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[Ukraine / Україна @Ukraine]

Believe in Ukraine. Stand with Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine!

[Marlene Robertson🇨🇦 @marlene4719]

Trump ~

“Zelensky shouldn’t have started the war with Russia.”

[Joshua Reed Eakle 🗽 @JoshEakle]

Trump is such a genius.

He almost started a trade war, took millions off the stock market, and threatened millions of jobs...

...to get Canada and Mexico to agree to stuff that they already negotiated with Biden.

It's not 4D chess; it's checkers with half the pieces missing.

[Joshua Reed Eakle 🗽 @JoshEakle]

I’ve been reflecting on this over the past day or so, and I’ve come to a realization.

Many of my friends on the center-right who are upset with me for making what I believe to be very obvious observations aren’t necessarily angry at me—they’re angry at the implications of what I’m saying.

The idea that neo-Nazism has entered the mainstream, potentially influencing the White House, is so alarming and existentially terrifying that it's easier to lash out at the messenger than confront the reality.

If they accept this, it means that the political home they've invested so much of their identity in, the movement they've championed for years, has become something so morally repugnant that accepting it feels like breaking their own brain.

The cognitive dissonance is overwhelming.

What's striking to me is the selective outrage. Many of these same people are quick to call everyone communists, often with little more than circumstantial evidence.

Yet, when it comes to countless instances of glaringly obvious signs of fascism in their own movement, they either look away or attack those pointing it out.

[intern @intern]

Melania just cost Trump half his net worth and didn’t even need a divorce

[₿rett @brettmacro]

$TRUMP passed $MSTR in market cap. A company that owns 450,000 Bitcoin is now worth less than a meme created 2 days ago.

[Ice @FroyoFren]

Feels like $TRUMP has broken the spirit of majority of market participants — even veterans worth 7-8 figs who have missed their fair share of 100x’s are posting like they’re spiritually damaged. Everyone’s drinking some sort of depression kool-aid. I call this mass hysteria caused by a few factors:

• $TRUMP is the fastest token ever to hit a multi-billion dollar mcap

• Everyone has been conditioned by a brutal bear for 3 years, then the bull even felt like a bear because of dispersion

• Majority are finally making *some* money only to see something that shatters their mental model of where they are in the cycle

• Market at a place where it’s closer to the top than the bottom — we used to talk about a cycle top being years away, but now it feels months away (seen estimates ranging from March, October, to EOY)

• Everyone feels like $TRUMP might cause the end of this industry as we know it in 3-4 years. ‘Last play of the Last cycle forever’ vibes.

• Ethereum has done absolutely nothing, and had its millshake drank by Sol and L2 liquidity dispersion. Long term Consensus bets got cooked.

Crypto has always been a deeply insecure industry. Every single cycle, events transpire which raise the probability of crypto never coming back again to 50%+. This is why there’s a tendency to spin narratives and tokens around powerful people, for example Elon Musk and now Trump. Nothing new under the sun — first doge/elon now trump/trump.

If you were around for the axie, Luna, sandbox, shib, solana, bnb (and so many more) run-ups, you know this is nothing — the only notable thing is the time it’s taken for $trump to hit multibillions. But what do you expect? He’s POTUS.

For the market today:

• Go look at where TOTAL3 is, and tell me we’ve topped and this is the last play ever. You can’t.

• SPX is +50% from the 2021 crypto top and you think there isn’t enough global liquidity to create at bare minimum the same conditions we saw in prior cycles?

• Best $SOL cooker of this cycle, the flows on this sent SOL to all time highs. The cycle got easier now because you know where to look.

• Silly to think ETH won’t make a new ATH — but when it does, we’re close to the end. Even in 2021, ETH hit the first ATH around a month after BTC (April/May). Cycle ended May 21 (only for a brief encore a few months later).

This is literally just the second $10b+ cooker this cycle. Last cycle there were like 50 (rough guess). But guess what? A lot of the money was actually made from second and third order effects.

BNB up huge -> Cake went to gorillions.
LINK up huge -> Vaporware oracles to gorillions.
Olympus up huge -> an entire season to ohm forks going to billions

And so on.

POTUS launches a $63B token -> every other token looks small in comparison

The ceiling just got blown right off what a ‘reasonable’ valuation for anything crypto is.

Easy money season starts now — just long the things that are going up.

And no, not the last cycle.

Pre.

[Last ride to the Moon @lastrideto2moon]

A more comprehensive overview of Arbius: a recap of several recent threads & resources

$AIUS
🧵

[nic carter @nic_carter]

Leaving DC after two days of meetings with Congress and the Fed courtesy of @DigitalChamber. My takeaways:

- stablecoin bill is the priority, but probably won’t happen in the lame duck session
- huge bipartisan desire to work on crypto. Crypto efforts in this election did not go unnoticed
- members are energized and supportive of getting stablecoin bill done and market structure after that
- OCP2.0 is actively being looked into, both in terms of preventing it in the future and unearthing what happened. Very high priority for some members. Appears that justice will be served

Feeling incredibly heard and very optimistic about the future of crypto in DC!

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

JUGGERNAUT: $IBIT has hit the $40b asset mark (a mere two wks after hitting $30b) in a record 211 days, annihilating prev record of 1,253 days held by $IEMG. It's now in Top 1% of all ETFs by assets and at 10mo old it is bigger than all 2,800 ETFs launched in the past TEN years.

[DeFiMan @DeFiMann]

If you take both these datapoints you arrive to the following conclusion:

At this pace, in 339 days the whole $GMX supply in the market will be bought back by the protocol

[tano @tanoeth]

The funny thing is a few weeks ago people were saying GMX was dead. Lmao.

$GMX never has been this alive. Both charts are 30d.

GMX is earning more money than Base and getting ridiculously close to Uniswap revenues.

All while being $260M mkcap.

h/t to @SniperMonke01

[DeFiMan @DeFiMann]

Don't let recent price action distract you from the fact that GMX remains the king in perp dexes even with 0 incentives

Most undervalued DeFi coin by a mile

It's been a rough year, but I think we will enter the up only mode soon

[Dan Held @danheld]

The cure for Ethereum maximalism😂

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

How to invest in crypto like a pro

[Soft Default @softdefault]

Sharing my thoughts about $RLB cause these tweets benefit no one:

RLB is valuable because holders are exposed to a uniform cashflow via buy & burn which is derived from Rollbit's revenues.

This is the main utility of the token and used by the market for its valuation.

1/? 🧵👇

[ANyONe Protocol @AnyoneFDN]

🔷 Advisor Announcement: Sean Carey

ATOR is proud to announce our latest powerhouse addition to the team as advisor and investor: Sean Carey.

With over 25 years experience in the tech industry, notably in co-founding and leading the Helium Network as CTO, Sean has proven expertise in systems engineering and architecting network growth.

A true visionary in decentralized systems, Sean's advocacy for #DePIN and significant industry knowledge will be fundamental in driving ATOR’s vision to the next level.

Please take a moment to welcome Sean, #atornauts.

#2024isATOR

[ANyONe Protocol @AnyoneFDN]

The first external utility built on the ATOR Network has commenced development!

@ZKMLSystems is building the first zk-powered instant encrypted messaging app, with all messaging traffic encrypted through the ATOR Network.

Through our partners @ForteGrp, we have assembled a new, dedicated engineering team for ZKML. The ZKML messenger will leverage the first version of our SDK to integrate seamless privacy into the application, marking the first expansion of our network into an ecosystem.

🔹 The ZKML development team will strategically acquire $ATOR tokens to enable them to run relays, host hidden services, and, as the network matures, secure dedicated bandwidth within the network. In doing so, they pave the path for many more enterprises to build on the decentralized, composable privacy created by ATOR.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

Not everyone will make it this cycle.

You need to shift your mindset and detach from the crowd.

Coinbase app ranking will not tell you when the top is in.

Start thinking differently.

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimize for that objective regardless of the consequences. This leads to ignoring other equally important factors of a situation.

Furthermore, let me tell you that most of the top signals mentioned on CT won't work this time.

What was an obvious top signal in 2017 wasn't in 2021, and the same goes for 2024-25.

We’re moving towards the right curve of the adoption rate, and now all retail knows about crypto - some heard about it in 2017, and then almost everyone heard about it in 2021.

Don't mix the signs of adoption with top signals. Don’t let the PTSD ruin your fun.

Another point to address is the shift of influence - BlackRock & Co. controls Bitcoin now.

They are the major ETF providers and own shares of each other. So, they control the sentiment around BTC now.

And they also own all the media platforms. They can literally shape the narrative as they want.

Let me re-phrase it like this:

If most of this run-up is driven by institutional bids, why would retail indicators be relevant?

The indicator for this cycle will come from the people who haven’t been onboarded yet.

Yes, It can be retail who still haven't touched crypto - "late majority" and "laggards" - but you gotta think on a bigger scale.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Think of those countries with a sovereign wealth fund starting to diversify in $BTC. Some already invest in stocks, so it might be possible to see this scenario.

• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion
• China - $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia - $150 billion
• Qatar - $300 billion
• Singapore - $500 billion

Corporate Treasuries

We have already seen this in 2021 with Tesla purchasing $BTC and, more recently, with Reddit disclosing some of its crypto holdings.

The trend is just starting. Once you see daily headlines of companies diversifying their assets into
,it might be rational to start derisking.

Stock Market IPOs

Coinbase IPO in 2021 was the first major crypto company to be listed in the stock market. We might see this time tens of crypto companies doing their IPOs, and at some point, one listing will mark the top.

Over-Leveraging

Big hedge funds, companies, and maybe even small countries over-leveraging in the final stages of the bull run and getting rekt could be another scenario we might see this cycle.

Rehypothecation Crisis

The next Luna-type of collapse might come from the restaking sector and kickstart the bear market. It seems like everyone is overlooking the huge consequences of a depeg or slashing event in this sector.

Gold Reserves

The ultimate ultra top signal could be governments diversifying a small % of their gold reserves into Bitcoin - the "digital gold".

Some additional minor signals

Low-Income Countries Workers Shortage

Another big signal is when low-income countries will have a shortage of workers because these are making $300 to $600 a month mapping the roads with hivemapper or other DePIN projects and earning a higher salary than what they'd normally get.

Happened at a small scale last cycle with Axie and StepN. Will happen at a larger scale this cycle.

Las Vegas Sphere

Time Square was full of shit memecoins in 2021. The Las Vegas Sphere with crypto ads running on it for weeks straight will be the version of this cycle.

Funding Rounds

A pretty secure signal again will be checking the volumes of VC investments. Funding rounds skyrocketing and, maybe overpassing tradFi ones might be the indicator again to start exiting.

“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

- George Soros.