$RDDT yet again getting sold along with $IGV components - I view this as an adding opportunity.
Sub $150 I’ll be a buyer again.
Incredibly stupid to sell Reddit off with software.
$RDDT up 4-5% premarket on positive notes from Piper Sandler and Cleveland Research
At @FirstWaveFund we pay for several alt data sources... each of them looks good for $RDDT on Q2 numbers... significantly higher than the current sell side estimates.
Here are my recent posts about it... https://t.co/UiJ1UqapLq and https://t.co/66OvwaoZO2
Sell side is looking for 46% YoY revenue growth yet all of the alt data sources are suggesting something between 54-58% YoY for Q2.
Sell side estimates for Q2 are $729M revenues... we still have a few weeks to go but I'm thinking Q2 revenues might come in at $770-780M
$RDDT CEO dropped a bomb on an AMA yesterday that the market might be waking up to.
Reddit’s data is invaluable for AI labs, the market hasn’t caught on yet.
“Foundational models benefit from Reddit in pre training, post training, grounding, and search because our authentic human perspective is increasingly rare.
That’s why people are increasingly looking to Reddit for real opinions and real experiences - and why Reddit content is the #1 cited source across LLMs.
No other data source can replicate the continuously-generated, community-curated, preference-labeled map of how humans actually communicate and make judgments.
These partnerships are meaningful to us and to our partners, and it’s important to us to have partnerships that capture the value only Reddit can bring.”
That sounds like big deals are coming.
S&P 500 inclusion (if not this quarter then next), data licensing deal renewals, and the Anthropic litigation settlement are on the horizon.
On Reddit's AI data licensing deals (Google & OpenAI)
The CEO said it's their "job to make sure they fully capture that value" and that the "deals are complex, like M&A"
"Relationships have been mutually really valuable, everybody is incentivised to continue doing that"
$RDDT
Leopold has been quietly accumulating $NBIS since the bottom of the Iran war.
13Fs are a backward looking snapshot as of March 31st.
He just filed a 13G today disclosing 5.6% OWNERSHIP OF ALL $NBIS outstanding shares because he recently passed the 5% reporting threshold.
@amitisinvesting Leopold's fund in the Q1 13F showed he was heavily short the chip complex with $8.5B in puts. How does fit into the new $2.5B long position in $NBIS?
$AMD CRUSHED THEIR Q1 EARNINGS
• Revenue $10.25B vs Est. $9.85B
• EPS $1.37 vs. Est. $1.29
• Data Center Revenue $5.8B vs Est. $5.6B
• Gross Margin 55% vs. Est. 52%
Q2 Guidance
• Revenue $11.2B vs Est. $10.5B
• Gross Margin 56% vs. Est. 55%
$IREN CEO on last earnings call - "One of the contracts we are negotiating at the moment is a multi-billion dollar contract where we would have to bring a software solution".
Today, IREN acquires Mirantis for $625M.
The $IREN x Mirantis Acquisition: Deep Dive into the Numbers
$IREN has officially moved from "Power & Hardware" to "Full-Stack AI."
The acquisition of Mirantis for $625M is a pivotal moment for $IREN’s valuation and business model.
Here are the hard facts on the deal structure and why it matters for retail investors:
1️⃣ The Price & Structure
Total Consideration: $625 million.
Payment Method: 100% in $IREN ordinary shares.
➡️Dilution Impact: Based on current market cap, this represents only ~3.8% dilution.
$IREN is effectively using its "expensive" equity as currency to buy a high-value software engine without touching its cash reserves.
➡️Operational Setup: Mirantis will operate as a standalone subsidiary, retaining its veteran engineering team (approx. 750 employees).
2️⃣ What are they buying? (The "Software Moat")
Mirantis isn't a startup; they are a cloud-native veteran.
➡️Revenue Base:
Substantial SaaS/Subscription-based revenue from 1,500+ enterprise customers, including major Fortune 500 names.
➡️The Tech:
Mirantis’ k0rdent platform is the "killer app" here. It allows $IREN to orchestrate thousands of GPUs on "bare metal" (no performance-sapping virtualization layers).
This means $IREN’s AI Cloud will likely be faster and more efficient than competitors.
3️⃣ Strategic Vertical Integration
$IREN is now vertically integrated across the entire AI value chain:
➡️Energy/Land: Proprietary data center sites.
➡️Hardware: Massive fleet of high-end GPUs.
➡️Software (New): The Mirantis stack to manage, scale, and sell that power.
The Verdict:
For a 4% dilution, $IREN has eliminated its biggest weakness: the lack of a proprietary software layer.
They now own the "operating system" for their data centers.
I am very bullish. Great work @danroberts0101 and whole @IREN_Ltd team 👏
Bringing compute online is the hard part.
Mirantis helps us do it better - strengthening how compute is deployed, managed and operated for customers. $IREN
Sweetwater 1 has been successfully energized – a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus.
@danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN commented:
“Delivering Sweetwater 1 substation energization on schedule reflects our disciplined execution, the strength of our supply chain relationships and the efficiency of our vertically integrated development model. It is another example of our ability to design and construct large-scale infrastructure reliably and at speed to meet market demand.”
Learn more: https://t.co/Bo0tSv67jM
$RDDT has demonstrated high operating leverage. The 74% growth in ad revenue specifically suggests that their ad-targeting tools and platform ecosystem are successfully converting user engagement into cash, which will likely be the primary focus for analysts and investors NOW!
$RDDT Earnings:
- Total revenue increased 69% year-over-year to $663 million, Ad revenue increased 74% year-over-year to $625 million, and Other revenue increased 15% year-over-year to $39 million
- Gross margin was 91.5%, as compared to 90.5% in the prior year
- Net income was $204 million, an improvement of $178 million from the prior year
- Adjusted EBITDA was $266 million, an improvement of $151 million from the prior year
“Reddit is a one-of-one business powered by deeply engaged communities and authentic human conversation,” said Steve Huffman, Founder and CEO of Reddit. “That foundation is driving a rare combination of growth, profitability, and efficiency, and giving Reddit a unique advantage in the age of AI.”
https://t.co/1q7AlM6cOa