9/24/2026: The market message? Focus on the leaders!
- Yieldsmaxxing! 2,5,10 and 30 years all pushing higher.
- Markets had an overnight gap down but I would say it survived the stress test.
- Leadership is really standing out at this point.
- $AMD is your current market leader with $INTC $TSM $NVDA $TER $MRVL $MU also holding their own in the semi/memory space.
- $TXG $NTRA $CDNA $TWST very impressive action continues to come from the genomics stocks.
- $CRWD $PANW $NET $OKTA $RBRK impressive group move from the cybersecurity group.
- Energy names tried to rebound today but that group is very news drive and not something I find myself playnig at the moment. $VLO $MPC $XLE $XOP
- $XLK acts perfectly fine here.
- $HPE pushing out to a new high today, $DELL into the 20sma. Should be a group to keep on watch.
- $PLTR $MSFT $NOW $TEAM software names may not have to lead but constructive action coming from those names.
- $META less than 3% from an ATH carrying the torch for the communication sector $XLC. Lets see if $GOOGL wants to hold onto its own 200sma.
- $IWO bounced at it's 200sma today and small caps are very shorted at the moment. Could that help fuel and oversold bounce?
- Traction has been a little easier to come by despite bonds falling through the floor.
- Confusing market but price is pointing to higher prices so I'm remaining optimistic unless something meaningful changes
The loser has more in common with the winner than with the person sitting on the sidelines.
The winner and the loser each had the courage to try. Both risked embarrassment. Both were willing to face uncertainty. Both were stubborn enough to continue.
Success is endurance in disguise. It belongs to the person who can absorb the losses without absorbing the identity of "loser." It's the courage to start — and to stick with it — that is the real separator. Results tend to find the person who stays in the game.
The sidelines are safe, but sterile. Nothing grows there.
Overcoming this mental blindness requires you to accept the temporary discomfort of not knowing the answer right away, because sitting with the unknown actually helps you build an accurate picture of reality.
That patience protects your projects from expensive mistakes, since a correct choice always beats a fast one. What major decision are you currently rushing just to get it over with?
I'll keep this short. Unfortunately, on August 3rd, I was taken off the phase 1 clinical trial at MD Anderson since the disease continued to progress. Waiting 2 months to assess the efficiency and coming up short handed means that I lost a lot of ground to cancer and I did.
I am back at Mayo with chemo therapy treatment that kicked off 2 weeks ago.
It's difficult to post these updates. I am struggling and haven't been able to live a normal, suffering free days since early June.
I am not physically the man I was just 3 months back, lost tons of muscle weight, it's the thing cancer comes after but I am still trying to stay standing and fight.
When I take a step back and look at the market of 2026, this is probably one of the 'harder' years. Aside from an easy momentum run in April + May, the rest of the year for swing and position traders have mostly been treading water.
One other observation I've made is how crazy high the ADR % of these 'liquid Stocks' have gotten.
Also observed that things like 'orderly consolidative action' and 'textbook VCPs' have been few and far between this year (maybe I haven't looked hard enough at the opportunity set so I could be wrong). Rather, we've seen much more violent undercuts and V-shape rallies. Hence, we're seeing more 'trade the trader' moments - indication of an increasingly crowded market.
Look at the price action of 2023-25 and compare to this year, it does feel like a long time since we've seen nice, tight, orderly action in the strongest names.
Intuitively, the way to reset all this is a prolonged correction phase to wipe out the excess, bring the ADR % of these leading stocks down just by nature of less crowded participation (because in severe corrections phases, most will give up).
If you've managed to outperform by a good margin so far this year, I'd say job well done!
(Random thoughts by Clementine)
I'm in the new Market Wizards book!
This book series was a huge inspiration and motivation when I first read them in 2011 when I was struggling and being included myself is a massive honor, thanks to @jackschwager and @gfc4!
I'm also very lucky that I found two trading communities early in my journey @PradeepBonde and @IUTraders that in hindsight turned out to be Market Wizard factories!
I haven’t had a serious drawdown since the 1980s—just a few single-digit down years in over three decades. How? A deep respect for risk and unconditional patience.
A few key rules:
1. Always cut losses short - no big losses. no exceptions!
2. Only trade large on the heels of smaller trades working
3. Always trade progressively smaller when
trades aren't working
4. Never average down
5. Never let a good-size gain turn into a loss
6. No forced trades - no style drift
A bit of an expectation breaker for me today. It felt like things were improving, but:
Indexes MUCH weaker than I wanted to see.
Crypto potentially failed breakouts
$SMH struggling with 50
Leaders thinning not broadening
Obviously blistering action in $FSLY, $DOCN, $SNDK etc, but felt like these leaders are significantly isolated:
It's very choppy elsewhere. Better be in the right names or else it's been tricky.
Big flush to rip the bandaid off? Would be nice!
imagine you’re Travis Kalanick
you built Uber from nothing into a $70 billion company and changed how every city on earth moves
then in the worst three weeks of your life, family tragedies hit, and five of your investors hand you a letter demanding you resign
so you step down
the board replaces you, your successor and board sell off the self driving division you created, the thing you believed was Uber’s entire future
gone
$4 billion to Aurora
the mainstream media tries to write your obituary: toxic culture, bad leadership, and a cautionary tale
silicon valley moves on
as they always do
but you don’t
you don’t really forget
you go quiet, completely quiet
you take $150 million and buy a ghost kitchen company called CloudKitchens
you raise over a billion dollars, hit a $15 billion valuation, build a company with thousands of employees
and nobody even knows the name
eight years in stealth, employees aren’t even allowed to put your company on their LinkedIn
then today you rename the company Atoms, and it’s not a kitchen company anymore
it’s a robotics company
1. food
2. mining
3. transport
your first move?
acquiring Pronto
the autonomous vehicle startup
built by Anthony Levandowski, the same engineer you originally swooped away from Google to build Uber’s self driving program
oh and he went on to deploy 100+ autonomous trucks for one of the largest materials companies on earth
now he’s coming back to work with you
and the reports say Uber itself
the same company that pushed you out, is now backing you to go after self driving harder than Waymo
the guy they removed is the guy they end up needing
poetic justice
your framework aka everything in civilization is mined or grown, manufactured and moved
you call it the golden age
your manifesto ends with three words:
“I never left”
eight years of silence
then this
but here’s what people keep getting wrong about your situation
everyone wants to call it a comeback or a revenge story
it’s neither
you just went quiet and built for eight years while everyone who wrote you off had stopped paying attention
that’s not revenge, that’s just what true builder obsession looks like
most founders would’ve stayed bitter
most would’ve written a book and done a podcast tour, most would’ve taken the $2.5 billion in shares and disappeared off to a beach or Epstein’s island
you didn’t do any of that
you just kept building
and now the same people who pushed you out need you again
so whether you love him or hate him
the most dangerous person in any room is the one who goes quiet yet never stops building
karma is real
welcome back Travis
Your entire life will change when you realize it’s never too late. You can wake up and choose to see things differently. You can completely reinvent your life. Too late is an internal fantasy, not an external reality. Every time you think it’s too late, it’s probably still early.
You remember the Darvas box but do you remember he was doing good in the market so he moved to NY thinking more info = better but it made him overtrade and lose money so he went back to just a newspaper and a telegram and that’s when he made his millions
I posted this 2 years ago.
One of my favourite and hopefully most inspiring posts ever.
Give it a share if you like, it could really help someone struggling right now.
On balance, Bitcoin can take a couple of months to bottom even after a sharp decline. A couple of things to watch:
MSTR has tended to lead Bitcoin at key turning points.
IBIT — the largest Bitcoin ETF with roughly $69B in assets — has seen about $2.7B in outflows over the past 21 days. I’d like to see those fund flows stabilize and shift positive for a reliable bottom.