B Ri ck

[Luke Barnett @LukeBarnett]

Every studio starting an AI division but we all just want this.

[Arkham @arkham]

IS STRC THE NEXT LUNA?

Short answer - not quite.

STRC has depegged. It’s down to $76.2, approximately 25% below par. Michael Saylor has $1.4 Billion to pay STRC dividends, but will he be able to keep the stock alive? Here’s our breakdown:

[Spencer Applebaum @SpencerApplebau]

1/ Today, @multicoin publishes our HYPE analysis and valuation

HYPE is now one of our largest liquid fund positions and we've been accumulating aggressively since February

Full report and disclosures in link. Link here -

https://t.co/tA2kwWbG9Q

[Nullable @NullableX]

再聊聊这波下跌的触发点: 从年初小龙虾这种个人 agent 开始引领的 tokenmaxxing 故事线的冷却吧.

DeepSeek 被说是中国国运的来源应该是黑神话悟空的冯骥的微博, 而为什么 DS 份量这么重, 当时 2025/1/20 其实很多人都没有意识到它超出自身技术之外的, 对世界经济主线的影响, 我记得当时出来后很多人最大的乐趣是问它关于 "天安门广场" 的问题, 看着就很无语. 还是那句老话: 很多时代转折点出现的时候, 处于时代漩涡中心的人们大多数人只会认为自己度过了一个平凡的下午.

在今天市场开始 focus 在 "AI 头部公司还有没有钱烧"上面的时候, 回头看这一切的开始其实就是 2025/1/20 前后 DS R1 公开"蒸馏"技术的那个时间点. OAI 变得完全闭源其实也是从 O1 模型开始, 当他们内部发现"蒸馏"技术后, 应该立刻意识到了这意味着什么, 所以不惜毁掉自己 "Open AI" 的牌坊也要转向闭源, 如果这个技术一直没有公开流出, 甚至出来时间晚个1,2 年, 其实美国经济这边处理最难处理的债务问题会游刃有余很多.
最好的剧本是:
美国星际之门计划成功 (估计很多人已经忘记这玩意儿了) -> 头部科技公司 CAPEX + 政府资金 = AI 基建资金洪水
-> 投资带动就业 + 消费, 数据中心的建设带动相关制造业产业链回归 (芯片, 电力, 房地产, 半导体设备, 原材料 and etc)
-> Opus 4.5 诞生, 进入 AI agent 时代
-> token 卖出高价, 全世界公司买单, 为什么? 因为你不买单你对手买单, 你对手的员工产出可以高你 10 倍. 人没办法一天写几千行代码, AI 可以轻松做到, 如果其他公司不焦虑, 华尔街可以用 AI 写一堆带着诱人 ROI 数字的研报让你们焦虑, 买单
-> 卖 token 开始带来大量盈利, token 经济开始正循环, 赚钱 -> 加大投入 -> 出现更好模型 -> 画更大的饼 -> 世界买单 -> 赚更多钱, 债务问题那时候提出来就只会让人想笑了.

而这个可行性很高的剧本没有实现, 到今天市场开始焦虑 token 投资回报率问题, 一切的起点只是因为 DS 公开了蒸馏技术, 而只要基础架构还是基于 transformer, 没有根本上的技术突破, 那蒸馏就是梦魇, 会一直缠绕着美国这边的头部 AI 模型公司.

那为什么中国要选择这种路线? DS 的开源如果说是梁文锋的个人选择, 后续的 qwen 开源, 到今天的 glm 开源权重, 这背后可以说是中国 ai 技术界的整体选择. 因为对中国来说, 只要需要硬刚工业基础的竞争都是舒适区, 开源模型权重, 那剩下的只是比拼和竞争对手的工业基础建设的成本问题了(小到一个变压器成本, 大到一条芯片生产线成本), 而这一点上美国相对中国的劣势是很大的, 而如果选择闭源, 等于是放着自己的枪不用去和对手冷兵器对砍, 当然不会这么做. 而且中国那边押注 AI 更大的押注是赌这波 LLM 代表的 AI 最强能力 -- 更高级别, 带自主决策能力的自动化 -- 普及后, 最受益的是自己最擅长的新兴制造业: 机器人, 新能源汽车, 各种智能穿戴设备 and etc.

[みるてぃ @milktealoverz]

ワンピースみてなかったから助かる

[Scarred for Life @ScarredForLife2]

THERE WILL COME SOFT RAINS (1984): Beautiful Soviet animated adaptation of Ray Bradbury's classic short story. In 2026, an automated house keeps things spick and span after a nuclear war. But its inhabitants are looking rather the worse for wear...

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

That’s a misconception:

$SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up.

Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc.

- Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers.

Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient.

From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”.

So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used.

Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage).

There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others).

So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime.

- for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players.

- scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players.

But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping.

Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when.

On top of things like this:

For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser.

Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains.

This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long.

Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Here's my current view on HYPE. Been working on it for a month or so now and still have more questions than answers. Always learning.

My view is HYPE price is a function of

1. growth in global trading volumes in general =V
Which is composed of
crypto volume growth =VC
Trad FI volume growth = VT

2. Share of trading volume = S and correspondingly SC and ST

Given the HYPE protocol it's pretty easy to make a bull case for say $400 based on both V and S growth.

At $400 further upside seems highly limited in that Hyperliquid would have so much share that further upside is impossible (something like 100x of current revenues) yet the price increase would result in basically flat net coins outstanding or a deflationary inflationary equilibrium.

So I get the bull case.

As of today my assessment is

VC growth expectations are radically too high.
VT growth is boring
Hyper liquid share of SC is pretty darn big already
Hyper liquid share or ST is almost nonexistent so does represents real opportunity.

However ST currently is NOT in anyway relevant to tradfi in any meaningful way and is basically for crypto native tradfi tourists and bucket shop customers wanting high leverage and non regular trading hours trading.

I see no chance that the bucket shop customer base is durable and sustainable nor is it a sizable when compared to the overall market volumes and never will be.

I see high barriers and competitive and regulatory headwinds for ST during regular trading hours AND willingness from existing tradfi vested interest to evolve and meet after trading hours trading volumes so I am very very bearish relative to expectations of real ST market share growth for hyper liquid

At mid 70's I think HYPE is a call option. If none of the ST gains are made the existing volumes support a 30 price. This is where I wanted to buy PURR and missed it.

So it's a call option trading for 40 that could be worth 330 or zero. (Meaning it falls from 70's to 30's if is a dud).

Is that a good buy? Risk forty to make 330. Meh. Would I short it. Nah it's not crazy. I'd love to buy at 35 in the next bear market or short at 100 in a blow off top speculative frenzy even if that occurs in a long term bull trend to 400. For now no position.

Continuing to get smarter (still mostly dumb as I'm sure I will be told as soon as I press send). Innovative disruptive things are worth watching regardless of their future. So I am doing that

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think u must be new here.

Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are.

$AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum.

They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later.

$RPI - everyone called it some meme stock.

Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals.

Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”.

Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth.

But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no.

$SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up.

Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason.

But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS.

Same hate with:

- $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady”

- $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble”

- $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock.

- $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells

- $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships”

- $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new

- $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat

- $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM

- $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom.

- $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue

- $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade

Can go on and on…

I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess).

But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again.

And the success in markets drown out the old noise.

Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.

[aapayés @aapayes]

🇵🇸Niña palestina que relevo a su madre periodista después de haber sido asesinada por el ejército sionista del apartheid israelí

Corresponsal de guerra de 11 años en Gaza Israel ha asesinado a muchísimos periodistas, incluida su madre. ¿Asesinarán a esta niña talentosa, también?

[Zionism Exposed @ZionismExposedx]

Do you remember 'All Eyes on Rafah'?

This is what Rafah looks like now, 2 years later. The IDF invaded Rafah in June 2024 and systematically destroyed everything that sustained life.

"Israel" is incompatible with humanity.

[Filtre Yok @FiltreYokMKA]

1773’te yapıldı.

Elektrik yok.
Motor yok.
Pil yok.

Ama hâlâ çalışıyor.

Gümüş Kuğu, 250 yılı aşkın süredir yalnızca yaylar ve pirinç dişlilerle hareket eden bir mühendislik şaheseri.

Bazen mühendisliğin zirvesi, elektriğin icadından çok önceydi.

[20.100 @adonowing]

Gemini (1999) dir. Shinya Tsukamoto

[ساری پیشیک @Sari_pishik]

امضای پزشکیان

[VIKARE @vikare06]

The russian 1964 adaptation of Hamlet has such a beautiful cinematography, it's insane

[Mark Gadala-Maria @markgadala]

Another incredible AI dark fantasy adaption.

Broly vs Goku

credit: rodaje.404 on TT

[AniKing @AniKing]

🚨THE MANGA HUNTER X HUNTER IS FINALLY BACK!!! STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH A COLOR PAGE

#Hxh

[B Ri ck @ri_chainnn]

@RnaudBertrand 知道吗 山东裂解为什么看起来像需求毁灭
其实在海峡封锁前到港的折扣石油就断崖式下降
（失去委内瑞拉的供给）没有廉价供给 山东炼油厂开工即亏损 没有经济效益自然不会开工 所以看起来像西方市场解读的需求毁灭
目前现存只有俄罗斯从Владивосток运出的折扣原油和非洲的少量供给

[番茄大叔🇨🇳 @uncleTomat0]

中美日知名品牌LOGO比较😂：
🇨🇳中国品牌像个动物园
🇺🇸美国品牌像个农庄
🇯🇵日本品牌像个英文课堂