Remember what happened to consumer spending in 2008 when gas prices spiked like this?
The cost of food surged next, which completely collapsed consumer spending. 60 days later the market crashed.
🚨🚨🚨 SPY ALERT | SPY OPEX GAMMA DECAY | Saturday May 2
Last night we showed the shooting star and the flow reversal. Here's the structural layer underneath it.
Friday's weekly OPEX drained 25.5% of SPY's gamma cushion. 1.62M gamma shares and 21.49M delta shares expired in a single session. That's a quarter of the stabilizing force that was keeping price pinned near strikes with heavy open interest.
The rolloff isn't done.
Monday takes another 10.4%. Friday May 8 takes 15.1%. By monthly OPEX on May 15, 72.6% of the gamma blanket that existed Thursday is gone. The price suppression effect that kept SPY range-bound during the rally is actively decaying, one expiration at a time.
What's left: +4.74M net gamma. Still positive. Still suppressing. But the cushion that was 6.36M two days ago is now thinner than it's been since the rally started.
GEX flip sits at $713. 1.1% below Friday's close. That's the line where dealer hedging flips from suppressing moves to amplifying them.
The shooting star is the candle. The flow reversal is the confirmation. The gamma decay is the structure. All three say the same thing: the path of least resistance has shifted lower, and the options market is losing its ability to fight it.
$713 is the trigger. $700 is the accelerator. May 15 is the structural cliff.
$SPY $QQQ $VIX
We are now in the parabolic, melt-up phase. Where and when it peaks is anyone's guess. It's also the exit phase, not enter. Just remember, it's better to be a year too early, than a day too late.
If that were true, why did the April ISM Manufacturing PMI report show employment contracting at 46.4 for the 31st straight month, production slowing, exports contracting, backlogs falling, and prices exploding to 84.6, the highest reading since April 2022? The headline PMI was 52.7, but one of the biggest supports was Supplier Deliveries at 60.6, and that index rises when delivery times get worse.
In a normal cycle, slower deliveries can mean demand is overwhelming supply. In this report, the delays were tied to tariffs, oil, diesel, freight, rerouting, electronics shortages, and Middle East shipping stress. So part of the growth signal is actually supply chain friction being counted as expansion. New Orders were decent, but even ISM admitted some of that was customers ordering early to avoid price hikes. That is not significant industrial growth. That is modest demand, contracting factory labor, weakening exports, slowing production, and a major input cost shock hiding underneath a clean headline.
5-1-26 Why The Fed Can’t Really Cut Rates — Even With Warsh in Charge
with @michaellebowitz
It’s very hard for the Federal Reserve to justify cutting rates right now because economic activity is picking up, key indicators (like goods orders) are turning higher, and growth itself is creating inflationary pressure.
If the Fed cuts rates in that environment, it risks re-accelerating inflation rather than controlling it.
This is the “don’t cut” argument:
– Stronger growth → naturally higher inflation
– Oil prices around $100+ add fuel to inflation
– Inflation could drift back up to ~3–3.5%, not the Fed’s 2% target
You can’t realistically hit 2% inflation if the economy is growing at 2.5–3%. And geopolitics is keeping oil prices elevated, reinforcing this inflationary bias.
But the other side matters too—and ignoring it is a mistake:
– Gas prices at $4–$5 hurt consumers
– Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, with small businesses feeling this pressure the most
– AI-driven job disruption could weaken employment
All of this slows economic growth, which eventually reduces inflation.
So, there are clearly two opposing forces, not just inflation risk. It’s both happening at once:
– Short term → inflation pressure (growth + oil)
– Medium term → growth slowdown (rates + energy costs)
That’s why the Fed is stuck: cut too early → inflation risk, stay tight too long → growth breaks.
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"I'm Big Joe. 58. Long-haul trucker.
Been driving 18-wheelers for 34 years. Sleep in my cab. Eat at truck stops. Talk on CB radio to stay awake.
Lonely job. But someone's gotta move America's stuff.
Two years ago, I'm driving through Nebraska. 2 a.m. See a car pulled over. Hazards on.
Woman standing outside. Looking scared.
I pulled over. She backed away when she saw me. I'm 6'4", 280 pounds, covered in tattoos. I get it.
"Ma'am, I'm not stopping to hurt you. I'm stopping to help. What's wrong?"
Her car died. Phone dead. She'd been there three hours. Nobody stopped.
"Where you headed?"
"Hospital. Omaha. My daughter's in emergency surgery. I have to get there."
No hesitation. "Get in. I'll take you."
"In your truck?"
"Safest vehicle on this highway."
She hesitated. Then got in.
Drove her 60 miles out of my way. Got her there in time. She hugged me hard.
"Nobody stops anymore," she cried. "Thank you for seeing me."
Got back on the road. Couldn't stop thinking about it.
Got on the CB. Told other truckers. "We see everything out here. We should do something."
Started a code. "Code Angel" we call it. When truckers see someone broken down, stranded, in trouble, we stop. We help.
Word spread. Truckers across the country joined.
Last year, we helped 1,200 people. Dead batteries. Out of gas. Medical emergencies. Domestic violence victims escaping. Runaways needing safe transport to shelters.
We've got a network now. Truckers, CB radio, truck stops. Someone needs help? We mobilize.
Saved six lives last year. People broken down in dangerous spots. Diabetics in crisis. A kidnapping victim we spotted and reported.
But here's my favorite story.
Last month, I'm at a truck stop. Young kid approaches me. Maybe 19. Scared.
"Are you Big Joe?"
"Yeah."
"You know how to ride in a truck?"
His eyes filled. "You'd help me?"
"That's what we do."
I didn't go to San Francisco. But I got him to a trucker who was. She took him the rest of the way.
He made it. Safe.
Now there's 4,000 truckers in Code Angel. We've got an app. Dispatchers. Resources.
News called us "Guardian Angels of the Highway."
But we're just truckers. Doing what's right.
That woman in Nebraska? Her daughter survived surgery. She sends me Christmas cards every year.
The kid I helped? He's in college now. Studying social work. Says he wants to help invisible people like truckers helped him.
I'm Big Joe. I drive a truck. Sleep in parking lots. Smell like diesel.
But I learned something.
The loneliest roads are where people need help most. And the scariest-looking people are sometimes the ones who stop.
So tomorrow, if you break down, if you're stranded, if you're running from something bad,
Look for the trucks. We're watching. We're listening.
We might look rough. But we'll get you home.
Because the highway doesn't have to be lonely.
Not when 4,000 truckers refuse to drive past people in trouble."
.
Let this story reach more hearts....
.
Ai image is for demonstration purpose only.
.
By Grace Jenkins
📊WR Matchups for Week 14 Fantasy Football
▪️QB, RB, TE are also in this thread▪️
Outside WRs (left chart) and Slot WRs (right chart)
📌 Bookmark this post for Week 14 matchups
How to Interpret:
George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb's outside matchup vs DET is +4.9 PPR
Outside WRs total 4.9 MORE fantasy points vs DET than their season-long average
Want the complete breakdown with all the stock tickers and charts?
I cover entry points, risk levels, and what to watch for in a 30-minute video.
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Long-term stock market, S&P 500, outlook/trajectory
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