s2fcapital

Systematic Strategies Fund. Institutional digital asset investing.

[Henrik @Henrik_on_HL]

THE CFTC JUST LEGALIZED PERPETUAL FUTURES IN THE US.

HYPERLIQUID

[matthew sigel, recovering CFA @matthew_sigel]

🚨Iran to collect Bitcoin as payment for Hormuz passage: FT

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Below we can see that when Bitcoin peaked last October, the ETP flows left Bitcoin and jumped on the gold bandwagon. Now that gold has lost its mojo while Bitcoin is finding its footing, the flows have reversed. To me this is a good way to think about why gold has started acting like Bitcoin and bitcoin has started acting like gold.

[s2fcapital @s2f_cap]

@pepeXBT 🔥

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

Institutions are buying 5X the daily mined Bitcoin

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

Fundamentals continue their local strength which opens the door to mid-80s, which is the cost basis of short term holders.

Futures markets have been powering this move, these are shorter term buyers. This type of liquidity has draw backs, including whipsaw price movements to hunt liquidations.

Beware this will be a bull trap, the bottom structure has not formed yet.

From the liquidity picture I'm looking at we are around 1/3 of the way through the bear market.

[glassnode @glassnode]

New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series)

Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders.

Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution.
📉https://t.co/6wILncmLUU

[Uniswap @Uniswap]

Today, we are announcing a strategic integration in collaboration with @Securitize, to make @BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) available to trade via UniswapX through Securitize

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

Incredibly rare and bullish Bitcoin signal is firing. Mayer Multiple, perhaps the oldest Bitcoin model. It rarely hits 0.6x. Can price go lower? yes, but this is historically one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin history.

[glassnode @glassnode]

At $67.4k, more than 9.3M bitcoins are underwater. This is the highest level since January 2023.

📉 https://t.co/sA1n1wVpPR

[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission @SECGov]

TODAY at 2PM: Chairman @SECPaulSAtkins and @CFTC @ChairmanSelig will be discussing harmonization and their efforts to deliver on President Trump’s promise to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world.

Livestream: https://t.co/nIX7Qc9N0q
Event details: https://t.co/EIEvAdJanb

[Ethereum @ethereum]

ERC-8004 is going live on mainnet soon.

By enabling discovery and portable reputation, ERC-8004 allows AI agents to interact across organizations ensuring credibility travels everywhere.

This unlocks a global market where AI services can interoperate without gatekeepers.

[Altcoin Vector @altcoinvector]

Today, our Market Cycle Metric has shifted toward BTC Dominance. If this dominance sustains alongside $BTC price action, we can anticipate the subsequent moves—not only for Bitcoin but for the broader crypto ecosystem.

Bullish Environment:

(1) Sustained BTC Dominance.
(2) Rising BTC Price.
(3) Orderly rotation into ETH and the rest of the crypto market.

Bearish Environment:

(1) Sustained BTC Dominance.
(2) Dropping BTC Price.
(3) Increased market instability.

We are currently seeing the initial stages of BTC dominance. If this becomes persistent while BTC price trends upward, it could spark a broad-based bull market.

These metrics gain significant high-conviction power when combined with Network Growth and Liquidity data, all of which are available in our framework.

https://t.co/uxBfKJFhIi

[Swissblock @swissblock__]

Gold is the ultimate "spoiler alert" for Bitcoin’s price action.

Historically, the divergence between $XAU and $BTC has been a reliable leading indicator:

Bullish Divergence: Gold rallies while Bitcoin remains suppressed. Historically, this "lead-lag" effect acts as a coiled spring, resulting in a violent $BTC catch-up impulse.

Bearish Divergence: Bitcoin continues to pump while Gold begins to trend lower. This decoupling often signals liquidity exhaustion, front-running a sharp $BTC correction or cycle top.

Currently, we are seeing a clear bullish divergence. Gold is pushing highs while BTC consolidates. If history rhymes, a violent move up for Bitcoin is loading.

Keep a close eye on Gold. If we see a significant correction of its massive uptrend while $BTC completes the rally triggered by the current positive divergence, we would then enter negative divergence territory. Historically, this decoupling has signaled the end of the $BTC cycle, just as it did during the 2020/21 bull run.

[Bitcoin Vector @bitcoinvector]

However, it’s not all bad news. As we noted a few days ago, the Risk Index has reset to its minimum level (0) after cooling off from a "Massive High Risk" environment. Historically, this reset has been a reliable precursor to significant bullish expansions.

Key Takeaways:
- Network Growth & Liquidity: Trending downward (-)
- BTC Dominance: Still missing (-)
- Market Trend: Remains in the "Red Big Area" (-)
- Risk Index: Sitting at 0 (+)
- High instability, with the Impulse metric flipping periodically between positive and negative (-)

How to position ourselves over the coming weeks and what to keep on your radar:

- Avoid the Speculative Noise: Don't be lured by small-cap rallies while the "Engine" ($BTC) remains stagnant. In this environment, capital preservation is the priority until leadership is clear.

- Monitor the $89.3k Floor: This is our line in the sand. We need to see high-volume defense or a swift "wick" recovery if we dip below it to maintain the bullish bias.

- Watch for the Network Pivot: Price is a lagging indicator; adoption is leading. We are waiting for the moment Network Growth and Liquidity stop their decline and begin to curl upward.

- Wait for the "Recovery" Signal: A structural transition from the "Red Big Area" to a "Recovery" state in the Market Trend will be the definitive green light for a sustained move.

- The Risk Index at 0 is a massive long-term gift, but timing is everything. Don't rush the process—let the market build its foundation first.

Conclusion: While the Risk Index reset offers a massive long-term opportunity, the lack of structural foundation and BTC leadership suggests we aren't out of the woods just yet. Patience is the play while we wait for the "Engine" to restart.

[Ethereum @ethereum]

Ethereum is the #1 choice for global financial institutions.

Over the last few months, adoption has accelerated. Here are 35 stories of how institutions are building on Ethereum.

1/ @krakenfx launched xStocks on Ethereum, issuing tokenized versions of popular U.S. stocks and ETFs as ERC-20 tokens.

Kraken’s eligible clients can now deposit and withdraw fully collateralized equities, directly on Ethereum.

2/ @OndoFinance launched Ondo Global Markets on Ethereum with 100+ tokenized U.S. stocks & ETFs.

24/7 access to programmable equities, backed by real securities, is now available alongside DeFi integrations for lending, trading, and more.

3/ @ChinaAMC_HK launched its Select USD Money Market Fund on Ethereum, one of the first tokenized funds from a major Chinese asset manager.

One of Asia’s largest firms (over $449B AUM) now provides access to high-quality, short-term USD instruments with 24/7 settlement.

4/ @Fidelity introduced the FDIT tokenized money market fund on Ethereum.

The Fidelity Digital Interest Token (FDIT) brings the bank’s investors the speed of onchain settlement alongside the stability of traditional instruments.

5/ @Google announced the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), enabling AI agents to autonomously execute payments using stablecoins on Ethereum.

Built in collaboration with The Ethereum Foundation, Coinbase, MetaMask, and others, AP2 allows AI to transact securely, bridging the gap between automated intelligence and finance.

6/ @UBS, @PostFinance, @sygnumofficial, and the Swiss Bankers Association successfully piloted Deposit Tokens on Ethereum.

By demonstrating legally binding cross-bank settlement on Ethereum’s public infrastructure, the proof-of-concept paves the way for programmable, instant, cross-institution settlement.

7/ Santander’s @openbank_es launched ETH trading services in Germany, allowing customers to buy, sell, and custody ETH directly through their bank accounts.

This integration is a strong signal of institutional confidence in ETH under MiCa regulation.

8/ @AmericanExpress launched Amex Passport, blockchain-based travel stamps minted as NFTs on Ethereum L2 @base.

Cardholders can now create an onchain record of experiences and memories from international trips, blending loyalty rewards with digital ownership.

9/ The first tokenized S&P 500 Index Fund licensed by @SPDJIndices, SPXA, was launched by @centrifuge on Base.

10/ SWIFT and 30+ banks are designing a blockchain ledger to support tokenized assets and real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments alongside existing financial systems, starting with a prototype with Consensys.

@swiftcommunity connecting 11,500+ institutions globally will create a bridge between traditional finance and onchain value.

11/ @SocieteGenerale FORGE, an integrated subsidiary of the 161-year-old commercial bank, deployed EURCV & USDCV lending and trading on Ethereum DeFi protocols Morpho and Uniswap.

One of the largest custodians in Europe now provides institutional-grade collateral and liquidity for DeFi markets.

12/ @Stripe expanded its crypto support on Ethereum to include stablecoin-based subscriptions and recurring billing.

Hundreds of thousands of companies that use Stripe can now accept USDC for subscriptions with automatic renewals, building on Ethereum for lower-cost payments with near-instant settlement.

13/ @Securitize and @FGNexusio tokenized the FGNX stock on Ethereum, representing the first NASDAQ-listed preferred equity issued fully onchain.

Ethereum is the platform to build programmable assets that bring public markets to the digital age.

14/ @AntGroup, the fintech behind @Alipay, launched @JovayNetwork, a L2 for institutional tokenization.

The company behind one of the world's largest retail platforms is now building global institutional settlement for tokenized assets on Ethereum.

15/ @jpyc_official launched the world's first yen-pegged regulated stablecoin on Ethereum.

Complaint, programmable yen transactions are now available worldwide, backed 1:1 by yen reserves under Japan’s Payment Services Act.

16/ @BNYglobal and Securitize announced a tokenized AAA-rated CLO fund on Ethereum.

Institutional credit moving onchain brings liquidity and transparency to traditional asset classes.

17/ Google partnered with @Polymarket, integrating onchain prediction market data to Google search results.

The largest search provider now leverages the Ethereum ecosystem as a primary source of truth.

18/ @StartaleGroup released the Startale App, a SuperApp for @soneium's growing Ethereum L2.

Mainstream users in the Soneium L2 ecosystem can now access simple onchain interactions and rewards with a unified platform for wallets, assets, and apps.

19/ @jpmorgan migrated its tokenized deposit product, JPM Coin (JPMD), from its internal permissioned blockchain to Base.

Moving from a private chain to an Ethereum L2 will meet demand from JPMorgan’s institutional clients for payments, collateral, and margin settlement on public infrastructure.

20/ @Mastercard announced it will build on Ethereum L2 @0xPolygon to expand its Crypto Credential program to self-custody wallets.

Working with @mercuryo_io, the expansion will allow Mastercard users to send crypto using verified, human-readable aliases.

21/ @Amundi_ENG, Europe’s largest asset manager ($2.75T AUM), launched a tokenized share class of its euro money market fund on Ethereum mainnet.

Bringing traditional cash management onchain unlocks 24/7 settlement and composability for euro-denominated capital.

22/ Sony Bank announced plans to launch a USD-pegged stablecoin on @soneium, its Ethereum L2, in early 2026.

From gaming to finance, Sony is building its ecosystem’s home base on Ethereum.

23/ @WisdomTreeEU introduced the world’s first physically-backed ETP for @LidoFinance Staked Ether.

The fund will provide European investors with regulated exposure to the spot price of stETH and its ETH staking rewards.

24/ The @CFTC announced a pilot program that will allow ETH, BTC, and USDC to be used as collateral in US derivatives markets, alongside new guidance on using tokenized assets as collateral.

This marks a significant shift in how ETH and other digital assets can be integrated into regulated US markets.

25/ @BlackRock filed for a staked ETH ETF.

Following the success of their spot ETH ETF, this filing seeks to unlock the value of Ethereum's native staking reward rate for traditional investors.

26/ The @ADI_Foundation, backed by IHC, announced the mainnet launch of institutional L2 @ADIChain_, part of the @zksync Elastic Network.

Supported by the UAE's largest conglomerate, ADIChain will host the country's regulated stablecoins and aims to bring 1 billion people onchain across the Middle East, Asia and Africa.

27/ JP Morgan launched MONY, their first tokenized money market fund, on Ethereum mainnet.

The firm seeded the fund with $100M of its own capital, signaling their commitment to public chain tokenization.

28/ @coinbase announced Coinbase Tokenize, built on Base, as their new end-to-end institutional platform for tokenizing RWAs.

Combining issuance, custody, compliance, trading, and infrastructure, the new product will streamline the process of bringing assets like tokenized stocks, equities, funds, and real estate onchain in the Ethereum ecosystem.

29/ @RobinhoodApp added 500 tokenized assets on @arbitrum, bringing their platform to nearly 2000 assets tokenized.

With over $14M in total tokenized value, Robinhood continues deepening their integration with Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem.

30/ @BlackRock, @Mastercard, and @FTI_Global partnered with the ADI Foundation in the UAE, builders of the ADIChain L2.

The group will explore tokenized asset structures, digital asset regulatory frameworks, stablecoin settlement, and cross-border payment infrastructure.

31/ @SoFi became the first national US retail bank to issue a stablecoin (SoFiUSD) on a public, permissionless blockchain.

Launched on Ethereum, SoFiUSD will first be used for faster, cheaper internal settlements for the fintech giant and its partners.

32/ @telcoin launched eUSD on Ethereum and Polygon, a regulated U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by Nebraska state-chartered digital asset depository institution Telcoin Digital Asset Bank.

The launch marks another milestone in U.S.-regulated banks issuing stablecoins directly on public blockchains, bringing traditional regulated banking to the Ethereum ecosystem.

33/ @Grayscale distributed the first ETH staking rewards to ETHE ETF shareholders.

In a first for US regulated products, investors received Ethereum’s native yield directly, proving that staked ETH ETFs can deliver the economic utility of the network.

34/ @MorganStanley filed for a Staked Ether ETF, doubling down on its crypto strategy.

One of the world’s largest wealth managers is moving beyond spot exposure to capture Ethereum’s native staking yield for clients, signaling a shift to productive participation.

35/ The ADI Foundation partnered with M-Pesa to bring 60M+ users onchain.

Africa’s largest mobile money platform is integrating blockchain rails to power instant cross-border payments and stablecoin transactions, merging massive fintech scale with Ethereum’s global settlement layer.

—

Ethereum is the trusted, global settlement layer for real-world adoption, used by institutions, governments, and enterprises worldwide.

Learn more about building on the institutional liquidity layer: https://t.co/jUshBvAXKa

[Bitcoin Vector @bitcoinvector]

The macro setup for $BTC is looking incredibly familiar.

We’re seeing the Risk Index stabilize in the safe zone while the Impulse metric is igniting. This fractal looks exactly like the start of the April 2025 rally.

The big question: Are we front-running the next All-Time High?

[Altcoin Vector @altcoinvector]

SOL’s impulse ignited on Jan 3rd, sustaining a strong uptrend for several days. However, as momentum starts to show signs of exhaustion, it’s the ideal window for de-risking or locking in profits.

[Tyler @TylerDurden]

I don’t remember a time when cryptocurrency structurally was better than now.

[Bitcoin News @BitcoinNewsCom]

JUST IN: Bloomberg analysts have increased their odds of a spot #Bitcoin ETF being approved this year from 65% to 75%. 👀

They put the odds of it being approved by the end of 2024 at 95% 🙌