We took a look at the latest Senate (and presidential) campaign finance reports to see who's doing well, who's struggling and who might not be running at all. Check out the latest 538 politics chat here! https://t.co/6Ds1ROSr9M
Fewer U.S. voters say Biden deserves to be reelected than said this about prior presidents early in their reelection campaigns.
Full story: https://t.co/bK1J2Uqx8q
With both presumptive nominees painting 2024's presidential contest as a test for the survival of democracy, and both claiming the other is making anti-democratic attacks, it's not a surprise that voters feel the state of democracy is in danger. https://t.co/hPRCw3N3ET
Crystal Ball: @JMilesColeman and I with a deeper look at New Hampshire, including the Trump-Haley-Biden coalitions, the turnout mix, and how the 2024 Dem schedule could be a model for the future given the NH vs. nat'l Ds dynamic https://t.co/pA7NKN1HII
Should Haley quit by late February, the 2024 Republican race would rank as the shortest highly contested presidential primary since the modern nomination process took shape in the 1970s. https://t.co/bps7EYqRxc
As important as immigration was to Donald Trump's 2016 success, though, it now appears to be an even stronger source of support for him in the 2024 primaries against former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. https://t.co/gbYsaow66C
How did Congress vote in relation to Biden’s positions in 2023? Some highlights from our latest analysis: House Republicans spent much of their floor time passing measures with little chance of becoming law. That meant they voted pretty cohesively as a party. 1/
Less than a third of Americans say they would be willing to vote for someone nominated by their party who has been charged with a felony, convicted of a felony by jury or is over the age of 80.
Full story: https://t.co/m3dp9lTrFH
📊Today 538 is releasing an updated set of our popular pollster ratings for the 2024 general election! Our new interactive presents grades for 540 polling organizations based on their (1) empirical record of accuracy + (2) methodological transparency. 1/n https://t.co/DD6W5UJejs
#Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) signed a bill into law this week that creates a new congressional map featuring two majority-Black districts, ending a nearly two-year saga over adequate Black representation in the state. Crystal Ball House ratings for LA-6 change from Safe Republican to Safe Democratic. Read the new analysis by @JMilesColeman on @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: https://t.co/w1Bay8K0Dy
While most delegates have yet to be awarded and Nikki Haley is still technically contesting the race, it’s not clear where she’ll be able to win any primaries or caucuses; New Hampshire was likely her best shot. https://t.co/vaPXdk7358
Louisiana has a new congressional map. What will that mean moving forward?
Follow updates from @FiveThirtyEight's tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting: https://t.co/JuqDj3t0UR
#NikkiHaley is dominating with moderate and independent #voters, but is it enough? Read the new analysis by @kkondik on @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: https://t.co/XReo5zG3Z9
According to 538 modeling, New Hampshire is Nikki Haley's best state in the entire country. With her loss there, Trump is now on track to win all 56 primary contests. My latest: https://t.co/yOhJIkbdQQ