@thsottiaux When a family like plan. I would like to share my chatgpt subscription with my wife, but I don't want her to have access to my chats (sometimes I use it to get ideas to surprise her hehe).
@ChatGPTapp
@alphametrico So does it mesn big EV is not trust or higher variance?
Sorry I just want to understand it better, because no trust can mean many things, like don't trust the model on this one.
But if it's variance, I think if it happens 1 out of 100, someone can think that's a good move.
@alphametrico And I don't think the weather make the odds drift from almost 50% to around 23%. Pinnacle odds remained almost the same accordingly to the app.
@alphametrico Understanding the why of these drifts is a real challenge.
From 2.05 fair odds to more than 4. I think the app needs more transparency on these variations, so the user may know the reasons of why the fair odds drifted so hard.
@cryptobasenji Fair odds drifting hard from the last reads closer to the kick off make it hard to be confident that we are placing bets where there is actually value.
@cryptobasenji Ya, I know odds from bookies will drift because money in and out, but shouldn't the fair odds be stable regardless? Or the model consider the bookies odds to calculate the fair odds. I mean, if it depends on the bookie odds, doesn't it make the model less stable?
@cryptobasenji Hey Basenji, if the last read happens 30 mins before the kickoff, shouldn't those fair odds in the last read the ones to take into consideration?
The drift is real between 4h before, 1h and 30 min before, but I don't know why they drift so hard. Sometimes it drift more than 10%