Matt Burke

Securities through @CommonwealthFN Member

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@TilmonClark @HSEAthletics @FHSTigers @IHSAA1 @IIAAA3 @NIAAA9100 Great respect for these men. Thank you for faithfully serving with your lives. Well done!

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HSEAthletics Well done Janet! Well done!! HSE is a far better place because of your dedication.

[Thoughtful Money® @thoughtfulmoney]

This Isn’t 1999 or 2007 — The Passive Bid Changed The Market Forever

In this Short video, Bill Fleckenstein @fleckcap and @AdamTaggart discuss why the passive bid has become the dominant force in markets—and why today’s environment is nothing like 1999 or 2007.

Most market participants are focusing on the wrong variables: macro data, geopolitics (war, tariffs), valuations, you name it. These matter far less than one dominant force: the “passive bid.”

What is the passive bid? It is the continuous inflows into passive investing vehicles (index funds, ETFs, retirement accounts), which mechanically deploy capital that buys regardless of valuation or macro conditions.

This creates a persistent upward force in markets, largely disconnected from fundamentals.

On top of the passive bid, you have a Federal Reserve willing to inject liquidity and policies like QE (Quantitative Easing) — even if rebranded (e.g., “RMP” – Reserve Management Purchases).

This results in cheap capital, liquidity flooding markets, and reinforcement of upward price trends. So, passive inflows + easy money = structurally bullish environment.

Why is it so hard to fight/break? @fleckcap uses the following metaphor: the passive bid is like a supertanker moving through water. It’s slow, massive, and powerful – it creates waves behind it (secondary strategies). 

What followed this trend:
– Growth of algorithmic and systematic strategies
– “Copycat” or momentum-following participants (“pilot fish”)
– Factor investing built on past market behavior

This ecosystem feeds on itself: passive flows → drive trends, algos detect trends → amplify them, and more capital follows → reinforces trend.

Here is an example: the 2025 Tariffs shock happened when systematic strategies were heavily positioned. It triggered forced selling, momentum reversal, and psychological panic.

As a result, the market decline fed on itself. But importantly, this wasn’t a fundamental repricing – it was a mechanical unwind.

Labor market deterioration is what could actually break the system – not war or macro shocks, not even valuations. A shift from workers contributing to retirees withdrawing could reduce inflows into passive vehicles, and potentially reverse the bid.

Today's market is driven by flows, not fundamentals. The behavior looks “crazy” (mania-like) – similar to what we have seen in 1999 and 2007.
But there is a critical difference: back then, we had no QE, no dominant passive flows. Today, we have massive passive bid and central bank liquidity support. Therefore, historical analogies no longer work.

Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Bill Fleckenstein by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@FHSTigers Right along with HSE’s Clayton Allen. What a storybook season!

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@FOX59 How often are portions of the White House demolished for the wishes of the new administration? Also were surveys done for those projects as well?

I’d guess a large number of folks are against spending money on any past, present or future project.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@AngelaMoryanTV @HSEAthletics @HSEFootball @WISHNews8 And that was a freshman throwing that pass.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@adamtaggart Hedgeye coaches well and kept many of their subscribers above water over past weeks.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HedgeyeAI While I don’t disagree with ROR being very low, I’m curious how you accounted for disability, survival and spousal benefits. Was that a factor in your modeling?

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@ingelramdecoucy @noelsmith Pictures provided by Professor Harold Hill?

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HSEAthletics @HSERoyalsBase @kenseitz15 Happy belated birthday coach @kenseitz15!

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@Protestia Turn your eyes upon Jesus. Look full in His wonderful face. And the things of earth will grow strangely dim, in the light of His glory and grace.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@Larryinfishers Thank you for for your tireless work. Hope you can rest.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HedgeyeDJ Live in Hamilton County 50 years and would say it will be quite awhile. Lines in Fishers were 2 hours+ most of the day. Guessing won’t report until 8-9pm as folks finish voting.

One thing for sure. Turnout was massive. An all time high for Jonseybuds.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HSEAthletics @HSEFootball @HSECheerleading @HSEPrincipal Well done Royals!

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@DougKass I follow for economic commentary and have zero interest in political commentary. Both candidates are full of warts and espouse bad economic policies. Both will spend endlessly with no regard for future. Worst economic policy ever=abortion. Eliminating future workers and consumers

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@adamtaggart No doubt some will use this as their rationale/narrative for higher asset values. Time will tell. Remember there were trillions of dollars in CD’s and savings pre-Covid earning nearly zero. No one really knows where this money will or will not go.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@adamtaggart What hopes and dreams does he foresee as a result of this forth turning? Want does he hope we leave behind and what does his ideal future look like?

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@msdwt @NCHS_panthers Thank you for serving us well@HSESchools! Going to miss you @Jaggac4. Congratulations and may God bless you in this next chapter. Well done my friend.

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HedgeyeDJ Grumpiest Old Men

[Matt Burke @resourcematt]

@HSEAthletics @HSESchools Well done Greg! HSE is a far better place for all your years of dedication and service. Enjoy your next chapter.