Fred

[EnergyCynic @EnergyCynic]

AI doom is way more fun than climate doom.

Can we all appreciate how dumb the climate change stuff was and the fact it’s gone from our timelines. ✌️

[Michael Spyker @ShaleTier7]

Man it's gotta be just a brutal day to be Jerry Jones. Just checking in on the worst play of all time. Holy crap these wells are bad, and the timing of the play arguably even worse.

Comstock Western Haynesville expansion probably one of the worst timed bets in the last 10 years natural gas? That's saying a lot.

So first, Jerry moves capital out of Louisiana, which is pretty much a different country than Texas. Cause the "easy approval" pipelines are all intrastate (i.e. don't cross state lines), the Louisiana gas supply market is radically different than Texas. Permian is puking gas into Texas, but not so much Louisiana (eventually though).

So Jerry has built one of the highest cost gas assets (deep, dry gas with massive capital cost per well) and is competing with one of the lowest cost gas assets (associated Permian natural gas/liquids rich gas). Literally the cost of supply is ~$10/MMBtu difference. Permian cost is -$5/MMBtu and Western HSVL is +$5/MMBtu. Lmao.

So, by the time he'd done HBP-ing the Western Haynesville and ready to grow, there's about 10 Bcf/d of $0-cost Permian gas coming to absolutely destroy the central Texas gas market. Their top quartile wells don't clear a cost of capital/make money until ~$4.50/MMBtu which is obviously never going to happen, and the average well doesn't tick until near $6/MMBtu.

I dunno man. I am/was a fan of the Western Haynesville but this seems like a very notably awful spot for Comstock to be in. Compare the deep Haynesville to the Deep Woodford/Wolfcamp/Barnett in the Delaware (last picture) and where the Western Haynesville starts to break even, the Woodford is printing 0.5x P/I10% which is more than enough to incentivize drilling. Especially at scale, if you can get enough FT to get $0.90 tolls and lower cost processing you're laughing.

Not really sure how this doesn't end in pain.

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@Johnaldo77 @TaylorSafford @ralphamsden Sick burn

[Clay Travis @ClayTravis]

Giving kids under 18 the covid shot was insane. And all of us who said it was insane were ripped to shreds by the “experts.” Here Fauci acknowledges it doesn’t make sense in his private diary. All while continuing to insist parents get their kids the shot. And boosters.

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@Johnaldo77 @TaylorSafford @ralphamsden Are you ok?

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@milesashoaf How does your ranking differ?

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@Megatron_ron @grok will nuclear fusion contribute materially towards global electricity needs in the 2030s?

[Steve Everley @saeverley]

Every story about rising power bills blames data centers.

Very few mention *why* there is a shortage of power.

Data centers didn’t force baseload power plants to close without any reasonable backfill.

Activists and policymakers - who are now blaming data centers - did.

[Cube 2.0 @cubedpermian]

@ShaleTier7 Imagine all the nice things we could have if Jerry stuck to making sure the cowboys underperform instead of making sure natty sucks forever

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@LOBig12 How would you change the ranking?

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@MiamiCanes1971 How would you change the ranking?

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@J5_Sports1 What does your top 25 look like?

[Richard Meyer @RichardMeyerDC]

The percentage change in renewables since 2005 is pretty ridiculous, but the real story in U.S. electricity has always been the drop in coal and the rise in natural gas.

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

"So you are spending $7 trillion?"

Congress: "Yes Dave"

"And you only have $5 trillion in revenue?"

Congress: "That's correct Dave"

"And you have $39 trillion in debt plus you are spending 25% of your revenue on only interest payments?"

Congress: "That's correct Dave"

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Given that commodities are priced at the margin, all US gas would be priced based on int'l markets if still a net importer. That price is $15-20 in Western Europe. Instead, the shale revolution happened and gas in the US is $3, roughly unchanged post-Iran.
via @SStapczynski
2/5

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@SimonMahan Are you ok? Gas is $2.95. What is cheaper inflation adjusted?

[Paul Phillips @BlueFlameBlues]

@SimonMahan "In 2024, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars ever reported."

https://t.co/EZ6dlPbP4J

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@aeberman12 @AmbroserayRay Art needs a hug

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@aeberman12 @RichardMeyerDC Did you know that your “data” was a production chart showing gas climbing from 55 bcfpd to 110 bcfpd? While gas prices lagged CPI baskets? Imagine if natgas price increased?

[Fred @rfstrawn]

@aeberman12 @RealMattMoney He’s right in that price matters. Have you seen how many locations Appalachia has broken down by breakeven price?