Tommy

[Tommy @scoobs777]

Predictions for 2026:
- two RBA rate hikes.
- unemployment rate to 5%
- AUD/USD to 0.70
- ASX200 end the year @ 8000
- house prices nationally to fall ~10%
- underlying inflation trending back above 4%

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

Of the 7 days I have been in Special Housing Unit I have been allowed my daily 1 hour exercise only twice.

For 5 of the days I remain in my cell for 24 hours, ignored fully, never even seeing a guard.

Isn’t this illegal?

Isn’t my one hour of yard enforced by law?

Where are my rights?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

That’s what he said

[Wilfred Reilly @wil_da_beast630]

His strongest argument tbh.

[Tommy @scoobs777]

@elonmusk Next time on Prison Break…

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

Reminds me of forced selling in credit markets where securities tank but value remains intact. Some of my best days were riding out the technicals and holding/ adding through the dislocation.

[Campbell Newman @CampbellNewman]

It's not your money @AlboMP.

It belongs to Australian's saving for their retirement.

And it should be managed with that sole purpose in mind.

Not as a slush fund for your political objectives.

[christopher joye @cjoye]

Some important maths on inflated bank valuations got trimmed out of my AFR column - full analysis below… One reason the banks trade at globally anomalous multiples is the interaction between compulsory super flows and APRA's performance test. With the superannuation guarantee climbing to 12 per cent in July 2025, the system's $4.5 trillion in assets now dwarfs the ASX's $3.3 trillion capitalisation, and solid nominal wage growth has turbocharged inflows. Treasury itself concedes the Your Future Your Super test creates powerful incentives for funds to hug their benchmarks, converting rivers of new member money into price-insensitive, index-weight purchases of the banks that dominate the ASX 200.
Accordingly, the banks' pricing premium reflects regulatory plumbing and flow dynamics, not fundamentals. That breeds vulnerabilities if and when investors refocus on intrinsic worth. A record housing slump coinciding with a default cycle and policy changes that hammer capital gains could usher in an enduring stretch of sub-par returns.
It makes, for example, zero sense for CBA to be trading at 3.5 times book value. With the cash rate at 4.35 per cent and the 10-year Commonwealth bond yield around 4.5 per cent, a conventional CAPM cost of equity for CBA (with a beta of about 0.9 and an equity risk premium of 5-6 per cent) lands at roughly 9.5-10.5 per cent. Against a 13.6 per cent return on equity, CBA genuinely earns a spread of only 3.5-4 percentage points over its cost of capital.
Plugging that into the standard residual-income identity, P/B = (ROE − g)/(COE − g), with long-run growth of 3 per cent justifies a multiple of (13.6 − 3)/(9.5 − 3), or 1.6 times book — roughly where NAB and Westpac sit, and less than half CBA's actual rating.
So what does 3.5 times book imply? Inverting the same identity, the market is pricing one of two things. Either CBA's cost of equity is (13.6 − 3)/3.5 + 3, or 6 per cent — an absurdly skinny equity risk premium of 1.5 percentage points over the risk-free rate for an 18 times leveraged institution with a return on assets of just 0.77 per cent. Or, holding the cost of equity at a sane 9.5-10 per cent, investors are implying a sustainable ROE of 3.5 × (9.5 − 3) + 3, or 26-27 per cent — double what CBA has ever delivered and about triple the system's capacity in a mature, APRA-capitalised, low-credit-growth economy.
Hold on to your hats...

https://t.co/GFZ4Gj8KPz

[Tommy @scoobs777]

@DschlopesIsBack A majority of Aussies are mentally ill with TDS. Especially the muppets down in Melbourne.

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

UK police really don’t want you to share this video of their officer arresting an assault victim, while letting his attackers go free

[Gad Saad @GadSaad]

It’s amazing to see Muslim nations doing well in the World Cup but especially England, Canada, and France.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Legacy Media types are calling this Alex Karp interview a “crash-out” so that’s your first clue that he is actually saying something extremely insightful. He is articulating what real “AI safety” looks like in the enterprise.

Not abstract alignment research or certification by a government-run DMV for AI. Real AI safety for businesses is the ability to control their own data, model weights, and compute — so a frontier lab can’t hoover up their proprietary knowledge and turn it into their next product.

As Karp explains, technical customers want “control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha. They want to know they own the means of production, and it’s not being transferred to someone else.”

Don’t think that can happen? Just look at Figma. According to The Information, Anthropic “blindsided” its then-business partner with the launch of Claude Design. Figma’s founder said Anthropic had not been “consistently honest” with them. Anthropic’s chief product officer had even served on Figma’s board until three days before the launch of Claude Design. Figma’s stock has fallen sharply this year while Anthropic’s valuation has surged.

This isn’t an isolated example. Anthropic has launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, and of course Claude Code — each expanding into categories previously served by companies building on top of their models. The pattern is consistent: watch where value is being created, then move in directly. Dominate the model layer, then use that position to capture the most lucrative verticals.

Dario has argued that open source models powerful enough to compete with Anthropic are “dangerous.” But dangerous to whom? Not to enterprises that want to retain control over their data and workflows. Dangerous to a business model that benefits from customers having few real alternatives at the model layer.

As Karp exposes, true enterprise safety isn’t trusting that a lab’s future roadmap won’t include your business. It’s retaining the ability to choose — at the model layer — who gets to see and use your alpha.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 LMFAO! President Trump just dropped this hilarious post

“I LOST TO TRUMP”

🤣💯

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Fact check. TRUE.

[Tommy @scoobs777]

@grok @GNRSAURUS @zerohedge @grok Does this only occur when market moves are to the downside?

[Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 @TulsiGabbard]

@saltybathx365 He lied to Congress in 2024. There is a path.

[Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 @TulsiGabbard]

@MichaelBiundo Seeing who is choosing NOT to report on it tells the story.

[Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 @TulsiGabbard]

Yesterday was my final day as Director of National Intelligence. I declassified and released never-before-seen documents exposing the truth about Fauci directing millions of US taxpayer dollars to fund dangerous gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab, worked with the Intelligence Community to suppress the truth about his actions and hide the virus’ lab-leak origins, and lied to Congress while under oath in 2024. It’s time you know the truth. Go to https://t.co/tVwWp0TxZ4 to see for yourself.

[Secretary Kennedy @SecKennedy]

Thank you, Tulsi, for documenting Dr. Fauci's central role in causing the COVID-19 pandemic — among the most consequential crimes in human history.