Reza

Financial trader

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Reminder: China has officially entered the competition for global USD bond flows.

China is now issuing USD-denominated bonds at the same yield as the United States ....

a direct challenge for international capital.

If this trend grows meaningfully, it will intensify the US fiscal crisis, because foreign investors finally have an alternative destination for their dollars that:

- isn’t the US
- isn’t the Eurozone
- and doesn’t expose them to US sanctions

This shows something crucial:

The world can decouple from the US without dedollarizing, simply by redirecting their dollar savings away from Treasuries and towards China...

At a time where the US needs foreign capital the most

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

We have a mixed picture across indices with market broadening/ $RSP making ATH while momentum & leaders $SMH selling off
-While too early to tell if 20W cycle low happened on July 17 in $QQQ $SOXX I left it as 40D low for now & the new 40D cycle already failed on day 11. The next 40D low is due around Aug 21 (OpEx). This is likely a bearish / left translated cycle with more downside ahead
-For now $QQQ $SOXX are ST oversold and found support on 100 DMA. Close below opens doors for a move to 200 DMA (further 15% decline in semis)
-FOMC tomorrow (likely keep rates unchanged - reaction TBD) and $SKHY earnings (maybe a bounce?)

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Memory Liquidation

The AI memory market is not the telecom boom, and it is not the housing bubble.

What we are seeing now is a leverage event: too much leverage, too much crowding, and too much exposure piled into the same trade, all of which now need to be unwound. That matters because a real supply crunch in memory has been amplified by positioning, acute shortages and sharply higher prices tied to AI infrastructure demand are real.

Yes the easy money in the AI trade has been made!

Let’s be explicit about what that means. Parabolic charts are not proof of durable fundamentals; they are often evidence of momentum, leverage, and borrowed conviction feeding on themselves. When a trade gets this crowded, price stops reflecting only supply and demand and starts reflecting how much fast money is trapped in the move.

The underlying AI demand story is still real, and the fundamental supply-demand imbalance still exists. AI demand has forced companies to fight for dwindling memory supplies, while chipmakers prioritized higher-margin data-center chips and memory prices spiked sharply over the past year.

But that does not mean every price swing is fundamental. Narrative follows price: when memory names surge, investors discover scarcity; when they break, they suddenly discover China risk or efficiency gains.

That is why the analogies to the 1990s telecom boom and the housing bubble are only partly useful. In those episodes, supply ran ahead of demand, too much fiber, too many houses. Here, demand has outrun supply, but the stock market layered excessive leverage on top of a real bottleneck.

As Graham observed, the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long run. Right now, the vote is being driven by crowding, leverage, and forced selling.

Over time, the market will weigh the underlying AI demand and the still-tight supply picture on their merits. What is being liquidated is not the existence of demand. It is the leverage wrapped around the story.

Yes Parabolic charts that amplify crowded leverage one way bets should be avoided.

[Dividend Talks on YouTube @DividendTalks]

The most important earnings week of the quarter is here.

Wednesday: $MSFT + $META
Thursday: $AAPL + $AMZN

But the real test is much broader:

AI infrastructure: $ARM, $QCOM, $LRCX, $KLA, $VRT

Consumer strength: $V, $MA, $PYPL, $KO, $UPS

Economic health: $BA, $F, $XOM, $CVX

The key question is who can guide strongly enough to justify the expectations already priced in?

By Friday, we should know whether this rally is broadening or still dependent on a handful of mega-caps delivering near-perfect results.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

No Go. Cant get fingers above that warp wall today! (PDL)

[Qualtrim @qualtrim]

Buffett and Terry Smith agree on one thing:

FCF/share is king.

It measures how much cash a business generates for each shareholder.

Here are 6 modern-day FCF/share compounding machines:

1) ServiceNow – $NOW:

[Sniper Trades @snipetrades]

Earnings Next Week

$AVGO $CRWD $CRDO $PANW $HPE $CIEN $RBRK $PL $AI $DG $MMED $VSCO $LULU $GTLB $MDT $SAIC $VEEV $ULTA $DOCU $HIVE $FIVE $IOT $MOMO $ODD $SIG $DCI $CMCO $TIGR $CAL $CGNT $M $DSGX $CHPT $ABM $SPWH $OLLI $PVH $TTAN $TTC $THO $NTSK $WOOF $YEXT $PICS $BBCP $BF.B $XE $CANG $CXM $COO

[HaseebBadar_Stocks @hb_stocks]

Hey @grok remove the setup that created the most millionaires

[Architect of Alpha ▲ @ondrejslunecko]

Joel Greenblatt proved it with math:

7 to 12 stocks is just right.
Crème de la crème.

[The Future of Farming @Agriculfuture]

Retirement plans

[Sarah @SarahAIHub]

Salary vs Business Income.

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

PRECIOUS METALS SUPER CYCLE WATCHLIST

Gold Majors:
$NEM $AEM $GOLD $KGC $AU

Gold Growth:
$IAG $BTG $HMY $NGD $OR

Silver Majors:
$PAAS $AG $MAG $EXK

Silver Growth:
$HYMC $USAS $SVM

Royalty / Streaming:
$WPM $FNV $RGLD

Copper (AI + Grid + Electrification):
$FCX $SCCO $CSCCF $HBM

Copper Growth / Small Caps:
$TGB $NGEX $IVPAF $LUNMF

Platinum / Palladium:
$SBSW $IMPUY $PLG

Rare Earths / Critical Minerals:
$MP $USAR $UUUU

Uranium / Nuclear Fuel:
$CCJ $LEU $UUUU $DNN $NXE $SMR $OKLO

Materials / Aluminum / Steel:
$AA $X $CLF $NUE

Battery Metals / Lithium:
$ALB $SQM $LAC

ETF Basket:
$GLD $SLV

[Melissa Tate @TheRightMelissa]

BREAKING Major Development 🚨

The UAE has changed all their Iranian flag to reflect the old Iranian flag with the lion & sun vs the Islamic Iranian flag with the word Allah on it

This was unimaginable even a year ago. Gulf states are siding w/ Iranian people, Israel & the US against the Islamic regime

[Amanda van Dyke @AmandaVandyke13]

We need to mine as much copper in the next 25 years as we did in the last 125 years. The vast majority of global reserves sit between .14-.34 %. That is the canary in the coal mine. That mean exponentially bigger pits, more waste, more tailings, more chemicals, and more energy to get the same amount of copper. Copper recoveries are not getting better. Economies of scale in mining are becoming diseconomies of scale. This cannot be done without completely re thinking how we find, mine and refine everything from copper to rare earths. The Copper Paradox is the Mining Paradox. #mineralimperative #criticalmineralshub. @ScottNorth64736 @EdZamanillo @ctindale

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: A US Navy Ohio-class nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine, identified as the USS Alaska, has docked publicly in Gibraltar with Royal Marines security and a 200-meter exclusion zone, following Trump's rejection of Iran's formal response.

Ohio-class submarines carry up to 20 Trident nuclear missiles. They almost never make public port calls.

[Hims House @himshouse]

$HIMS PRICE CHANGE - DAY AFTER EARNINGS 🤯

[TheBronxViking @TheBronxViking]

Market Tide call premiums straight off a cliff

Everyone knows how insane this move has been so any signs of the music stopping and everyone takes profits/close short dated calls & dives right into a chair at the same time🕺💃🎶🪑🔇

[Dividend Dad @DividendDad1]

What Is a Duopoly?

Some industries are dominated by just two companies.

That structure is called a duopoly.
Instead of dozens of competitors fighting for market share, two major players control most of the market.

[Kawsar @Kawsar_Ai]

4. Dividend Danger Radar

Prompt:

“Search for 5 companies with an apparently attractive dividend yield (>5%) but with warning signs (high payout ratio, negative free cash flow, rising debt). For each one include: ticker, current yield, probability of a cut, safer alternatives in the same sector, and sources.”