Retireloop

I tweet sometimes. Not financial advice. Tweets for informational and education purposes. Consult your financial/tax advisor.

[Retireloop @RetireLoop]

How I trade these signals

STOP LOSS: There are no stop losses. Rational being if the trend turns we will get an opposite signal.

PROFIT TARGET:

First half position: 3% for ETFs , 5% of ETFs which are more volatile (Bitcoin, Natural Gas, Ethereum), 5% for stocks

[Hereafter @idyllicmusing]

Soil fertility alone explains 34% of the differences in national IQ. Countries on the best soils (Mollisols, Andisols) average 10–15 IQ points higher than those on the wort soils (Oxisols, Ultisols), even before accounting for education or income.
This geographic pattern is visible in real populations. Japan and Taiwan sit on volcanic Andisols and consistently rank among the highest in global intelligence metrics due to their nutrient‑rich, high‑CEC soils. Meanwhile, much of equatorial Africa rests on Oxisols, soils so weathered and nutrient‑stripped that they produce chronically low micronutrient availability.
The further a soil’s pH drifts from 6.5, the more national IQ (MNIQ) declines. If your soil is too acidic (like much of the tropics), zinc and iron become unavailable. If your soil is too alkaline (like the Middle East), micronutrients get locked up too. The correlation between soil fertility and national IQ is r = 0.58, meaning soil alone accounts for 34% of the variation. Explaining 34% of a complex human trait is extremely high.

[Peter - Cracking Markets @SystematicPeter]

+63.9% this year with -16.9% drawdown so far.

And I will share 100% of the rules here.

Not from AI.
Not from some complex quant model.

Just a very basic monthly Nasdaq 100 rotational system.

The rules:

* Trade only when $NDX is above its 200-day moving average
* Every month scan Nasdaq 100 stocks
* Keep only stocks above their own 200-day moving average
* Keep only stocks with positive 250-day percentage change
* Rank them by 250-day percentage change
* Buy the top 10
* Hold for one month
* Repeat

That is it.

No prediction.
No macro forecasting.
No discretionary chart reading.
No secret sauce.

Just:

market regime filter
stock trend filter
momentum ranking
monthly rebalance

Of course, not every year will look like this.

Some years will be choppy.
Some years will underperform buy and hold.
Some years will feel too simple to trust.

But this is exactly why I trade systematically.

The edge is not in predicting the next winner.

The edge is in building a repeatable process.

And once you understand the basic concept, you can push it much further.

A great way to start testing this properly:

RealTest + Norgate data.

Especially because Norgate gives you survivorship-bias-free Nasdaq 100 constituents through history, so you are not accidentally testing today’s winners in the past.

[Sundar Pichai @sundarpichai]

Our new Gemma 4 12B model hits a sweet spot between size + performance: it can run locally on a laptop, while enabling powerful multi-step reasoning and agentic workflows. Can’t wait to see what the community does with this one!

[Sean trades @SRxTrades]

If you are a momentum trader and you're not using the 8 ema... not sure what you are doing

All of the best names eventually give you a pullback into the 8 ema for a perfect buy

Look for:

-Low volume pullback
-Tight pattern setting up
-Undercut of previous days low

Always buy near the 8 ema.

[Lia the Trader 👸💸 @Liathetrader]

@gofishh77 I would donate him away that little fucker 🤣🤣🤣

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, one of the worst starts to a year in history.

After one of the biggest 9-week rallies ever (+19%), it's now up over 11% YTD, more than 2x higher than the average year at this point in time (+5%).

There is no impossible in markets.

[Retireloop @RetireLoop]

@charliebilello Maybe we are in 1995/97 and this time the extreme will be much higher

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

As we head into June with the S&P 500 at the highest level it has ever traded at, just remember this is the only month to never see the ultimate peak for the year.

[Jim @JP_Money_95630]

Something used in Vegas A lot, Same for Wallstreet.

Small ball wins championships.
🏀💰 🏆

My options system is simple:

1 unit per trade (1–2% of account), tight stops, trim winners, roll to new strikes, book the win.
Repeat.

Win rate? ~5 outta 10 trades (basically Wall Street avg).

The edge isn’t being right — it’s risk control + asymmetric payoffs.

📌 Unit Math (10 trades):

10 trades x 1 unit risk
5 losers stopped at -50% →
5 × (-0.5) = -2.5 units

5 winners (3 go 2x, 2 go 3x)

2x = +1 unit profit → 3 × (+1) = +3 units

3x = +2 units profit → 2 × (+2) = +4 units

✅ Total winners = +7 units

✅ Net = +7 - 2.5 = +4.5 units

That’s with a 50% hit rate.
That’s the whole point.

I don’t need 90% accuracy…

I need small losses + big winners. 🧠📈

TL/DR: Assumptions:

10 total trades
1 unit per trade
5 losers, each stopped at -0.5 unit
5 winners, with 3 going 2x and 2 going 3x

2x winner = +1 unit profit
3x winner = +2 units profit

Results:
Loss side (tight stops)
5 losers × (-0.5) = -2.5 units
Win side (big payoffs)
3 winners at 2x: 3 × (+1) = +3 units
2 winners at 3x: 2 × (+2) = +4 units

Total profit from winners: +7 units

Net performance
✅ Net P&L: +7 − 2.5 = +4.5 units

What that implies
Trade win rate: 5/10 = 50%

Expectancy: +4.5 / 10 = +0.45 units per trade

Profit factor: 7 / 2.5 = 2.8 (strong)

Bottom line: even at a “Wall Street average” 50% hit rate, the tight stop (-0.5) + 2x/3x winners makes the whole system a net winner.

[Jake Wujastyk @Jake__Wujastyk]

$SPY $SPX $ES_F This chart suggests that there is still a lot of room left in the roaring 20's.

[Scott Redler @RedDogT3]

I don’t care what Mike is doing. I don’t care what most analysts say. I have a routine and a process. I approach the market 6 different timeframes. The market will let me know the type of risk. $pltr was my best trade this week
Perfect break of a six month Downtrend. Reclaimed all moving averages. Already sold 75% of the calls.

[Lia the Trader 👸💸 @Liathetrader]

This is a late-cycle melt-up. The scary part is the structure underneath this market.

CTAs maxed out long. 41 cents of every passive dollar forced into the same handful of stocks. No buyers left just potential sellers sitting on massive positions.

We flagged the dollar risk in our last week's commodities report.. We were right.

This week's commodities report just dropped. 👇👇👇

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 WHAT IS A "CLIMAX RUN"?

The most dangerous sell signal in stock market history. And the most ignored.

The term comes from William O'Neil, founder of Investor's Business Daily and author of "How to Make Money in Stocks." O'Neil studied over 100 years of stock charts to understand how the greatest winners end.

His finding: they almost always end the same way.

THE DEFINITION
After months or years of a sustained uptrend, the price suddenly accelerates 25–50% in just one or two weeks. The chart goes vertical. Volume explodes. Headlines turn euphoric.

That's not a sign of strength. That's exhaustion.

THE 5 CLASSIC SIGNS
– A long prior advance (months, often years)
– Sudden acceleration of 25–50% in 1–2 weeks
– Weekly range larger than any since the move began
– Price stretched 70–100% above the 200-day moving average
– Stock splits, magazine covers, "this time is different"

THE INTUITION BEHIND IT
A climax run is the moment when the last buyers rush in out of fear of missing out. Smart money bought long ago. Now they're selling to the late buyers. When no one is left who hasn't bought yet, there are no buyers left.

The market doesn't fall because the story is wrong.

It falls because everyone who believes the story is already invested.

THE FAMOUS EXAMPLES
– Cisco 1999: climax run, then -89%
– Qualcomm 1999: climax run, then -88%
– Tesla 2021: climax run, then -73%
– SMCI 2024: climax run, then -85%

O'Neil's advice: "Act like a robot. Take the gains and walk away calmly."

Anyone can execute this signal.

You just have to be willing to leave the party while the music is still loud.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

What's been the best hedge against inflation over the past 50 years?

Video Discussion: https://t.co/qlg5p6PHgG

[Cuma Cevik @cevikfinance]

Trader! Bu paylaşımı MUTLAKA OKU! Sana kimsenin kolay kolay vermeyeceği bilgileri öğretecek, trade yaklaşımını ve düşünce şeklini değiştirecek efsanevi ustalardan bahsedeceğim.

Bu adamların ortak sırrı piyasanın yönünü tahmin etmeleri değil; %1 risk alıp %30-50 getiri yakaladıkları asimetrik risk matematiğidir.

Eğer sürekli yön bulmaya çalışmaktan yorulduysan, falcılık yapmayı bırak ve bu ustaların kitaplarını oku, trade stratejilerini araştır öğren, videolarını bul izle!

İşte size tanıtacağım 8 efsanevi swing trader ustası:

1. Kristjan Qullamaggie: Göreceli güç (Relative Strength) odaklıdır. En güçlü giden lider hisselerin hacim kuruması ve sıkışma dönemlerini yakalar. Bu stratejisiyle 5.000 doları birkaç yıl içinde 100 milyon doların üzerine çıkarmıştır ve şu anki servetinin de 100 milyon doların üzerinde olduğu bilinmektedir. Kazanma oranı %30 civarında olmasına rağmen, kayıpları mikro seviyede tutup büyük trendleri sonuna kadar sürerek devasa bir bileşik getiri yaratmıştır.

2. Mark Minervini: Temel analiz kriterlerini (en az %20-50 bilanço büyümesi) teknik kırılımla birleştirir. Birden fazla ABD Yatırım Şampiyonluğu vardır ve Jack Schwager'ın Borsa Sihirbazları kitabında yer almıştır. Volatilite sıkışmalarını ve kurumsal birikimi tespit ederek 20 bin doları 5 yıl içinde %33.554 getiriyle milyonlarca dolara ulaştırmıştır ve şu anki servetinin 70 ila 100 milyon dolar arasında olduğu tahmin edilmektedir.

3. Dan Zanger: Grafik formasyonları ve agresif kaldıraç kullanımı ile bilinir. 1990'ların sonunda boğa bayrakları ve kanal kırılımlarında kaldıraç kullanarak 11.000 doları sadece 23 ayda 42 milyon dolara ulaştırmıştır ve şu anki servetinin 50 milyon dolar civarında olduğu tahmin edilmektedir.

4. William O'Neil: Minervini ve Qullamaggie dahil tüm modern momentum traderların kurucu babasıdır. CAN SLIM Stratejisini bulan efsanedir. Temel analiz (yüksek kazanç büyümesi) ile teknik analizi (fincan-kulp gibi formasyonlar) birleştiren bir sistem bulmuştur. Milyar dolarlık kurumsal fon kurmuş ve daha sonrasında popüler yatırımcı platformu IBD'yi kurmuştur. 2023 yılında vefat ettiğinde arkasında 100 milyon doların üzerinde bir servet bırakmıştır.

5. Pradeep Bonde: Kristjan Qullamaggie'nin trade tarzını şekillendiren en önemli akıl hocasıdır. Şirket haberleri veya kazanç raporları sonrasında oluşan devasa boşluklu (gap) kırılımları (EP) ve 3 ila 5 günlük kısa vadeli ivme patlamalarını trade etme metodolojisini bizzat geliştirmiştir. Şu anki servetinin 10 ila 15 milyon dolar civarında olduğu tahmin edilmektedir.

6. Nicolas Darvas: 1950'lerde 25 bin doları 2 milyon dolar yapan efsanevi dansçı ve trader. Darvas Kutusu Teorisi (Box Theory) ile hisselerin belirli fiyat kutuları içinde konsolide olduğunu ve üst kutuya geçişte alım yapılması gerektiğini savunur. Modern sarsıntı (shakeout) ve stop yönetimi mantığının temelini atmıştır.

7. Oliver Kell: 2020 ABD Yatırım Şampiyonası'nı %941 getiriyle kazanan modern ustadır. Genişleme Döngüleri (Extension Cycles) ile Hareketli ortalamalar (özellikle 10 EMA ve 20 EMA) etrafındaki fiyat döngülerini ve trend yapısını çok sıkı matematiksel kurallarla takip eden modern çağın en verimli momentum ustalarından biridir. Şu anki servetinin 10 milyon dolar üstünde olduğu tahmin edilmektedir.

8. David Ryan: William O'Neil'ın baş öğrencisidir. Sıkı konsolidasyonlar ve hacim kurumaları metodu ile küçük bir hesabı 1980'lerde üst üste üç kez ABD Yatırım Şampiyonu yapıp milyon dolarlara ulaştırmıştır ve şu anki servetinin 10 milyon doların üzerinde olduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Minervini'nin VCP (Volatilite Sıkıştırma Formasyonu) mantığına çok benzer şekilde, fiyattaki daralmaları, kurumsal birikimi ve hacim kurumalarını hatasız tespit etme disipliniyle bilinir.

Devamı sonraki twitte.. 🧵

[rrando 🇺🇸 @tweetRRANDO]

@charliebilello I've lost a lot by
rebalancing
selling winners
taking profits early
holding losers to get even
doubling down on my losers
I'm trying to avoid those traps
It's difficult because it goes counter to my instincts.
Gotta learn to trust my brain, not my gut.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 1,400% since the March 2009 low - despite 32 corrections >5%.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The 17% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 8 weeks is the 20th biggest 8-week gain for the index since 1950.

What has happened in the past following the biggest short-term rallies?

Above-average forward returns (+27% average over the subsequent year vs. +11% in other periods).

[Retireloop @RetireLoop]

@STMPortfolio @Mr_Derivatives Yes. Same in 1997 a strong bull for 3 years.

[Evan Luthra @EvanLuthra]

🚨A HACKER GROUP JUST STOLE 4,000 OF GITHUB'S OWN PRIVATE REPOSITORIES.. PUT THEM UP FOR SALE FOR $50,000.. AND THE WAY THEY GOT IN IS THE SCARIEST PART..

They didn't hack GitHub's servers.. They poisoned a VS Code extension.. One GitHub employee installed it.. And the attackers walked through the front door using the employee's own credentials..

The group calls themselves TeamPCP.. They name their malware after the sandworms from Dune.. And they've been running the most sophisticated supply chain attack campaign in cybersecurity history..

Here's how the whole thing unfolded..

In March.. They poisoned Trivy.. One of the most trusted security scanners in the world.. Used by over 10,000 development workflows globally..

They injected credential-stealing malware into Trivy's official GitHub Action.. The malware ran silently BEFORE the security scan.. So every log showed "scan completed successfully" while the malware was stealing AWS keys, SSH credentials, database passwords, and Kubernetes tokens in the background..

It took Aqua Security 5 days to fully remove them..

Using the stolen credentials.. They breached Cisco Systems.. Cloned over 300 private repositories.. Including source code for unreleased AI products.. And repositories belonging to Cisco's customers.. Major banks.. Government agencies.. BPO firms..

In April.. They hit Checkmarx.. Another security vendor.. Poisoned 5 official Docker images in 83 minutes.. The scanner worked perfectly.. It just silently sent all your secrets to the attackers..

That automatically cascaded into Bitwarden.. The password manager.. Their CI/CD system pulled the poisoned Docker image.. And the attackers injected malware into Bitwarden's official CLI package published on npm..

One compromised security scanner poisoned a password manager.. Automatically.. No human involved..

In May.. They hit TanStack.. Libraries downloaded millions of times per week.. 84 malicious package versions across 42 packages..

And here's the terrifying part..

The malware scraped the raw memory of GitHub's build servers.. Extracted authentication tokens.. Used those tokens to bypass two-factor authentication.. And then published the infected packages with completely valid cryptographic signatures..

Every security verification tool on earth said the packages were legitimate.. Because they were signed by the real pipeline.. Using real keys.. The attackers just happened to be inside the pipeline when it signed..

They defeated the entire trust model of modern software supply chains..

The same week they hit the Nx Console VS Code extension.. 2.2 million installations.. The malware specifically targeted Claude Code configurations.. Hunting for AI assistant credentials..

That's a first.. Supply chain malware designed to steal your AI's access keys..

Then on May 19.. They revealed the GitHub breach.. 4,000 internal repositories.. Listed for sale at $50,000.. With a warning.. "If nobody buys it.. We leak everything for free"..

Their malware is self-propagating.. Once it infects one package.. It automatically finds every other package that developer maintains.. Steals the publish tokens.. And infects all of them.. Then those packages infect the next developer.. And the next..

It jumps between npm and PyPI automatically..
The group doesn't even do the extortion themselves.. They sell stolen credentials to ransomware gangs.. One gang used TeamPCP's data to threaten Cisco with leaking FBI and NASA personnel records..

And the scariest part of all..

They didn't break any encryption.. They didn't find any zero-days.. They exploited the fact that the entire software industry blindly trusts its own build tools..

Every security scanner.. Every Docker image.. Every VS Code extension.. Every GitHub Action.. Is a potential weapon if someone poisons it upstream..

And right now.. Nobody can tell the difference between a legitimate build and a compromised one..

Because the compromised ones have valid signatures too.