”

MSFT and GOOG issued debt in 2024-2025. True.

But at what rates? 4-5% on investment-grade paper while generating 25-35% ROIC on AI infrastructure. That’s not desperation financing — that’s capital arbitrage.

Apple has borrowed for years despite holding $150B+ in cash. It’s tax-efficient, not distressed.

ON “ACCOUNTING TRICKS”

The claim: Companies are hiding expenses to protect earnings.

What’s actually happening:

- Extending useful life of servers from 5 to 6 years ( $MSFT, $GOOG, $META )
- This reduces annual depreciation expense
- It’s disclosed in filings, not hidden
- Auditors sign off on it

Is it aggressive? Arguably. Is it “sinister”? It’s the same accounting every capex-heavy industry uses. Airlines, utilities, and telecom have done this for decades.

The better question: Are these servers actually lasting longer? NVIDIA’s H100/B100 architecture suggests yes — inference workloads are less punishing than training.

“WHEN DOES IT END?”

It doesn’t “end.” It plateaus.

The build phase (2023-2027): Massive capex to create capacity
The harvest phase (2028+): Revenue scales on built infrastructure, capex moderates as % of revenue

This is identical to:

- AWS 2006-2015 (massive build, now cash machine)
- Cloud broadly 2010-2020 (same pattern)
- Fiber buildout 1996-2001 (overbuilt, but survivors won for 20 years)

The question isn’t “when does spending end?”

The question is: “Does revenue follow the capex?”

Right now, MSFT Azure AI revenue +150% YoY. GOOG Cloud AI +100% YoY. META ad efficiency gains funding the spend. NVDA can’t make chips fast enough.

THE HONEST RISK

Burry’s core concern — that this is misallocated capital chasing a bubble — is worth tracking.

Signs it’s working:

- AI revenue growing faster than capex
- Inference costs dropping 10x in 18 months
- Enterprise adoption accelerating

Signs to watch:

- If AI revenue growth decelerates while capex stays elevated
- If depreciation extensions become more aggressive
- If FCF goes negative for multiple quarters

Right now, the data supports “investment cycle” not “malinvestment.”

But Burry’s been early before. Worth monitoring, not dismissing.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸 The FCC just gave Tesla the green light to use Ultra-Wideband for wireless charging on the Cybercab.

Normally UWB has to be handheld, but Tesla’s fixed ground pad can sit outside, so they needed a special waiver.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S–Iran showdown plan is way wilder than anyone realizes

If Qatar and Saudi slam the door on a U.S strike, Washington just shrugs and goes, “Cool, we’ll hit Iran from Europe then.”

That’s the real play: a 2,000-mile aerial marathon powered by an armada of KC-135 tankers, literal flying gas stations that keep F-35s and F-16s alive long enough to punch into Iran and make it back.

Meanwhile, the Navy rolls in with the USS Gerald R. Ford, a floating city that can launch jets like a machine gun thanks to its electromagnetic catapult.

Destroyers fire off Tomahawks to blind Iran’s radars, B-2s ghost in from Missouri, and suddenly the lack of Middle East bases doesn’t matter one bit.

Diplomacy might happen. But the strike plan?

Already built. Already moving. Already terrifying.

Source: AiTelly