As I explained in my summation speech on the SAVE America Act during tonight’s vote-a-rama, when we fail to stop noncitizens from voting, we deprive U.S. citizens of their sacred right to vote.
Enough delay.
Enough distraction.
Enough excuses.
Pass the SAVE America Act.
While we remain deeply skeptical, let's assume that today is "the day after." What does it mean for energy stocks???
🛢️the glut narrative is dead as global oil inventories will continue to fall over the next several months, approaching "normalized" levels in the next 2 weeks and still likely all-time lows by ~ end of May (product rationing/shortages still imminent) = higher baseline for fundamental floor price ($70-$80WTI vs $60 before?)
🛢️what will prevent Iran from ever doing this again (halting flows through the most important energy chokepoint in the world with a $30,000 drone)? = political risk premium of $10-20/bbl ADDED onto the new floor price = ~$80WTI?
🛢️production shut-ins remain at ~11MM Bbl/d...for this to return we need tankers to leave the Strait, empty, and return (~2.5-3 months) = enduring impact even IF the Strait fully opens (500MM+ Bbls!)...the prospect for formation damage is not zero (especially in Iraq) and lead time to full restoration long even with adequate offtake (Kuwait said 3-4 months to normalize production)
🛢️still TBD extensive damage to refining capacity = expect higher-for-longer crack spreads and windfall for refiners/integrateds...product stocks were already low coming into the "excursion"...will take years to normalize
🛢️will the Saudis and Emirates allow Iran to "toll" the SofH and have a de facto chokehold on flows? Seems unlikely and new pipeline bypasses would take years
🛢️the ~400MM Bbl SPR release will be refilled = future demand for several years (~350k Bbl/d for 3 years?)
🛢️energy is once again relevant to large generalist US investors and many would have been hesitant to chase the recent rally = sector is now much more investable
🛢️net/net - we still believe $80WTI is reasonable for 2027, with many stocks trading at 15% FCF yields, and some even lower than when the war began
Summary: we believe that oil remains in a multi-year bull market and stocks were never discounting the recent oil price spike. Production growth will remain muted, share buybacks will continue, and our favourite names at $80WTI will be able to retire 30%-50% of their outstanding shares over the next 5 years while retaining 30-50+ years of stay-flat inventory at a time when non-OPEC production is peaking and pre-conflict OPEC spare capacity is low.
AMERICAN GLORY: Team USA star Jack Hughes shares a patriotic message after scoring the overtime goal to secure a gold medal in the Olympic men's ice hockey thriller against Canada.
As a former Special Forces Warrant Officer with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency ops—both hunting insurgents and trying to separate them from sympathetic populations—I’ve seen organized resistance up close. From Anbar to Helmand, the pattern is familiar: spotters, cutouts, dead drops (or modern equivalents), disciplined comms, role specialization, and a willingness to absorb casualties while bleeding the stronger force slowly.
What’s unfolding in Minneapolis right now isn’t “protest.” It’s low-level insurgency infrastructure, built by people who’ve clearly studied the playbook.
Signal groups at 1,000-member cap per zone. Dedicated roles: mobile chasers, plate checkers logging vehicle data into shared databases, 24/7 dispatch nodes vectoring assets, SALUTE-style reporting (Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Time, Equipment) on suspected federal vehicles. Daily chat rotations and timed deletions to frustrate forensic recovery. Vetting processes for new joiners. Mutual aid from sympathetic locals (teachers providing cover, possible PD tip-offs on license plate lookups). Home-base coordination points. Rapid escalation from observation to physical obstruction—or worse.
This isn’t spontaneous outrage. This is C2 (command and control) with redundancy, OPSEC hygiene, and task organization that would make a SF team sergeant nod in recognition. Replace “ICE agents” with “occupying coalition forces” and the structure maps almost 1:1 to early-stage urban cells we hunted in the mid-2000s.
The most sobering part? It’s domestic. Funded, trained (somewhere), and directed by people who live in the same country they’re trying to paralyze law enforcement in. When your own citizens build and operate this level of parallel intelligence and rapid-response network against federal officers—complete with doxxing, vehicle pursuits, and harassment that’s already turned lethal—you’re no longer dealing with civil disobedience. You’re facing a distributed resistance that’s learned the lessons of successful insurgencies: stay below the kinetic threshold most of the time, force over-reaction when possible, maintain popular support through narrative, and never present a single center of gravity.
I spent years training partner forces to dismantle exactly this kind of apparatus. Now pieces of it are standing up in American cities, enabled by elements of local government and civil society. That should keep every thinking American awake at night.
Not because I want escalation. But because history shows these things don’t de-escalate on their own once the infrastructure exists and the cadre believe they’re winning the information war.
We either recognize what we’re actually looking at—or we pretend it’s still just “activism” until the structures harden and spread.
Your call, America. But from where I sit, this isn’t January 2026 politics anymore.
It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.
Same price in Houston today.
- Branded spring water: collect at nearby spring, filter at plant, bottle and truck to store.
- Gasoline: Drill down 2 miles, turn sideways and continue another 2-4 miles. Run steel pipe and cement through hole. Punch small holes in pipe. Send water/sand mixture down pipe at extreme pressures to fracture rock. Separate streams of oil/gas/water at surface. Truck oil to nearest pipeline where it travels 800 miles to refinery. Treat crude to remove impurities. Heat crude to >700° to separate into different products including gasoline. Remove sulfur and other remaining contaminants. Move to large storage tank. Blend with ethanol, naptha, and other products that require complex chemistry to meet octane and clean fuel specs. Truck on specialized tanker to underground tank at gas station.