SEA-CHANGE - When the best and the largest dock on Indian shores
How do large industries emerge? Where does it start? What are the early indicators? These questions took me down a rabbit hole of understanding current large industries and what prompted the SEA-CHANGE.
OBSERVATION 1 - It almost always starts with the then best in the world coming to India to set up a small base. They shape the industry and usher in long-term changes.
OBSERVATION 2 - The sea-change happens so slowly that we often miss it but then it suddenly is so large and obvious.
A few examples
1. Suzuki came to India in 1982 which started the Passenger Vehicle Revolution. (Buying a car then was akin to getting your kid's school admission in Mumbai. You need to know someone who knew someone to get in)
2. Honda came to India in 1986 which led to the Motorcycle Revolution. India was primarily a scooter market up until then and the premium to skip the line was sometimes as high as 100%
3. GE set up India's first BPO in 1996 and this is now a ~USD 300 Bn industry!
4. Astra Zenaca set up its first R&D unit outside the west in 2003 which sparked the Pharma rush
OBSERVATION 3 - They amplify all the four factors of production
1. CAPITAL - They actually risk their capital in a not so obvious cost-benefit analysis
2. ENTREPRENEURSHIP - They build an ecosystem or a supplier base who eventually go on to build larger companies
3. TALENT - They create a pull for the talent into these spaces which never existed
4. LAND/CODE - They bring along with them their best practises / the code of succeeding and share with all
OBSERVATION 4 - All of them come for price/risk mitigation (X+1) but stay on for quality and then eventually scale
OBSERVATION 5 - The government almost always helps them with incentives to kick start
And finally a THOUGHT - Is there a sea-change in the making?
I believe that the consumer hardware is potentially undergoing a sea-change. With Apple making India its primary production country, they will amplify all the factors of production.
In the not too distant future, we are likely to have a large and reliable ecosystem for anyone to build the next Foxconn, Samsung, Dyson, Xiaomi and even an Apple itself from India!
We already have some initial champions as Proof of Concept - Dixon, VVDN, Boat, UltraHuman. This is just the beginning!
Short thread on something I wish I had understood much better 10 years ago:
If you are ambitious, there are basically two games you can play at a startup
Many people early in their careers (especially those from big tech, consulting, finance) play the wrong game, and lose both
I’m so proud of the @Twitter team. We did what we said we were going to do. Our focus and self-discipline continues to improve. Thank you team! And thanks to all of our shareholders for the patience and support. 2018 is going to be a great year.
With a deepening mobile internet market, timing getting better for Indian start ups! Given that one cannot time timing, getting into business with the best Founders always the best path IMO and validated with the data below courtesy @TEDTalks