Mathew Allen

Passed Level II of the CFA Program 📚 Deep Value Investor 📊 Coffee Enthusiast ☕️ Weekend Athlete 🚴 Tweets are not advice.

[Thomas J. Hayes @HedgeFundTips]

Quote of the Day... #Quote #QuoteOfTheDay #Trading
https://t.co/HautsnXncm

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

Warren Buffett on How Many Stocks You Should Own:

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

Will be keeping an eye on this 👀

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

https://t.co/fAHC9ugWYm

[Thomas J. Hayes @HedgeFundTips]

I guess I can rip up these notes for my hit in an hour 😂

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

This handshake will be the cause of the next surge higher in $BABA

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

White House Adviser Hassett: When war is over, sure, Trump and Xi will get together

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

Remember as a $BABA shareholder we own 33% of ANT Group.

[CNBC @CNBC]

Ant Group unit clears regulatory step for Bright Smart takeover, sending shares up 70% https://t.co/pYiQXwqKBn

[DZ @dyz_ob]

$BABA : Morgan Stanley: China’s AI Cloud Market to Achieve a Five-Year CAGR of 72%, with Alibaba Poised to Be the Biggest Winner

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

William Garrett nailed it in 1973 when he said:

“About 25% of a stocks upward movement is due to the fundamentals, another 25% is due to the group which it belongs, and about 50% is due to market action.”

Humbling reminder for fundamental investors.

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

@quietly_rich BORING

[Zayn @quietly_rich]

the “boring” industries will pay you more than any sexy niche ever will

- freight
- insurance
- logistics
- compliance

these industries have no hype, no noise, but insane cash flow

most of them still run on outdated systems...which means even small fixes create massive ROI

they don’t want hype...they want predictability
and the person who gives them that becomes impossible to replace

i broke down how to spot these overlooked niches and plug the gaps no one else sees

like, rt & comment “BORING” and i’ll send the doc
must follow so i can dm you

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

Idea for quote of the day @HedgeFundTips . I know multiple AMA's ask about shorting overcrowded trades.

Keep up the good work with your HFT VideoCast!

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

@marketplunger1 @HedgeFundTips every time I see a soybeans chart like this I remember your story about your puts in July 2012!

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

I couldn't agree more, and I too have bet half my net worth on a select few in China 🇨🇳

[Julius Sommer @julius5207]

Let me walk you through my interpretation of where $BABA $JD $BIDU $PDD currently stand in the market cycle, based on observable signals such as price action, news sentiment, and broader investor psychology.
Admittedly, this is speculative, but I find such exercises intellectually stimulating and perhaps you’ll enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy theorizing. Who knows, there might even be some truth to my musings.

Markets are as much about narratives as they are about numbers, and sometimes, stepping back to assess the prevailing mood can reveal opportunities obscured by short-term noise.

I believe Chinese equities, particularly high-profile ADRs are firmly in the "disbelief" stage of the market cycle. For reference, this is the phase where early signs of recovery emerge, but skepticism remains so entrenched that most investors dismiss them.
The psychology here is fascinating: bad news is magnified, good news is ignored, and sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish despite improving fundamentals.

Right now, the narrative around China is dominated by:

Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: The lingering U.S.-China tensions, potential ADR delistings, and unpredictable regulatory crackdowns (e.g., Alibaba’s antitrust fines, gaming restrictions) have left investors wary.

Earnings Volatility: Recent misses from Alibaba and PDD, alongside slowing consumer spending, reinforce the perception that China’s recovery is fragile.

Structural Distrust: Many global investors now view Chinese equities as "uninvestable" a sentiment eerily reminiscent of past market bottoms where extreme pessimism created value.

Historically, the best entry points occur when:

Sentiment is at rock bottom (headlines are universally negative, positioning is overly bearish).

Valuations disconnect from long-term fundamentals (e.g., Alibaba trading at distressed multiples despite its cash flow and market dominance).

Early positive catalysts are ignored (e.g., selective policy easing, buybacks, or insider buying).

We’re seeing all three today. The market is pricing in a worst-case scenario, but China’s equity risk premium may have overshot reality.

I’m betting half my net worth on the revaluation of Chinese tech ADRs.
Feel free to check my portfolio @julius5207

[Julius Sommer @julius5207]

Let me walk you through my interpretation of where $BABA $JD $BIDU $PDD currently stand in the market cycle, based on observable signals such as price action, news sentiment, and broader investor psychology.
Admittedly, this is speculative, but I find such exercises intellectually stimulating and perhaps you’ll enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy theorizing. Who knows, there might even be some truth to my musings.

Markets are as much about narratives as they are about numbers, and sometimes, stepping back to assess the prevailing mood can reveal opportunities obscured by short-term noise.

I believe Chinese equities, particularly high-profile ADRs are firmly in the "disbelief" stage of the market cycle. For reference, this is the phase where early signs of recovery emerge, but skepticism remains so entrenched that most investors dismiss them.
The psychology here is fascinating: bad news is magnified, good news is ignored, and sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish despite improving fundamentals.

Right now, the narrative around China is dominated by:

Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: The lingering U.S.-China tensions, potential ADR delistings, and unpredictable regulatory crackdowns (e.g., Alibaba’s antitrust fines, gaming restrictions) have left investors wary.

Earnings Volatility: Recent misses from Alibaba and PDD, alongside slowing consumer spending, reinforce the perception that China’s recovery is fragile.

Structural Distrust: Many global investors now view Chinese equities as "uninvestable" a sentiment eerily reminiscent of past market bottoms where extreme pessimism created value.

Historically, the best entry points occur when:

Sentiment is at rock bottom (headlines are universally negative, positioning is overly bearish).

Valuations disconnect from long-term fundamentals (e.g., Alibaba trading at distressed multiples despite its cash flow and market dominance).

Early positive catalysts are ignored (e.g., selective policy easing, buybacks, or insider buying).

We’re seeing all three today. The market is pricing in a worst-case scenario, but China’s equity risk premium may have overshot reality.

I’m betting half my net worth on the revaluation of Chinese tech ADRs.
Feel free to check my portfolio @julius5207

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

@HedgeFundTips @mitch_lim Can't wait for the merch to come out! I hope you'll be able to ship to South Africa!🇿🇦

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

@QCompounding Send

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

Eyes on the prize, well done @HedgeFundTips ! Another fantastic interview. $CPS

[Thomas J. Hayes @HedgeFundTips]

EXCLUSIVE: I had the pleasure to interview the Chairman and CEO (Jeffrey Edwards) of one of our largest holdings - Cooper Standard $CPS. This is one you don't want to miss. I'm excited to say it exceeded all expectations I had going in! Watch here 👇
https://t.co/pPniD2huP5

[NIK @ns123abc]

🚨🚨🚨HOLY FUCK:

- BYD Zhengzhou factory will be BIGGER than San Francisco

- 10x LARGER than the Tesla Gigafactory Nevada

how the fuck will @elonmusk compete with this scale?

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

Some interesting food for thought.

[Mark Tilbury @marktilbury]

Everyone thinks Trump is guilty for this market crash.

I see something different.

What looks like economic incompetence might actually be a brilliant strategic move.

The 4D chess explanation: 🧵

[Mathew Allen @roadtomycfa]

Time to catch up on my favourite videocast @HedgeFundTips