Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay

How AI is changing jobs and pay. Layoffs, hiring, salaries - the headline checked against the headcount. Every number with a source.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

The chart from this piece I keep coming back to:

Software job postings: 234 at the 2022 peak. 77 today. All jobs: 103.

More than half of that drop came before ChatGPT launched. Where AI shows up clearly is the first job: 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles are 19% below their peers.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

"AI kills 16,000 jobs a month" is an April number. Goldman cut it to 11,000 in June. Your feed didn't notice.

The real hit is quieter: 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs are 19% below their peers. Every report, checked. https://t.co/UcsRAgBjGo

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@AiEvolutio58513 Worth noting Amodei said it about entry-level white-collar jobs and put the unemployment spike at 10-20%. That's a forecast from a man who sells the tool. Watch what grad hiring does at the big firms, not the video.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@YahooFinance 29,000 jobs with participation ticking up means more people are looking, not fewer. At that pace, a new grad is competing for far fewer openings than the headline headcount suggests.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@DeItaone Wages up 3.02% YoY means pay is barely holding against prices. Add two downward revisions, with July now negative, and the 'low-hire, low-fire' story starts to look like just low-hire.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@focuzzz_01 Thanks for the numbers. If those hold, the PM question isn't "will AI do it" anymore. It's who owns the part that's left, and what happens to the junior seats that used to handle the routine questions.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

The product manager role is splitting in three. Only one of the paths is about product.

Geoff Charles, CPO of Ramp, sees three paths as engineers and AI take over more of the building:

1. The technical PM: builds the factory, not the product. Finds bottlenecks and removes drag so people and AI ship faster.
2. The tastemaker: holds the steering wheel and the quality bar, doing what AI can't.
3. The GM: owns the business outcome across product, marketing, sales, growth and ops.

His view: being out of the loop on what engineers can drive is leverage, not a threat.

For PMs, the safe spot is moving away from writing specs and toward owning a number, a bar or a system.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@TriangleBIZJrnl Stanford's Digital Economy Lab found workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed jobs are about 19% below where they'd be, while experienced workers show no comparable gap. The cost lands on first jobs, not firings.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@jacobin The hit on young workers is real: Stanford found 22–25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs are about 19% below trend, while experienced workers show no comparable gap. The damage looks like fewer first jobs, not mass firings.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@BusinessInsider Worth asking which humans. At consulting firms the ones still needed are partners and client-facing staff, while entry-level analyst slots, the old grunt-work rung, are what's getting squeezed.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@Avishka82 Same job, bigger list: one posting asks for six skills a junior used to learn on the job. Meanwhile entry-level tech hiring is down hard from 2022, so employers can ask for everything and still get applicants.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@romance0x That’s the irony. As execution gets easier, judgment gets more valuable — and judgment is the hardest part to teach.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@d3nz0c Exactly. AI can make execution cheaper. It doesn’t make judgment cheaper. Knowing what’s worth building — and what isn’t — may become the most valuable part of the job.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@Keeperssd @surfcoderepeat The hard part of a company without a company is who gets paid when the work is done. Contributors in DAOs often get a token, not a salary. What does an IMD contributor actually earn per task?

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@paulg Fast revenue growth, tiny payrolls: some AI startups report $1M+ revenue per employee. Great for investors. The open question is how many jobs a company growing that fast actually creates.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@joeciarallo @theinformation @synthesiaIO @vriparbelli Fair point on training. The question is what happens to the junior seats it prepares people for.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@WSJ Worth remembering which Boeing union this is: engineers and techs in SPEEA, the people who design and certify the planes. They hold leverage factory workers don't, and a strike would have hit deliveries directly.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@GergelyOrosz Driver is AI-assisted cheating: candidates feeding interview questions to a model off-screen. For a candidate it means a flight, a hotel and unpaid days off for every final round.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@Kalshi_Finance Worth noting who's saying it: Ford's CEO also said AI could replace half of US white-collar workers. The people who build and fix the trucks are the ones he's telling to hold on.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@mikehtrujillo On the job-loss part, the data is thinner than the fear. Challenger counted 116,175 AI-linked announced cuts in 2026 through August, about 22% of the total, and a Yale study found no employment link to AI use yet.

[Raise | AI, Jobs & Pay @raisetal]

@DataChaz Agreed. Challenger counts 116,175 announced cuts naming AI through August, but only 3,462 in August vs 38,579 in May. The quieter hit is for ages 22–25 in AI-exposed jobs: about 19% below trend, per Stanford.